Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Paducah, KY

981 
WGUS73 KPAH 251357
FFSPAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
857 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

KYC007-145-251402-
/O.CAN.KPAH.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180625T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McCracken KY-Ballard KY-
857 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MCCRACKEN AND BALLARD
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Overnight rainfall accumulations at 
Bandana was 3.35 inches, 2ENE Paducah was 3.09 and the Olmsted Lock 
and Dam recorded 4.20. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3701 8917 3703 8918 3707 8918 3712 8911
      3717 8908 3722 8902 3723 8898 3722 8894
      3723 8893 3721 8887 3713 8870 3698 8913

$$

SMITTY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
301 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Primary concerns in the short term include the ongoing potential
for flash flooding this morning, followed by intermittent chances
for showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Confidence in the
near term forecast is relatively high given good model agreement
in the overall synoptic pattern, though the impact of lesser known
mesoscale impacts keeps a lid on confidence in temporal and
spatial details.

First things first...numerous showers and thunderstorms have raked
across mainly the southern half of the forecast area since Sunday,
particularly southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western
Kentucky. While the initial round of storms had largely exited
the region at the time of this discussion, additional activity was
expanding in coverage near the confluence of the Mississippi and
Ohio Rivers. Several factors are at play, including upper level
energy in the form of a slow moving MCV over the Lower Ohio Valley,
a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across far southern
portions of the region, and very strong low level confluence on
the north side of a 30-40 knot H85 speed max oriented parallel to
the boundary.

CAM models, including those within the HREF, indicate this set-
up will persist through early morning. With precipitable water
values near 2 inches, flash flooding will become more of a concern
through the early morning in locations that receive repeat heavy
rains. Given that we're already in Flash Flood Warning mode and
the event is expected to wrap up in another 6 to 8 hours, a watch
at this point seems like an afterthought. Will instead let the
warnings and statements handle the situation.

Looking out beyond this morning, a closed upper low currently over
Nebraska is forecast to slowly progress east into the Great Lakes
through Wednesday. Energy from this low will act upon the warm,
moist, and unstable air mass in place across the region to result
in intermittent chances for showers and thunderstorms. After the
rain comes to an end later this morning, model consensus suggests
that much of the midday and afternoon should turn out dry with
the region in between systems. However, prefer to leave a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the forecast given our proximity to the
boundary.

That boundary will begin to lift north as a warm front tonight as
as the upper low approaches. This will result in an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight, especially after
midnight and continuing into Tuesday morning. Yet another round of
storms is possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a final
wave of energy pivots south of the Great Lakes low. While a couple
of strong/severe storms cannot be ruled out during the period,
the main concern will remain localized flooding given the high
atmospheric moisture content. Conditions will begin to dry out
late Wednesday and Wednesday night as an upper level ridge
expands east from the Plains.

An overall warming trend is anticipated through mid week. Highs
are forecast to climb from the mid/upper 80s today into the lower
90s by Wednesday. Heat index readings on Wednesday are forecast to
peak near 100 across most of the area, and may even reach 105 in
portions of southeast Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

To start out the long term period, the center of an upper level high
will be situated just to our west and will steadily be building
eastward with time. The ECMWF and GFS ensemble means continue to
insist on the possibility of convection at least on the eastern
periphery of this upper high, which would impact the eastern half of
the CWA on Thursday. It does appear that the better moisture will be
just to our east. Also, seeing as though previous shifts have
lowered POPs to below mentionable, do not see enough evidence to put
any substantial POPs back in. However, will still indicate a sliver
of slights up against our neighbors to the east. Temperatures on
Thursday will also be quite toasty and range from the lower to
middle 90s with heat indices 105 to 110 degrees with the awfully
high dew points we will have in place.

By 12Z Friday, the upper level high should be directly overhead.
Really should not be much in the way of precipitation but isolated
convection is certainly possible and models have been hinting at
this for several days. Right now the better moisture will be
situated in the eastern half of the area. The hot and very humid
weather will continue on Friday as well. We will be dealing with
some very dangerous conditions from mid to late week. Precautions
will definitely need to be made by folks in our region as high
temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 90s once again on
Friday with heat indices at least in the 105 to 110 degree range.

The center of the upper level high will shift east during the day on
Saturday and once again, we could see an isolated or widely
scattered storm, but there are no signals of organized areas of
convection to deal with. Highs on Saturday may end up being a degree
or two cooler, but it probably won't feel like it. By Sunday, the
pattern gets pretty messy with multiple solutions from the available
suite of models. Will maintain slight chances to account for these
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

On and off convection will continue through early to mid morning.
Ceiling and visibility restrictions to MVFR and even IFR are
possible beneath the heaviest thunderstorms. Conditions should
transition to primarily VFR after 14Z. Isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out during the late morning and afternoon, but low
coverage precludes a mention in the forecast at this time. Better
chances of showers/storms should arrive overnight Monday night
into Tuesday morning. Variable winds around 5 knots or less will
prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...RJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
357 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-261000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
357 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms with repeat heavy rains over saturated
ground will result in a continued concern for flash flooding
early this morning across portions of southeast Missouri, southern
Illinois, and western Kentucky. Refer to Flash Flood Warnings and
statements for details.

A slight chance of thunderstorms returns to much of the region
this afternoon, followed by increasing thunderstorm chances
tonight, especially after midnight. While a few strong to severe
storms cannot be ruled out, the primary concerns include lightning
and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The potential for thunderstorms, including a few possibly strong
to severe storms, continues into Tuesday and Wednesday. Mainly dry
weather is forecast through the remainder of the week, though an
isolated heat of the day storm cannot be completely ruled out.

Outside of any thunderstorm activity for the remainder of the
week, heat index values will range between 100 to 105 degrees on
Wednesday, with widespread 105 to potentially 110 degree readings
expected Thursday through Saturday. An Excessive Heat Watch or
Heat Advisory may become necessary for the outlook area during
the latter half of this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should maintain a basic weather watch in case activation
is requested. In particular, reports of flooding this morning are
appreciated.

RJP/CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
255 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     FLOOD            2 N OLIVE BRANCH        37.20N 89.35W
06/25/2018                   ALEXANDER          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROUTE 3 NORTH OF OLIVE BRANCH.

&&

SP