Freeze Warning 1, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
129 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and sprinkles are possible through most of
the morning hours. More widespread rain is expected by late
morning and through the afternoon ahead of a passing cold front.
Colder and dry on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As a shortwave trough crosses the Great Lakes today, its
associated cold front (currently across central OH) will
continue its ewd movement. Ahead of the front, warm advection on
swly flow will supply broad coverage of rain for much of the
afternoon. In its wake, temperature will drop quickly into the
50s.

Rapid drying is expected as the front crosses, with rain chances
focused mainly in the ridges this evening before ending late.
As high pressure settles in overnight, light wind, clearing sky
and drying boundary layer will combine to yield prime conditions
for radiational cooling. Complications to the temperature
forecast will come from potential overnight stratocu development
in the nrn zones downwind of Lake Erie.

Despite the complication, temperature is expected to fall into
the 30s by late tonight, and near or below freezing in many
areas, especially outside of the stratocu. It is likely that
frost and freeze headlines will be needed for some zones, which
continue to be advertised in the HWO pending headline
coordination with neighboring offices. The fly in the frosted
ointment will come from the potential stratocu in the nrn zones
that might limit cooling, and the potential for sustained wind
in the ridges that could preclude frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low clouds will increase late Tue night and remain over the
region through much of Wed as another shot of cold air spreads
across the region. Little rain is expected during this time,
although late-day showers are not out of the question on Wed
north of I-80 as strong cold-air advection promotes modest
instability. Given temperature profiles, a flake or two of snow
would not be out of the question in that region.

Temperatures both days will be below seasonal levels owing to
the continued cold advection.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Expect dry and cool weather through Fri. Rain chances will
increase over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Steadier precipitation appears as if it will remain south of HLG
and LBE, primarily impacting MGW with steady rain. Showers
elsewhere are more scattered, persisting into the evening hours
in most locations. Restrictions remain MVFR to IFR, with FKL
apparently about ready to lift out of LIFR cigs. Conditions
should rise to MVFR during the evening and VFR by midnight.
Winds will veer from the south to the west as the front moves
through, with gusts as high as 25 kt.

Outlook...
Restrictions are possible with a Wed cold front, particularly at
FKL/DUJ.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
422 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-160830-
Garrett-Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-
Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Westmoreland Ridges-Fayette-
Fayette Ridges-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-
Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
422 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maryland, east
central Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest Pennsylvania, west
central Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia
and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Areas of frost are possible late tonight. An advisory may be needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.