Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Paducah, KY

401 
WGUS73 KPAH 242346
FFSPAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
546 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

MOC017-023-035-181-207-223-250230-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180225T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bollinger MO-Carter MO-Ripley MO-Wayne MO-Stoddard MO-Butler MO-
546 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR
BOLLINGER...CARTER...RIPLEY...WAYNE...STODDARD AND BUTLER COUNTIES...

At 539 PM CST, local law enforcement reported flash flooding in 
Poplar Bluff. At least a couple of water rescues have been conducted 
there. A thunderstorm produced nearly an inch of rain in 45 minutes 
at the Poplar Bluff airport. 

Thunderstorms with torrential rain will move east across Stoddard 
County through 7 pm. Rainfall rates around an inch per hour will 
accompany these storms. Elsewhere across the warned area, additional 
rainfall amounts will be less than an inch this evening.

Persons throughout the warned area should be aware that creeks will 
continue to rise even after the rain has ended. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 9122 3710 9096 3705 9096 3705 9078
      3727 9073 3727 9055 3732 9055 3731 9015
      3760 9015 3760 8986 3713 8987 3713 8977
      3708 8979 3693 8969 3663 8970 3663 9015
      3650 9022 3650 9112 3682 9112 3683 9122

$$

York

785 
WGUS73 KPAH 250216
FFSPAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
816 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

MOC017-023-035-181-207-223-250230-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180225T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bollinger MO-Carter MO-Ripley MO-Wayne MO-Stoddard MO-Butler MO-
816 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR
BOLLINGER...CARTER...RIPLEY...WAYNE...STODDARD AND BUTLER COUNTIES...

The Flash Flood Warning for parts of southeast Missouri will be 
allowed to expire at 830 PM. 

However, an areal Flood Warning will be in effect for the region. 
The Flood Warning will be for longer term flooding of creeks and low-
lying areas, which will persist for days.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 9122 3710 9096 3705 9096 3705 9078
      3727 9073 3727 9055 3732 9055 3731 9015
      3760 9015 3760 8986 3713 8987 3713 8977
      3708 8979 3693 8969 3663 8970 3663 9015
      3650 9022 3650 9112 3682 9112 3683 9122

$$

York

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
124 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 109 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Going forecast is coming into form/on track. If anything, some of
the short term modeling has it here/pushing thru a little quicker,
which is in part why SPC has shaved the western edge of our
Enhanced (svr) risk zone. But all things remain virtually
unchanged, with increasing wind shear/instability peaking around
00Z or shortly thereafter. See linear development already upstream
over western AR, and the warm sector convection is ongoing on
into our southern border counties. Anticipate increasing
convective threat thru nightfall, continuing into early evening
hours. Still high pw's will keep the flooding rains a hazard, with
another 1-2" possible thru the end of the event (higher amounts
locally in thunderstorms). So will re-up the FFA (and FLW's) and
continue thru tmrw morning, as we monitor for severe likelihood
thru the evening hours. It looks like a quick/sharp west to east
exit in the 06z-09z time frame with all pcpn over entirely by
12z. The remainder of the short term (Sunday thru Monday night)
will be recovery time, with High pressure giving dry weather and
generally seasonal temps for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 109 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Ran with the blend and targeted the mid week rain chance,
starting Tue night and ending Thursday evening. During that time
frame, the models are increasingly signalling a wet pattern, with
another 1 to 2 inches on average possible, mainly along/south of
the Ohio river. This won't give a whole lot of recovery time from
the previous wetting, upwards to 3 days. Did go ahead and include
some elevated thunder risk late Tue night, and then again Wed
evening, as GFS shows supportive showalters and even some mucape
in the lower 1 km on the back end (time). This could result in
some locally higher totals, and depending upon how our river stems
are responding, may result in another headline/watch scenario. Not
too sold on convective chances just yet, so that's a maybe, but am
sold on some wet weather for the overall time frame.

Temps hold generally mild for this time of year, with a late week
cooldown behind the mid week storm system/wake of its departure.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 109 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Warm front lifting north will keep restricted cigs/vsbys, along
with increasing rain chances, in the forecast. Behind it, linear
convective chances increase into the evening hours, with IFR
restrictions forecast in thunderstorms for its passage. Gusty
south winds will shift to northwest overnight/with fropa, then
diminish upon clearing out/with high pressure taking over tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
     114.

IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ001>022.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
330 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-251100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
330 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, into the
overnight hours, will pose a severe weather and flooding hazard.

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 9 pm for most of southeast
Missouri, western Kentucky, and far southern Illinois. Refer to
the Watch product for details.

A Flood Watch remains in effect through late tonight, and that
product can be referenced for additional details. In addition,
Flood and Flash Flood Warnings remain in effect as a line of
thunderstorms with heavy rain impact the area.

Numerous river flood warnings are also in effect. Refer to the
warning products and their follow up statements for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible during the
mid week time frame. Refer to the flood warnings and statements
for important river flood details, including the latest updated
information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested this afternoon and evening for
the Tornado Watch. All reports of storm activity are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EDDYVILLE               37.08N 88.08W
02/24/2018  M6.07 INCH       LYON               KY   PUBLIC

            4 DAY RAINFALL TOTAL RELAYED VIA TWITTER

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
226 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HAIL             6 E PRINCETON           37.11N 87.78W
02/24/2018  E0.88 INCH       CALDWELL           KY   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT HWY 672.

&&

ALR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
246 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

ILZ090-092>094-KYZ001>009-MOZ112-242200-
POPE-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-
MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-MISSISSIPPI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GOLCONDA, CAIRO, MOUND CITY, METROPOLIS,
HICKMAN, CLINTON, BARDWELL, WICKLIFFE, PADUCAH, MAYFIELD,
SMITHLAND, BENTON, MURRAY, AND CHARLESTON
246 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

...Isolated wind gusts near 40 mph possible through 330 pm CST...

Isolated wind gusts up to 40 mph may be possible over the Purchase
area of West Kentucky through 330 pm CST.

Clouds are beginning to thin near the Kentucky and Tennessee
state line. Stronger winds higher in the atmosphere may mix down
as skies clear, producing stronger wind gusts during the next
hour.

Given the wet ground, these stronger winds may down small or
diseased trees or tree limbs and toss around loose objects.

Smith