Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
720 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Expect an unsettled pattern the next 24 to 48 hours. Weak trof of
low pressure aloft will combine with very unstable conditions, esp
during the heat of the daytime hours, to produce rounds of
showers/thunderstorms. Opted to blanket the entire area with at
least scattered pops today and Monday ahead of a weak cold front
that is expected to make its way across the region Monday night.
PWATS today running up over 2.25 inches, so there will likely be
torrential downpours with any storms that do form. Between rounds
of convection, expect the uncomfortable heat and humidity to
continue. Afternoon heat indices through the period should not be
quite as oppressive as yesterday due mainly to increased cloud
cover, but still will top out in the 100-105 range at many
locations. Will handle with special weather statement this AM.
Some minor relief from the humidity may work in behind the cold
front on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Medium confidence continues in the overall pattern shown by the
models with lower confidence in the exact timing of features.

High pressure will remain in control of the region on Wednesday
before breaking down in advance of the next storm system. The
overall trend in the models is to develop an upper level ridge in
the west and trough in the east. This leaves our region in
northwesterly flow aloft which would tend to be a cooler and wetter
pattern. Models are very different in the placement of precipitation
as we head into the latter part of the week and the weekend. Chances
for precipitation will stay in the slight chance to chance
categories.

High temperatures in the middle to upper 80s Wednesday will give way
to highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s by the weekend. Dewpoints in
the 60s will make conditions less oppressive midweek but will be
inching back up to around 70 by the weekend. Heat indices will once
again be approaching 100 degrees, especially across southeast
Missouri on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 719 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Expect isolated to scattered storms increasing as solar heating
destabilizes the atmosphere today. There will be considerable
high clouds, but low clouds should be primarily in and near
storms. Will handle with VCTS for the time being.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...ML
AVIATION...GM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
535 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-161000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
535 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the region today and
tonight. Torrential rainfall and deadly lightning will be the main
thunderstorm hazards.

In addition....heat index values will top out between 95 and 105
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered thunderstorms are expected again on Monday. The chance
of thunderstorms returns Thursday west of the Mississippi River,
and then area-wide on Friday. While a few stronger storms with
damaging winds cannot be ruled out, the main concerns include
lightning and locally heavy rain.

Heat indices are forecast to top the century mark Monday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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