Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
209 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms this evening
some of which could be strong or severe. High pressure then
provides a few days of dry weather. Unsettled conditions return
during the holiday weekend. Above normal temperatures will
continue.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for the northwestern half of
the forecast area through 01z this evening.

To our north and west, a cold front draped through the southern
Great Lakes is developing convection just south of Lake Erie
and through eastern Indiana. The cold front will drag through
the area this evening with support aloft in the form of a
passing upper-level shortwave trough. Despite expansive cloud
cover through midday, destabilization is occuring under
strengthening mid-level wind field. Thunderstorms developing
through northeast Ohio this afternoon will move through the
forecast area through this evening, possibly persisting into the
early overnight hours. Some mid- level drying, evident on the
morning ILN sounding, and developing DCAPE to the tune of ~800
J/Kg would suggest that damaging wind would be the primary
threat this evening. Cannot, however, rule out the potential for
large hail as the bulk of the CAPE is centered over the hail
growth zone near 400-500mb.

Thunderstorms should weaken by midnight as instability wanes,
and only a few showers at most should remain along the southeast
ridges overnight. Fog is a possibility, especially across the
north, if clouds can clear a bit faster than expected. Temperatures
will continue to run above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A pattern shift is in the works for the latter part of the week,
bringing drier weather areawide. In the wake of tonight's cold
front, showers will have all but dwindled by Wednesday morning.
Dewpoints will fall back into the mid 50s, allowing conditions
to feel a little less muggy. From there, surface high pressure
and ridging aloft will keep the forecast dry through Friday.
Temperatures will steadily climb back up to well above average
by Thursday and Friday, with higher humidity levels returning by
the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As quickly as the dry weather arrives this week, it appears it
will come to an end heading into the holiday weekend. Moisture
gets pumped northward around a potential Gulf tropical system,
and waves riding over the flattened ridge will provide support
for several rounds of precipitation. Given the potential for
high PWAT air and warm rain processes, there is some potential
for at least isolated areas of excessive rainfall. Will continue
to monitor this over the coming days.

Temperatures will be moderated back down some by the addition of
clouds and rain showers, but will remain at least a few degrees
above average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR ceilings have been stubborn and not sure how much
improvement there will be before a line of developing showers
and thunderstorms moves through during the evening hours. Have
gone pessimistic with TAFs remaining MVFR into the mid/late
afternoon. Some sites may have a brief VFR period, but
MVFR/local IFR conditions are possible in any thunderstorms that
develop during the late afternoon and evening hours. Behind the
front low ceilings are expected to develop with leftover low
level moisture, and a period of IFR ceilings appears likely
through Wednesday morning.

OUTLOOK...
Restriction potential returns with weekend low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
349 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-230800-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-
Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-
Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
349 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front during the afternoon
and evening. A few of the thunderstorms could produce strong to
damaging wind gusts, with large hail a secondary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
411 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

PAZ007-013-014-222045-
Butler-Lawrence-Mercer-
411 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WIND
WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTIES...

At 411 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near New Wilmington,
or 8 miles northeast of New Castle, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and hail up to the size of nickels are
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grove City...                     Slippery Rock...
Harrisville...                    Plain Grove Township...
West Liberty...                   Volant...

This includes  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 75
and 84.

LAT...LON 4107 8028 4114 8026 4114 8000 4105 7998
      4099 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 276DEG 18KT 4109 8023

Kramar

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
418 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

OHZ041-PAZ013-020-222045-
Columbiana-Lawrence-Beaver-
418 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND
WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIANA...NORTHWESTERN BEAVER AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

At 418 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Campbell to 8 miles
north of East Palestine to 6 miles north of New Waterford. Movement
was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Castle...                     East Palestine...
Ellwood City...                   Oakwood...
New Castle Northwest...           Big Beaver...
New Beaver...                     Ellport...
Bessemer...                       Koppel...
Wampum...                         South New Castle...

This includes the following highways...

  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 1 and 11.
  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 10 and 14.

LAT...LON 4084 8023 4081 8050 4090 8059 4090 8052
      4106 8052 4106 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 291DEG 27KT 4102 8051 4095 8053 4093 8058

Kramar

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
456 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

OHZ068-222130-
Noble-
456 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WIND WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NOBLE COUNTY...

At 456 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Caldwell,
moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and small hail are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Caldwell...                       Dudley...
Dexter City...

This includes  Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 18 and 25.

LAT...LON 3975 8156 3973 8136 3964 8143 3964 8145
      3965 8145 3965 8147 3964 8147 3964 8148
      3969 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 287DEG 10KT 3970 8154

Kramar

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
502 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

OHZ039>041-222130-
Tuscarawas-Columbiana-Carroll-
502 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND
WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN COLUMBIANA...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND
NORTHERN TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES...

At 502 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near North Canton to near East Sparta to
near Strasburg. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 55 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dover...                          Minerva...
Strasburg...                      Augusta...
Malvern...                        Bolivar...
Mineral City...                   Dellroy...
Parral...                         Zoar...
North Georgetown...               Atwood Lake...

This includes  Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 86 and 94.

These storms may intensify, so monitor local radio or television
stations for additional information and possible warnings from the
National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4065 8147 4067 8146 4066 8144 4065 8144
      4065 8124 4072 8124 4073 8109 4090 8109
      4090 8093 4072 8096 4052 8120 4058 8166
      4060 8167 4063 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 269DEG 25KT 4090 8135 4073 8141 4063 8153

Kramar