Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
136 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An very moist and unstable airmass will lead to widespread
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall through tonight, before the
passage of a cold front early Friday morning. Dry weather and
seasonal temperatures are expected over the weekend and into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Several foci for convective development remain apparent,
including a pre-frontal trough in nern OH (where storms have
formed invof AKR/YNG), residual outflow boundaries from morning
storms (FKL/BTP/BVI) and the terrain (2G4/MGW/LBE).

Instability used up by morning convection will be replenished
quickly as dry air advects ewd in association with an
approaching shortwave trough. Amid modestly-increasing shear,
steep lapse rates and abundant moisture, numerous, short-lived
storms are expected to form in this buoyant air mass.

PWAT this morning of 2.04" was in the top five PWATs at KPIT of
all time, indicating the atmosphere contains a highly-anomalous
amount of moisture. Given slow storm movement of initial
convection, flash flooding will be possible from any storms with
no area able to be ruled out. Therefore, the Flash Flood Watch
issued for the entire region will continue.

With high PWAT and high level of free sink, wet downbursts are a
high possibility with any deep convection, especially early on
in this convective event. CAMs suggest the potential for a
cluster of storms to organize into a bowing line segment later
this afternoon, with an associated damaging wind threat.

In short, severe weather and flash flooding are being monitored,
and our 17Z special sounding will reveal additional information.

As the shortwave trough moves across late tonight, and a cold
front advances swd, showers and storms may redevelop along and
ahead of the boundary, but with lesser intensity. PoPs reflect
an overnight increase in coverage, but net impact should be
lower after midnight.

Morning showers/storms on Fri will wane thru the day as the
front continues its swd movement. Clearing sky and building high
pressure will yield a general pleasant day by afternoon for most
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build into the region by Fri evening,
scouring out moisture and providing widespread subsidence. As a
result, rapid clearing is anticipated Fri eve, and dry
conditions can be expected thru the weekend. Sat and Sun both
will feature seasonable warmth and general sun.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
After weekend high pressure, the H5 ridge will shift swwd, with
nwly mid-level flow becoming predominant. Moisture will return
to the region as shortwave troughs move progressively thru the
nwly flow. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to
the region as early as Tue and may persist daily thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Axis of ongoing thunderstorms has shifted gradually southeast
this morning and will impact MGW/LBE through 18Z with localized
IFR conditions in heavy rain. Elsewhere, given the very moist
airmass in place, early cumulus bases are surprisingly low for
this time of day/year with MVFR conditions at FKL-DUJ, but
should improve with daytime heating.

Elsewhere, rapid destabilization per visibile satellite imagery
suggests that surface based thunderstorm development is imminent
BVI-FKL, and this expected activity is only likely to further
grow upscale in coverage quickly this afternoon, eventually
impacting ZZV-PIT-DUJ. VCTS mentions will gradually become
TSRA/+TSRA in amendments once scenario becomes more clear.
Localized IFR conditions likely in heavy downpours. A few
storms may become severe with high microburst potential and
frequent lightning in scattered/numerous cells initially, with
some models showing potential for upscale growth into one or
more line segments with larger threat for strong surface winds
along surging outflow.

Lingering MVFR conditions in the wake of convection will be
reinforced by an advancing cold front, which will arrive early
morning. Additional convection (mainly SHRA) will accompany the
boundary's passage before rapid clearing as high pressure
builds.

OUTLOOK...
High pressure is expected through the weekend, with little in
the way of restrictions expected. A general VFR forecast is
anticipated.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ001.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ007>009-
     013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ001>004-
     012-021-509>514.

&&

Kramar

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1012 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013-015-016-
WVZ012-021-509>514-061415-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Clarion-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
1012 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, west central Pennsylvania,
western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon.
Storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ014-020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-061415-
Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-
Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-Fayette Ridges-Hancock-
Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-
1012 AM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon.
Storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Kramar

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
230 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

MDZ001-051915-
Garrett-
230 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GARRETT COUNTY...

At 229 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bittinger,
moving southeast at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Merrill...                        Big Run State Park...
New Germany...

Torrential rainfall also is occurring with this storm and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3958 7901 3951 7906 3948 7907 3947 7907
      3947 7909 3948 7910 3958 7922 3969 7912
      3961 7900
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 332DEG 5KT 3959 7910

TAX

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
313 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

OHZ041-PAZ020-WVZ001-052000-
Columbiana-Beaver-Hancock-
313 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIANA...SOUTHWESTERN BEAVER AND
NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES...

At 313 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Calcutta, or
near East Liverpool, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
East Liverpool...                 Calcutta...
Ohioville...                      Midland...
Chester...                        Industry...
Shippingport...                   Newell...
Georgetown...                     Hookstown...
Glasgow...                        Beaver Creek State Park...

Torrential rainfall also is occurring with this storm and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so monitor local radio or television
stations for additional information and possible warnings from the
National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4068 8067 4076 8060 4066 8031 4052 8047
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 298DEG 9KT 4069 8059

TAX

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