Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Paducah, KY

250 
WGUS73 KPAH 241926
FFSPAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
226 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2018

MOC157-241936-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-180824T2045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Perry MO-
226 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR PERRY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3785 8979 3785 8974 3780 8967 3775 8966
      3775 8962 3771 8958 3769 8952 3764 8952
      3759 8948 3756 8953 3758 8959 3760 8961
      3758 8968 3760 8973 3759 8980 3761 8980
      3760 9015 3764 9015 3787 8995 3791 8984

$$

GREG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1246 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

Early this morning, high pressure was across the Mid Atlantic with
low pressure across the Plains, and a developing southerly flow in
response across our area. H5 low was over the Dakotas moving east.
Radar showed showers and storms over northeast MO, into west IL,
and developing down into southwest MO. Very light showers,
sprinkles were over southeast MO. We expect the convection to
continue near H7 trof axis and follow the H8/H3 thickness values
southeast into our area today. All of the near term guidance/CAMs
shows convective activity holding together into southern IL,
southwest IN and parts of southeast MO, then diminishing
considerably by late this afternoon as it moves into west KY,
possibly not even reaching the KY Pennyrile. Gradient PoPs from NW
to SE will exist as a result. Expect a quiet, mainly dry evening,
then overnight, another round of convection will act similar to
what we should see today, moving southeast into the area then
diminishing as it heads east Saturday morning, best chances
southern IL, southwest IN.

Rising heights will be the the rule through the short term. We
expect dry weather Saturday night through Sunday night as the
upper ridge strengthens over the southern U.S. On Sunday, we will
see heat index values near 100F in some areas as highs return 90
and slightly higher along with higher humidity.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

The upper level high pressure ridge that will dominate the weather
across the area for the weekend, will finally drift eastward early
next week. We will still feel the effects of it though as we remain
very warm and mainly dry. However, the GFS and its ensemble mean
continue to indicate the possibility of a diurnal shower or storm,
mainly east of the Mississippi River on Monday afternoon. Given that
this minor chance was already introduced with yesterdays package,
will leave it in for now. Highs expected to be around 90 degrees.

By Tuesday, the better chances for afternoon convection are placed
further to our east. Temperatures will continue to be similar to
what will be experienced the past few days, which is upper 80s to
around 90 degrees.

However, as we head into the middle to latter part of the week, our
eyes turn to the northwest, as a frontal boundary develops and
slowly moves in our direction. Models are having a tough time with
the speed of this front, making it challenging to depict the best
time frame to raise POPs. Right now, the best location for rain
chances on Wednesday are going to across our far northern counties.
Will maintain at least a slight chance elsewhere given the
uncertainties. As we head into Thursday, it looks like the front is
going to be somewhere in our vicinity, close enough to warrant some
chance type POPs. Lots of refinement will be needed as we get closer
to the event as the upper level pattern is vastly different between
the latest available model guidance. Once models get a handle on the
upper pattern, we will have a better idea on the
progression/strength of this front. We should see high temperatures
drop a few degrees given the prospect of some clouds and rain.
Temperatures will be adjusted even more once we obtain a handle on
the best rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

Convection continues to move east through much of the region this
afternoon, but should dissipate by evening most locations. Will be
patchy MVFR vsbys in the heavier rain, otherwise VFR conditions
expected. Next chance of showers/storms will come with a short
wave entering the region late tonight, aft 09z. Could last into
Saturday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...GM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
334 AM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-251000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
334 AM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today, then again late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.