Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
619 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Update for 00z aviation only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Ridging aloft and at the surface continues to break down today, with
convection developing back to our west in central Missouri this
afternoon. May have an isolated shower/storm in far western counties
later this afternoon. Hi-res guidance, particularly the HRRR and WRF-
ARW are more robust bringing in convection to portions of the region
this evening as it propagates east/southeastward from the St Louis
area. Went with slight/low end chance Pops across northwest counties
to account for this, and will closely monitor as the trend becomes
clearer over the coming hours.

A more unsettled weather pattern is taking shape over the coming
days, as a frontal boundary to our north sags south into the area
combined with tropical moisture streaming northward from the Gulf
Coast states. Slight to chance PoPs exist nearly every period,
although convection should generally be more scattered in nature
much of the time. The greatest coverage should tend to be during the
afternoon/evening hours.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the period. However,
due to increased cloud cover and precipitation entering the picture,
high temperatures will cool a few degrees each day, with highs only
in the mid 80s by Wednesday. Low temperatures will remain up in the
mid to upper 60s the next 3 nights.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

An unsettled period of weather is anticipated, with periodic chances
of showers and storms, along with above normal temperatures.

An upper trof (just to our east) will be slow moving over the Ohio
Valley, Tennessee Valley and Gulf Coast region Thursday through
Friday. Over the weekend, the trof will move farther away, with mid
level ridging edging back over the area. At the surface, a
stationary boundary should be across the region through Friday,
lifting back to our north over the weekend.

Scattered showers and storms expected Thursday through Friday
especially with peak heating and max instability. PoPs should taper
off Friday night through Saturday, then return and increase late
Sunday through Monday, as the model consensus is for the front to
drop back south into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

had to introduce a prob30 for Tuesday around 17z. Also tempo MVFR
cigs and vsby with any storms that make it into the area.
Otherwise no big changes to TAF's.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...KH
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...KH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
316 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-152030-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
316 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms this evening and overnight
across portions of area, mainly southern Illinois and southeast
Missouri. Lightning and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

On and off thunderstorm chances of thunderstorms exists Tuesday
through the coming weekend, especially during the heat of the
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the
primary storm hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.