Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
510 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 509 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Much delayed this discussion this afternoon due to convective
watches, warnings, and potential for other headlines during the
next few days.

In coordination with SPC, extended Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 224 east-southeast to southern Illinois as atmosphere has
recovered sufficiently for severe potential into that area.

High Resolution, Convection Allowing Models (CAM), such as the
ESRL HRRR and RAP guidance are having some spatial issues dealing
with the detection of cold pool expansion and upshear thunderstorm
development along and behind the series of MCS (Mesoscale
Convective Systems) moving through the WFO PAH forecast area. The
trend is to develop convection (showers and thunderstorms) and
resultant higher QPF (rainfall amounts) much further south than
has been actually occurring. This seems to be the bias the last
couple of days. Adjusted forecast PoP grids northward to reflect
the better rainfall potential for the remainder of this afternoon
and this evening.

Once the small MCS (currently over southern IL and southeast
Missouri) moves east, the expectation is for a third MCS to move
through overnight and into Wednesday morning. There continues to
be some uncertainty on coverage of severe weather further to the
south and east this evening and overnight, so will have to monitor
and adapt, as needed.

With the frontal boundary moving south on Wednesday, kept a
prolonged period of chance PoPs matching closely to the stalling
boundary through the area and reflecting the instability along
and south of the front (as highlighted by the SPC Day 2 Severe
Weather Outlook).

Most of the convection should be capped to the west going into
Thursday from the west, but there may be enough insolation and
weak shear for a slight chance/chance of thunderstorms during the
afternoon on Thursday.

Have been strongly considering an excessive heat watch or heat
advisory from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon (and
possibly into Sunday). The likelihood for issuing a heat advisory
or better headline continues to be greater than 70 percent.
However, due to the potential for convective activity near the
start time of an advisory on Thursday, combined with procedural
implications of issuing an advisory at or beyond 48 hours, will
just continue a mention of elevated heat index values in a
hazardous weather outlook and a strongly worded special weather
special statement. Regardless, it will be quite warm for the
latter part of this week.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 509 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Hot and humid conditions will be the primary weather story in the
long term. The main forecast challenge is convective coverage and
resulting impacts on heat indices.

The models have slowed the arrival of the 500 mb high by a day.
Therefore, Friday now appears to be the hottest day as the 594 dm
high center passes over the lower Ohio Valley. A few isolated storms
are possible. Afternoon heat indices will peak above 105 degrees,
which is well advertised in the HWO and social media messaging.

The 500 mb high will move northeastward over the weekend, which
means our region will be under the southwest periphery of the
anticyclonic circulation. The main challenge is how much convection
will occur around the high center. Highs will be in the lower to mid
90s with heat indices topping 100 each day. Isolated convection
could provide some local relief both Sat and Sun afternoon.

Early next week, a broad weak 500 mb ridge will extend from the
Plains to the Northeast. Most of the model guidance shows a weakness
in the ridge over our region, permitting some convective development
Monday and Tuesday. Although it will remain hot and humid, the
convection could limit heat indices to mainly sub-advisory
thresholds.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 509 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Delayed 18z WFO PAH TAF discussion. Attempted to keep WFO PAH TAF
sites in VFR category between thunderstorm complexes. Given the
uncertainty with the approach of MVFR/IFR category ceilings and
visibilities, kept with vicinity mention of thunderstorms and VFR
ceilings. Added a mention of Low Level Wind Shear overnight at
KPAH due to strong shear off the surface. Anticipate some
amendments overnight as the next in a series of MCS's move through
the area.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...Smith

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1143 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-271000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
1143 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

At least a couple rounds of scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected through tonight. There is a slight risk for severe weather
across most of the outlook area south of Interstate 64 in Illinois,
with damaging winds and marginally severe hail the main concerns, in
addition to lightning and torrential rain, which may cause localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The potential for thunderstorms, including a few possibly strong
to severe storms, continues into Wednesday.

Oppressive heat is forecast from Thursday through Monday as peak
heat index values are forecast to range from 100 to 110 each
afternoon.

Small chances of thunderstorms are forecast Thursday through
Sunday, mainly during the afternoon hours. A better chance of
thunderstorms is forecast by Sunday night and Monday. Through
this period, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with
damaging winds will be possible each afternoon, but the primary
concerns will be locally heavy rainfall and lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should maintain a basic weather watch in case activation
is requested.

RJP/DRS/smith

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
408 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PERRYVILLE              37.73N 89.87W
06/26/2018                   PERRY              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
420 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 E FRUITLAND           37.45N 89.58W
06/26/2018                   CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
437 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

ILZ081-082-084>086-088>090-092>094-MOZ076-086-087-100-110-111-
262245-
FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-
WAYNE MO-STODDARD-SCOTT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WEST FRANKFORT, MCLEANSBORO, CARBONDALE,
MURPHYSBORO, HERRIN, HARRISBURG, JONESBORO, VIENNA, GOLCONDA,
CAIRO, MOUND CITY, METROPOLIS, PERRYVILLE, MARBLE HILL,
CAPE GIRARDEAU, JACKSON, PIEDMONT, BLOOMFIELD, AND SIKESTON
437 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

...Special Weather Statement...

At 435 PM, strong thunderstorms extended from west of Marble Hill
Missouri to Carbondale Illinois, moving east at 30 to 35 mph. The
stronger storms through 530 PM across Bollinger, Cape Girardeau,
Jackson, Union, Johnson and Williamson counties may produce small
hail and gusty winds 35 to 50 mph. The storms may also produce
minor flooding.

CN

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