Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
101 PM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder persist
through Tuesday. Dry weather should briefly return Wednesday
under high pressure before another weather system returns the
chance of rainfall late Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Slow moving showers and thunderstorms on the back side of the
mid level low pressure will decrease in coverage toward dusk.
With spokes of energy rounding the cyclone can not rule out a
shower during the overnight period across western Pennsylvania
and northern West Virginia. High res models depict what in the
cool season is a TROWAL setup along lake erie, thankfully all
the rain associated with that feature will stay north of our
area.

Tuesday will be more of the same scattered showers and storms
during the peak heating hours. Column moistens up with PWATS
pushing 1.6" and storm motion remaining less than 10 knots.
Hard to pinpoint any particular area, but high water remains a
threat and confidence in coverage precludes a flash flood watch.
The good thing regarding Tuesday is jet dynamics won't be as
favorable being on the anticyclonic shear side so coverage won't
be numerous. Under morning sunshine temperatures will climb
early and top our in the lower 80s much like today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Once the diurnal trend sets in Tuesday evening showers will
dissipate. H5 heights build to 588dm Wednesday, so once any
valley fog erodes look for a very warm afternoon. H8 temps
approach 16C which corresponds to values in the upper 80s save
for the mountains and north of interstate 80. Wednesday will be
the only dry day of the week.

A digging mid level trough returns moisture /mid and high
clouds/ Wednesday night. This should offset fog formation save
for the mountains and deeper river valleys. Thursday is a tricky
forecast as a baroclinic zone sets up north of Lake Erie with
impulses ridging south of it. There will be plenty of moisture
to tap for shower and thunderstorm development. Downbursts are
possible given delta thete-e values of 20K between 10-20KFT. For
now will keep chance pops, largely because atmosphere will be
messy with residual outflow boundaries and they are pegging a
lot of DCVA pockets. Could see pop numbers increase as we head
through the week, but for now, will keep continuity going
perhaps a tweak upward over eastern Ohio.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:

- Wet Weather Returns Thursday night - Saturday
- Dry Sunday and Monday
- Temperatures above normal

GEFS/EPS have a good handle on the late week weather system, but
diverge on arrival of the next system just beyond day 7.
Surface cold front has been pushed back 12 hours from the
forecast late last week. It will be crossing Thursday night into
Friday. With this timing, potential for severe weather is very
low. There will be plenty of clouds not to mention best upper
level dynamics cross through the Great Lakes. GEFS has over a
60% probability of greater than 0.01" of rain which is in lock
step with forecast, so may tweak pops a smudge higher given
increased confidence.

After the front crosses Friday morning, mid level trough remains
over the region allowing impulses to cross in northwest flow.
Will keep chance pops given cooling aloft interacting with
daytime heating. A transitory ridge arrives Sunday and Monday
allowing dry weather. H8 temps don't move much over the next
seven days, so daytime will be in the lower to mid 80s

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Timed showers and storms based on the hi res guidance, which
starts to suggest development by 18-21z but opted to maintain
VCTS at this time until confidence is better that any specific
terminal will experience a storm. Expect brief MVFR/IFR
restrictions in any t-storm, with heavy rain. Activity should
greatly diminish to isolated showers/storms by 02Z. Lingering
clouds could once again hinder fog development at some locales,
although any location that receives rain today and can manage to
clear out overnight may of course see visibility restriction.

OUTLOOK...
Occasional afternoon/evening restrictions are once again
possible Tuesday in showers/storms around the lingering upper
low. Patchy overnight fog is again possible where rain falls and
skies can clear. A mostly VFR Thursday may be followed by restriction
potential on Thursday with low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ001.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
308 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

MDZ001-OHZ050-059-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-
WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-140715-
Garrett-Jefferson-Belmont-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-
Butler-Clarion-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-
Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-
Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
308 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous slow moving showers and thunderstorms are
expected today. Locally heavy rain could result in isolated flooding,
especially in the afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ039>041-048-049-057-058-068-140715-
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Muskingum-Guernsey-
Noble-
308 AM EDT Mon Aug 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
146 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

OHZ039-131815-
Tuscarawas-
146 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WIND
WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN TUSCARAWAS COUNTY...

At 146 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Uhrichsville,
moving south at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and hail up to the size of nickels are
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Uhrichsville...                   Gnadenhutten...
Tuscarawas...                     Stillwater...
Gilmore...

LAT...LON 4039 8145 4041 8136 4033 8130 4029 8136
      4029 8144
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 341DEG 10KT 4037 8140

Kramar

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