Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
709 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Updated Aviation Discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 509 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Much delayed this discussion this afternoon due to convective
watches, warnings, and potential for other headlines during the
next few days.

In coordination with SPC, extended Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 224 east-southeast to southern Illinois as atmosphere has
recovered sufficiently for severe potential into that area.

High Resolution, Convection Allowing Models (CAM), such as the
ESRL HRRR and RAP guidance are having some spatial issues dealing
with the detection of cold pool expansion and upshear thunderstorm
development along and behind the series of MCS (Mesoscale
Convective Systems) moving through the WFO PAH forecast area. The
trend is to develop convection (showers and thunderstorms) and
resultant higher QPF (rainfall amounts) much further south than
has been actually occurring. This seems to be the bias the last
couple of days. Adjusted forecast PoP grids northward to reflect
the better rainfall potential for the remainder of this afternoon
and this evening.

Once the small MCS (currently over southern IL and southeast
Missouri) moves east, the expectation is for a third MCS to move
through overnight and into Wednesday morning. There continues to
be some uncertainty on coverage of severe weather further to the
south and east this evening and overnight, so will have to monitor
and adapt, as needed.

With the frontal boundary moving south on Wednesday, kept a
prolonged period of chance PoPs matching closely to the stalling
boundary through the area and reflecting the instability along
and south of the front (as highlighted by the SPC Day 2 Severe
Weather Outlook).

Most of the convection should be capped to the west going into
Thursday from the west, but there may be enough insolation and
weak shear for a slight chance/chance of thunderstorms during the
afternoon on Thursday.

Have been strongly considering an excessive heat watch or heat
advisory from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon (and
possibly into Sunday). The likelihood for issuing a heat advisory
or better headline continues to be greater than 70 percent.
However, due to the potential for convective activity near the
start time of an advisory on Thursday, combined with procedural
implications of issuing an advisory at or beyond 48 hours, will
just continue a mention of elevated heat index values in a
hazardous weather outlook and a strongly worded special weather
special statement. Regardless, it will be quite warm for the
latter part of this week.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 509 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Hot and humid conditions will be the primary weather story in the
long term. The main forecast challenge is convective coverage and
resulting impacts on heat indices.

The models have slowed the arrival of the 500 mb high by a day.
Therefore, Friday now appears to be the hottest day as the 594 dm
high center passes over the lower Ohio Valley. A few isolated storms
are possible. Afternoon heat indices will peak above 105 degrees,
which is well advertised in the HWO and social media messaging.

The 500 mb high will move northeastward over the weekend, which
means our region will be under the southwest periphery of the
anticyclonic circulation. The main challenge is how much convection
will occur around the high center. Highs will be in the lower to mid
90s with heat indices topping 100 each day. Isolated convection
could provide some local relief both Sat and Sun afternoon.

Early next week, a broad weak 500 mb ridge will extend from the
Plains to the Northeast. Most of the model guidance shows a weakness
in the ridge over our region, permitting some convective development
Monday and Tuesday. Although it will remain hot and humid, the
convection could limit heat indices to mainly sub-advisory
thresholds.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 709 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Multiple lines of thunderstorms with trailing stratiform rain
moving through the area this evening. The complex of thunderstorms
moving in from southeast Missouri should rapidly spread eastward
and be ending from west to east by 03-05z timeframe. Some gusty
winds expected, perhaps severe up to around 50kts in some places,
as the main line moves through this evening. Should be a gradual
lull in activity by late evening/midnight. Some short term models
tending to redevelop some convection later in the overnight period
lasting into the morning hours. Went with vicinity mention for
now as unsure of the placement and overall coverage. Breezy WSW
winds expected tmrw with some gusts up around 20 kts. Overall VFR
cigs and vsbys should dominate the period, but may be some
temporary reductions with the stronger storms down to mainly MVFR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...SP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
554 pm CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-271000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
554 pM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Two lines of thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging winds,
small to large hail, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall,
capable of producing locallized flooding, will continue move across
the outlook area this evening. An isolated tornado may also not be
out of the question through the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The potential for thunderstorms, including a few possibly strong to
severe storms, will continue on Wednesday.

Oppressive heat is forecast from Thursday through Monday as peak
heat index values are forecast to range from 100 to 110 during
this time period.

Small chances of thunderstorms are forecast Thursday through
Sunday, mainly during the afternoon hours. A better chance of
thunderstorms is forecast by Sunday night and Monday. Through
this period, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with
damaging winds will be possible each afternoon, but the primary
concerns will be locally heavy rainfall and lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should maintain a basic weather watch in case activation
is requested.

RJP/DRS/Smith

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
749 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BREMEN                  37.36N 87.22W
06/26/2018                   MUHLENBERG         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN, ONE FELL ACROSS A
            MOBILE HOME. TREES DOWN ON MULTIPLE HOMES.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
750 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CENTRAL CITY            37.30N 87.13W
06/26/2018                   MUHLENBERG         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD TREES DOWNS THROUGHOUT THE COMMUNITY.

&&

SMITTY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
750 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

ILZ082-083-086-087-090-091-INZ085-KYZ007-010-014-270130-
White IL-Saline IL-Gallatin IL-Hamilton IL-Pope IL-Hardin IL-
Posey IN-Crittenden KY-Union KY-Livingston KY-
750 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WHITE...HARDIN...POPE...
SALINE...SOUTHERN HAMILTON...GALLATIN...SOUTHWESTERN POSEY...NORTH
CENTRAL LIVINGSTON...NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN AND SOUTHWESTERN UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 750 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Thompsonville to near New
Columbia. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Harrisburg, Eldorado, Marion, Shawneetown, Norris City, Rosiclare,
Galatia, Ridgway, Golconda, Equality, Dixon Springs, Carrier Mills,
Joy, New Haven, Raleigh, Cave-in-Rock, Elizabethtown, Stonefort,
Omaha and Broughton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Paducah.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and southern Illinois. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also
remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for western and northwestern
Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3734 8803 3735 8871 3801 8871 3803 8800
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 269DEG 37KT 3799 8868 3734 8882

SMITH

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