Tornado Warning 1, NWS Paducah, KY

807 
WWUS53 KPAH 242028
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
228 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

KYC047-242037-
/O.CAN.KPAH.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180224T2045Z/
Christian KY-
228 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL CHRISTIAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3690 8729 3704 8727 3705 8726 3707 8726
      3706 8725 3704 8725 3704 8717 3696 8717
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 238DEG 25KT 3699 8722 

$$

KYC219-242045-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180224T2045Z/
Todd KY-
228 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN TODD COUNTY...
    
At 227 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 9 miles south of Weir, or 12 miles north of Elkton,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely. 

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Todd County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 8729 3704 8727 3705 8726 3707 8726
      3706 8725 3704 8725 3704 8717 3696 8717
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 238DEG 25KT 3699 8722 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

SP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
124 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 109 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Going forecast is coming into form/on track. If anything, some of
the short term modeling has it here/pushing thru a little quicker,
which is in part why SPC has shaved the western edge of our
Enhanced (svr) risk zone. But all things remain virtually
unchanged, with increasing wind shear/instability peaking around
00Z or shortly thereafter. See linear development already upstream
over western AR, and the warm sector convection is ongoing on
into our southern border counties. Anticipate increasing
convective threat thru nightfall, continuing into early evening
hours. Still high pw's will keep the flooding rains a hazard, with
another 1-2" possible thru the end of the event (higher amounts
locally in thunderstorms). So will re-up the FFA (and FLW's) and
continue thru tmrw morning, as we monitor for severe likelihood
thru the evening hours. It looks like a quick/sharp west to east
exit in the 06z-09z time frame with all pcpn over entirely by
12z. The remainder of the short term (Sunday thru Monday night)
will be recovery time, with High pressure giving dry weather and
generally seasonal temps for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 109 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Ran with the blend and targeted the mid week rain chance,
starting Tue night and ending Thursday evening. During that time
frame, the models are increasingly signalling a wet pattern, with
another 1 to 2 inches on average possible, mainly along/south of
the Ohio river. This won't give a whole lot of recovery time from
the previous wetting, upwards to 3 days. Did go ahead and include
some elevated thunder risk late Tue night, and then again Wed
evening, as GFS shows supportive showalters and even some mucape
in the lower 1 km on the back end (time). This could result in
some locally higher totals, and depending upon how our river stems
are responding, may result in another headline/watch scenario. Not
too sold on convective chances just yet, so that's a maybe, but am
sold on some wet weather for the overall time frame.

Temps hold generally mild for this time of year, with a late week
cooldown behind the mid week storm system/wake of its departure.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 109 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Warm front lifting north will keep restricted cigs/vsbys, along
with increasing rain chances, in the forecast. Behind it, linear
convective chances increase into the evening hours, with IFR
restrictions forecast in thunderstorms for its passage. Gusty
south winds will shift to northwest overnight/with fropa, then
diminish upon clearing out/with high pressure taking over tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
     114.

IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ001>022.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
324 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-251100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
324 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds will be the main hazard. There is a risk
of a few tornadoes as well. The areas with the highest
probability for a tornado or two are southeast of a Cape
Girardeau, Poplar Bluff Missouri line into far west Kentucky,
mainly west of the Lakes, and the southern tip of Illinois.

Additional rainfall of up to 2 inches, with isolated higher
amounts possible, will result in an additional flooding risk
across the region today into tonight, especially across southeast
Missouri into west Kentucky. A Flood Watch remains in effect
through tonight for the entire region. With stronger thunderstorm
activity, Flash Flooding will be possible.

Updates and details on continued river flooding can be referenced
on the latest flood warnings and statements.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Updates and details on continued river flooding can be referenced
on the latest flood warnings and statements.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be likely this afternoon and evening.
Additional heavy rainfall and flooding reports are requested.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EDDYVILLE               37.08N 88.08W
02/24/2018  M6.07 INCH       LYON               KY   PUBLIC

            4 DAY RAINFALL TOTAL RELAYED VIA TWITTER

&&

SP