Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
305 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Forecast challenge early in the short term lies with
thunderstorm/heavy rainfall potential this afternoon and tonight.

MCV moving east through far southern IL has collided with very
unstable environment of 3000+ SBCAPES over southeast MO/srn IL,
resulting in a fairly explosive burst of thunderstorms along the
outflow boundary. Not much flow aloft to create shear to organize
the storms, but the forcing from the MCV may be overcoming this,
at least this afternoon. Though not expecting widespread severe
storms, will need to monitor for near severe wind gusts esp as the
line progresses east across the forecast area late this
afternoon/early evening.

In addition, the northern portion of this line of storms
containing torrential rainfall rates will likely transverse areas
along/north of I-64 in southeast IL/sw IN...where soils are quite
saturated from repeated convective complexes the past few days.
One hour flash flood guidance values are running from .5 to 1 inch
along that swath. Thus, have needed to expand the previous flash
flood watch in time (and a bit farther south in space) through the
afternoon and tonight. HRW NSSL CAM seems to have a good handle
on ongoing convection, and it really reduces storm coverage after
about 6-8 PM this evening. However, some other models point to a
chance lingering into the night, so opted to carry the watch
until 5 AM Wed. May need to be cancelled earlier though.

A large upper-level ridge extending from the southern Rockies
into the southern Plains will begin to bulge eastward into the
lower/mid MS River Valley as we head into the mid to late week
time frame. This should serve to limit the overall coverage of
daytime convection over much of the western 2/3 of the forecast
area, and keep things unseasonably warm. Some models suggest a
back-door type push of somewhat less humid air into esp sw IN/nw
KY as we head into Thu, but the jury is still out on that one. Gut
feeling is that most of us will be stuck with fairly humid
conditions through late week. Summer seems here to stay.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

By 12Z Friday, an upper level ridge of high pressure will be
established over the region. At the surface, we will be on the
western side of a departing high pressure system. Given the high
pressure overhead and limited moisture, any chances for convection
on Friday should be little to none. Temperatures will continue to be
in the upper 80s to low 90s.

As the surface high continues to shift east Friday night into the
day on Saturday, winds will become more southerly. This will lead to
an increase in high temperatures on Saturday with readings well into
the lower 90s. This heat coupled with dew points in the lower 70s
will mean heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees. Dry and hot
conditions appear to continue into Sunday as well, as the upper high
remains in the vicinity with no other substantial focusing
mechanisms and continued limited moisture. Again, any convection
should be isolated, although the latest GFS ensembles do indicate
possibilities over western portions on Sunday. Will maintain a dry
forecast for the weekend for now.

By early next week, the center of the upper high will have shifted
to our east. Models are hinting at possible disturbances coming
around the western side of this upper high. However, timing and
placement of these features. Confidence for showers and storms
increases even more on Tuesday as the upper high migrates back down
into the Gulf Coast states region. Do not have high enough
confidence to go with likely POPs (greater than 55 percent POPs),
but will maintain good chance percentages for now given the increase
in QPF with the latest GFS ensembles. With the chances for rain and
scattered clouds, will lower highs a few degrees with readings in
the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

A very moist and unstable air mass will set the stage for scattered
to numerous thunderstorms today. As diurnal heating kicks in,
storms should develop at or near the remainder of the taf sites this
afternoon/evening. Heavy rain may accompany some storms. Although
ifr conditions are possible, the probability of sustained ifr is
too low to mention in the tafs at this time. Outside of storms,
vfr conditions will continue.

Although tsra is not mentioned in the tafs after midnight tonight,
there is a small chance isolated convection will linger well into
the night.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ076>078-083.

MO...None.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...GM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
314 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-132015-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
314 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
into tonight. Locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding
will be the primary concerns, especially where the ground is
nearly saturated in southwest Indiana and southeast Illinois. In
addition, a few strong storms damaging winds and small hail are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance of scattered thunderstorms again Wednesday.
Locally heavy rain and dangerous lightning are the primary
concerns. A few storms could become strong, with hail and gusty
winds.

There is only a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm here and
there during the peak heating of the daytime Thursday through
Monday. However, most locations will remain rain-free. Deadly
lightning would be the main concern.

The heat index will peak around 100 degrees each afternoon from
Friday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation should not be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
337 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND GST     BROWNS                  38.38N 87.98W
06/12/2018  E60 MPH          EDWARDS            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LATE REPORT. WINDS ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
344 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ALBION                  38.38N 88.06W
06/12/2018                   EDWARDS            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ON MANY LOCAL
            HIGHWAYS.

&&

SMITTY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
346 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

ILZ090-092>094-KYZ003>005-007-MOZ110>112-114-122200-
Pope-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-
Livingston-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
Including the cities of Golconda, Cairo, Mound City, Metropolis,
Bardwell, Wickliffe, Paducah, Smithland, Bloomfield, Sikeston,
Charleston, and New Madrid
346 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

A line of strong thunderstorms extended from just west of Golconda
Illinois, to La Center Kentucky, to south of Dudly in southeast
Missouri.

These storms have produced wind gusts to near 45 mph in Massac
county Illinois and close to 40 mph in Cairo Illinois.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms.

Be prepared for blinding rain and gusty winds as these storms move
through the area.

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
348 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW METROPOLIS         37.17N 88.74W
06/12/2018  E50 MPH          MASSAC             IL   PUBLIC

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
349 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROUND KNOB              37.22N 88.73W
06/12/2018  M44 MPH          MASSAC             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITTY