Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Paducah, KY

Alexander County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Gibson County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, McLean County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Todd County, KY, Trigg County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO

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WWUS83 KPAH 130042
RFWPAH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Paducah KY
742 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

ILZ083-085>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ110>112-114-
130145-
/O.EXP.KPAH.FW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180413T0100Z/
White-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-Hardin-
Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick-
Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
742 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR west
Kentucky, southwest Indiana, southeast Missouri, and southern
Illinois...

Relative humidity values will continue to rise overnight, along
with slightly lower wind speeds. It will remain fairly breezy 
overnight, as south winds 10 to 20 mph continue, with occasional 
gusts 30 mph or slightly higher.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
629 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

For aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Warm up continues in earnest today as very breezy southerly flow
combines with ample sunshine to push readings well into the 70s to
perhaps near 80 in some locations. Many areas will experience wind
gusts up in the 30 to 40 mph range today, just below advisory
criteria. Will handle wind gusts and fire weather concerns with a
Special Weather Statement this AM.

After a rather mild start in the upper 50s to lower 60s Friday
morning, Friday afternoon will also be unseasonably warm as a deep
amplitude mid level trof and associated cold front move east into
the plains. Increasing mid/high clouds along/west of the MS River
may hold temperatures back a little, but all locations should still
reach into the lower and mid 70s. A few locations on the KY
Pennyrile region may even flirt with 80 degrees once again Friday
afternoon.

There remains a bit if uncertainty as to the timing of this next
system, with the operational GFS maintaining its more progressive
solution and dry slotting much of the region Saturday (after a
wet Friday night ahead of the surface front). This solution is an
outlier though compared to most other models and even its own GFS
Ensemble Mean. The idea of a primary surge in precip Friday night,
then a secondary surge up from the south later Saturday into
Saturday night is seeing more and more support. The second surge
would mainly affect areas from wrn KY up into sw IN.

It looks as though the higher severe thunderstorm risk will
remain off to our west/southwest Friday evening, and then just
off to our south and east on Saturday, where the higher
instabilities will pool. However, still believe there may be a
couple of small windows of at least isolated severe storm
potential. The first would be Friday evening over se MO, and the
second Saturday along/east of the MS River.

The second opportunity could be determined by what, if any, type
of instability can be regenerated after the first round of precip
exits in the morning hours. If we mange to generate some surface
heating later Saturday morning/early afternoon, shear levels ahead
of an eastward advancing occluded front would still be sufficient
to support organized storms.

Impacts with a heavy rainfall will likely be limited to areas of
wrn KY/sw IN, in conjunction with the second surge of precip
from wrn TN Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. 1-3 inch rain
totals seem quite possible at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Fairly high confidence in the extended as deterministic and
ensembles are in reasonable agreement.

Starting Sunday is the one day which the latest ECMWF is in
disagreement with the GFS. Both models keep the keep the upper low
closed off and up near lake Michigan as it passes north of the
region. The difference is the ECMWF has shifted the precip farther
to the north from previous runs and current GFS runs bring precip
into the region except for SEMO. High pressure will take over for
a very chilly early start to the week. High temps Sunday and
Monday could be as much as 15-20 degrees below normal once again,
depending on how much wrap around cloud cover hangs on. Tue/Wed
will bring dry conditions to the area with a significant warming
trend.

Another frontal system approaches the area mid week that could
result in a chance of rain or storms. The blend for now keeps us
dry but that will likely change as we warm sector Tuesday into
Wednesday. MOS has a spread near 10 degrees. Both the ECMWF and
GFS MOS show a warming trend with the GFS about 10 degrees warmer
which is about 10 degrees warmer than the GFS. The blend uses an
average of the two for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Main aviation concerns will lie with gusty ssw winds through much
of the period. Gusts of over 30 kts will be likely at times
today...then may relax some this evening with setting of the sun.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Fire danger will be elevated today and Friday.

Gusty winds and very dry fuels will create hazardous burning
conditions today. Relative humidity will be low but should be well
above the critical thresholds. However past events indicate the
windy conditions that are expected have a much greater effect on
spread rates than humidity or dryness of fuels. Burning is strongly

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...GM
FIRE WEATHER...KH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
352 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-131000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
352 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

South to southwest winds will gust from 30 to 40 mph today, which
could create some minor travel impacts for high-profile vehicles
traveling on east-west oriented roadways.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A chance of thunderstorms is forecast...mainly Friday evening over
southeast Missouri and then again Saturday, generally east of the
Mississippi River. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled
out at those times.

There still lies some concern regarding the risk of locally heavy
rainfall Friday night into Saturday night. Some locations across
southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana and western Kentucky could
see from 1 to 3 inches of rainfall by Sunday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.