Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
110 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun May 6 2018

Generally clear skies this morning will give way to increasing
clouds from the northwest this afternoon as a cold front dips
southeast from the Midwest states. The front will not have much
dynamic support aloft, and return flow of low level moisture
ahead of the advancing front will be little to nil s sfc winds
remain more westerly today. There may be enough instability around
Sunday afternoon/evening ahead of the front to support isolated
thunderstorm development, but expect any development to be limited
in coverage this afternoon and early tonight.

Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front later
tonight and Monday as high pressure dips southeast into the Great
Lakes region. Despite an expected return to sunshine, northerly
breezes should hold afternoon high temps Monday a bit below
seasonal norms. Still, should be a quite pleasant day with highs
from near 70 to the mid 70s and very comfortable humidity levels.
After a chilly start to the day Tuesday, temperatures will
moderate up well into the 70s Tuesday afternoon as the high
pressure system begins to slowly pull off to the east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun May 6 2018

High confidence early on in the extended with decreasing confidence
later in the extended where pops are concerned.

On Wednesday we will have have a an open wave upper level trough
move through the region with a warm front as a surface reflection.
This will result in warm air advection showers starting in the
west during the day and spread eastward in the evening. We will
have a cap during the day but we have elevated instability as well
with K index values exceeding 30. Then we erode the cap in the
late day/evening time with CAPE's around 2k j/kg2 and LI's
exceeding -5. So will definitely include mentions of thunder. We
do have speed shear through the column but very little directional
shear at this time. Wet bulb and freezing level is just above 10k
feet so would not rule out at least small hail with any strong
storms. This system will exit the area Thursday. However a
trailing cold front is expected to stall along the northwest
periphery of the forecast area...keeping small chances of rain in
the area as we remain in the warm sector. Even though the chances
will be low thunder will remain possible mainly because we remain
in the warm sector. As for temperatures expect above normal highs
and lows through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat May 5 2018

Though there will be some cloudiness around due to an approaching
cold front, VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. The
only possible exception may be brief vsby restrictions due to shower
or tstm activity in the late afternoon and early evening, mainly
over southernmost parts of southeastern MO and the Evansville Tri-
State region. At this time, "VCSH" wording was used in the KEVV/KOWB
TAFs to acknowledge this, due to the low probability of tstm
activity at a terminal. Westerly winds are expected to turn to the
north overnight with the frontal passage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
235 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-071000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
235 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible through this evening,
including a marginal risk for strong to severe storms, mainly for
southern parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Kentucky. One inch hail
is the primary severe weather hazard. Locally heavy rainfall,
lightning, and gusty winds are also associated storm hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Thunderstorm chances return almost daily for the middle to latter
portion of next week. Wednesday offers the best chance for a few
strong to severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay storm reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
233 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             5 N BROOKPORT           37.20N 88.63W
05/06/2018  E0.88 INCH       MASSAC             IL   PUBLIC

            HAIL REPORT AT INTERSECTION OF POWERS CHURCH RD AND
            LOVERKAMP RD

&&

SP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
233 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2018

KYZ011>013-062015-
Lyon KY-Caldwell KY-Trigg KY-
233 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...TRIGG AND
SOUTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 232 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms from near Princeton to 7 miles southeast of Eddyville.
Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Princeton, Cadiz, Princeton In Caldwell County, Land Between The
Lakes Area, Energy, Cobb, Canton, Rockcastle and Linton.

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3667 8786 3668 8807 3675 8811
      3687 8816 3689 8808 3695 8811 3718 8792
      3701 8772 3700 8773 3696 8766 3688 8767
      3674 8767 3664 8770 3663 8785
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 313DEG 19KT 3708 8792 3697 8801

RJP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
242 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             2 N HOPKINSVILLE        36.88N 87.49W
05/06/2018  E0.88 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL NEAR INTERESECTION OF HWY 41
            AND BYPASS

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
251 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             1 W PADUCAH             37.07N 88.65W
05/06/2018  M0.88 INCH       MCCRACKEN          KY   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY NWS
            EMPLOYEE

&&

SP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
254 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2018

ILZ090-094-KYZ002>011-013-MOZ112-062100-
Massac IL-Pope IL-Carlisle KY-Calloway KY-McCracken KY-Caldwell KY-
Marshall KY-Ballard KY-Graves KY-Crittenden KY-Hickman KY-Lyon KY-
Livingston KY-Mississippi MO-
254 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN POPE...CENTRAL
MASSAC...WESTERN CALDWELL...MARSHALL...MCCRACKEN...BALLARD...LYON...
NORTHERN CALLOWAY...SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON...SOUTH CENTRAL CRITTENDEN...
NORTHERN HICKMAN...CARLISLE...GRAVES AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Paducah, moving east at 20 mph. Other storms were near Wickliffe,
south of Benton, and around Kevil.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Paducah, Murray, Mayfield, Metropolis, Benton, Calvert City,
Eddyville, Clinton, La Center, Bardwell, Wickliffe, Reidland, Lone
Oak, Benton In Marshall County, Brookport, Barlow, Ledbetter,
Sedalia, Lovelaceville and West Paducah.

LAT...LON 3668 8922 3718 8907 3723 8900 3723 8893
      3725 8893 3716 8794 3695 8811 3689 8808
      3687 8816 3660 8805
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 252DEG 25KT 3707 8858

07