Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1152 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

Will maintain the existing Flash Flood Watch as is. Slight uptick
in rainfall amounts after coord with WPC. FFG values high to
start, so flooding onset concerns will be delayed just a bit.
Focus late today into tonight will be across SEMO, as the remnants
of Gordon move NNE. Unseasonably high PWAT values 2+ SD's and
increasing 850mb flow and transport should enhance rainfall rates
overnight in this area. The focus will then head NE into southern
IL southwest IN, and adjacent Ohio River counties west KY Saturday
as the low tracks NE. There is still some uncertainty with respect
to QPF. The possibility exists it's a bit high for some areas.
The system will be on the move once it moves across southeast MO.
However, rate and efficiency will be quite high, thus the uptick
in QPF per WPC.

Saturday afternoon, south of the low, and along a frontal
boundary, we should see more convective development, that will
move east across the FA Saturday afternoon and early night. During
this time frame we see some increase in speed and directional
shear sfc-500mb, along with destabilization. It would not be out
of the question to see a couple of robust short lived storms that
may spin up a brief funnel or "weak" tornado, along with gusty
winds. Confidence remains low on this potential, but we did notice
it.

Eventually we will see a sharpening of a 500mb trof from the Great
Lakes to over the Ozarks region by midday Sunday. As the system
wraps up it should push best chances of precip on east and
eventually out of the area by Sunday night. Temps were a blend of
MAV, MET and existing forecast numbers.

CN

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

By this time, Gordon has weakened into an open upper trough and is
leaving the area. As it does, heights rise and we dry out. Overall
the upper level pattern is a trough off the west coast and a ridge
along the east coast.

By Thursday, there are a couple of issues. One is a weak trough
forming under the ridge in the Gulf near Louisiana. The other is
Florence off the east coast. Overall deeper moisture increases over
the southeast U.S. partially due to both systems. Even though there
are questions about where Florance is going, the influx of moisture
looks pretty definite. This moisture may result in mainly afternoon
showers and thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday.

In the low levels, expect northeast flow with temperatures and
humidity levels at or below normal for the first half of the week.
Humidity levels increase towards the end of the week.

PS

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to become more
numerous through the early morning hours as the remnants of Gordon
move slowly northeast across Missouri. The most widespread activity
appears likely to be from kcgi to kevv and points northwest. IFR
conditions are likely in the heaviest showers and storms. However,
there will be intervals of vfr conditions between precipitation
bands.

On Saturday, conditions will improve to mainly vfr by midday.
However, more storms are likely to develop in the afternoon as a
trailing cold front moves across our region. The storms will
diminish in the evening with loss of daytime heating. Winds will
average east to southeast tonight, then become south on Saturday
around 10 kt.

In the wake of the cold front, mvfr cigs will arrive on Saturday
evening. IFR cigs may eventually occur by 06z Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ILZ075>078-080>086-
     088-089-092-093.

     Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
     morning for ILZ087-090-091-094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
     morning for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday
     morning for KYZ004-005-007-010-014-015-018.

&&

Aviation...MY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
230 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-081000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
230 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch will be in effect through tonight for most of
the area, north of a New Madrid, Missouri, Paducah, Kentucky,
Rockport Indiana line. Refer to the watch for details on the heavy
rain potential. Some thunderstorms will be possible. The heavy rain
focus tonight should be across southeast Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The Flash Flood Watch will continue through early Sunday morning.
Refer to the Watch for more information. The focus of heaviest rain
will shift to southern Illinois, southwest Indiana and portions of
west Kentucky Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Some guidance suggests a
very low chance of a strong storm capable gusty winds in the
afternoon and early evening. Wind shear forecasts suggest a brief
funnel or weak tornado cannot be ruled out. Again, confidence is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but reports of rainfall
and any associated flooding issues are appreciated.

Corrected