Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
558 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
developing along and north of northwest to southeast oriented
0-1km Mixed Layer/0-3km AGL Most Unstable Layer CAPE with
1000-3000 j2/k2. Decent updrafts with satellite/wind fields
pointing to splitting storms with better hail (up to ping-pong
size) with the right moving supercell member. For gridded forecast
for the remainder of this afternoon and early this evening, made
some northward adjustment to developing convective line untilizing
the HRRR guidance, and added mention of severe wording to the
storms in the tabular and text products for this evening.
Convective inhibition will increase, but with good moisture flux
under the cap further south, anticipate we may see some training
issues with heavy rainfall as will over southwest Indiana and part
of southeast Illinois as well.

RAP guidance suggests some significant relaxing of the moisture
flux into convective line, as slow moving shortwave over
southeast Missouri dampens slightly, and we lose the impacts of
insolation and development of a stable boundary layer later this
evening. This should slow moisture transport into the instability
gradient, inhibiting the maintenance of storm updrafts with high
theta-e air.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu
May 10 2018

Highest chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity in
the short term will come late this afternoon and this evening as a
weak mid level trof drifts ene out of southern MO and into the mid
MS River Valley. There still seems to be very little support from
the lower levels as far as any boundaries or convergence areas,
and over all moisture remains marginal with PWs running 1.2 to
1.4 inches. However, we are beginning to see some mid 60 sfc dew
points in the MO Bootheel this afternoon, and a swath of 2000-2500
J/KG CAPEs has developed out along and just east of the MS River
ahead of the mid level impulse. Therefore, will continue with at
least some isolated to scattered storm chances in those areas this
evening, until instability has a chance to wane and the mid level
trof progresses east.

12Z model consensus still has an mid/upper level ridge building
over the region as we head from Friday into and through the
upcoming weekend. The ridge will likely persist through Monday as
well. Southerly breezes near the surface will combine with ample
sunshine to push afternoon temperatures to near record levels each
day Friday through Monday. In addition, winds 15+ MPH
Friday/Saturday may require another Lake Wind Advisory in some
areas. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 Friday/Saturday may
build into the lower 90s by Sunday/Monday, with increasingly
uncomfortable humidity levels creeping in as well.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

By Tuesday, model consensus suggests the mid/upper ridge will
shift farther east toward the East Coast, and gradually allow our
flow to become more swly aloft. This will lead to increasing
moisture and better chances for diurnal convection to develop.
In addition, a low pressure system lifting north out of the
northeastern Gulf will probably add some extra moisture to the
equation with time. Thus, by mid week, scattered thunderstorms
could become much more prevalent. Expected weak flow aloft,
however, should preclude much of a strong/organized storm threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

Prevailing VFR conditions and moderate winds are expected through
the rest of the day under some mid and high cloudiness. An
approaching disturbance from the west may aid in the development
of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and early this
evening, mainly north and east of a Carbondale to Madisonville
line, added thunder mention to EVV/OWB given this. Potential is
marginal but sufficient for TAF mention, will monitor through the
afternoon and amend if necessary. Light and variable winds
overnight will pick up into somewhat gusty southwest winds in the
late morning Friday gusting at 17 to 21 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

MESOSCALE...Smith
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JGG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
600 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-112000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
600 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue across
southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana through the evening.
Several strong to severe storms, with damaging winds, hail, and
torrential rainfall will be likely especially near the I-64 corridor
this evening.

Isolated storms may be possible further south during the evening,
but should remain below severe limits.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Southwest winds will gust from 20 to 30 mph at times Friday
afternoon, creating choppy conditions on area lakes.

Afternoon heat indices will climb into the middle 90s over much of
the region Sunday and Monday. This will be the first real bout of
summer heat and humidity this year.

Small chances of thunderstorms are forecast Monday through
Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon hours. Locally heavy
rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
05/10/2018  M0.75 INCH       VANDERBURGH        IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE QUARTER INCH RAINFALL WITHIN 30 MINUTES. REPORTED
            ON SOUTHEAST SIDE TO TOWN.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
559 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     HAIL             HENDERSON               37.84N 87.58W
05/10/2018  M0.75 INCH       HENDERSON          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE QUARTER INCH SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON EAST SIDE OF
            TOWN.

&&

SMITTY