River Flood Warning 4, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
549 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 109 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Early this afternoon, strong high pressure extended from the Upper
Midwest to the TX Gulf Coast. Across our region, occasional high
clouds prevailed, along with chilly northeast winds about the
high. The high tonight through Tuesday will head east, allowing
for southerly backside flow to develop, the start of what will be
a noticeable warming trend. H5 heights will rise about 100dm as
well. Dry tonight and Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night, energetic WSW flow aloft
will interact with warm conditions and greater low level moisture.
The result will be a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Best chance of thunder will
be late Tuesday night through midday Wednesday. Otherwise
increasing clouds. Used a model consensus for the short term
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 109 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Average confidence in the extended with lower confidence in the
timing of the systems.

Starting Thursday we will have high pressure to our east with a low
and attendant cold front over the plains. This will place our region
in a strong and gusty southwest flow. The end result will be well
above normal temperatures with highs in the 60s approaching 70.
Thursday night a cold front will come through with much colder air
in its wake. Surface instability is lacking but there are some
elevated parameters that suggest some thunder may be possible with
elevated LI's negative 2 to 3 and K index reading around 30. In
contrast showalters stay positive. So will leave thunder out for now
but monitor for possible introduction with later runs and or
collaboration calls for it. The GFS is much faster at moving this
system out than the ensembles...ECMWF or Canadian. The blend of
course will weight closer to the majority so will hold onto pops
longer than the GFS. WPC has us getting anywhere from a half inch
over the Ozarks to over an inch toward the Evansville Indiana region
for that time frame. High pressure will move through the area
Saturday and off to the east coast late in the weekend. This again
will place us in a southwest flow with moderating temperatures ahead
of the next cold front Sunday night into the first part of next
week. As of the latest sounding elevated thunder may be possible
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 549 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

As the center of high surface pressure in the Upper Midwest
continues to move eastward, northeasterly winds across the PAH
forecast area are forecast to veer to southerly Tue afternoon. VFR
conditions are expected, with increasing cloudiness late.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

AVIATION...DB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
112 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-131100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
112 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.