Special Weather Statement, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
306 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Latest surface observations show a quasi-stationary front Cheyenne
to near Guthrie to near Cushing. The environment near this
boundary has become moderately unstable with MLCAPE 1,500-2,000
J/kg, due to diabatic heating of a comparatively more moist
boundary layer than has been seen the last few days. Isolated to
scattered convection has formed near this boundary. Effective
shear is marginally supportive of sustained updrafts and perhaps a
marginally severe wind/hail threat with the strongest storms into
early evening, especially given DCAPE up to 1,200 J/kg suggesting
brief strong/severe microbursts are possible with the most intense
storms.

Later tonight, modest strengthening of low-level jet orthogonal
to aforementioned boundary should support an increase in
convection. Furthermore, remnant MCS may move along and north of
the synoptic surface boundary as well. The greatest coverage
should be after midnight across northwest/north-central Oklahoma
spreading into portions of central Oklahoma late tonight and
eventually southeast portions of our area tomorrow morning.
Convection could linger into the afternoon across southern
portions of the area, and by evening/overnight will increase in
coverage again as another shortwave trough approaches. Some of
this is conditional on placement of synoptic boundary which will
likely be augmented by convective outflow. Additionally, there is
concern for locally heavy rainfall amounts given the anomalous
moisture (PWAT on average around ~1.75" in models) and weak
850-300 hPa flow. Any flooding/flash flooding concerns should be
localized as it appears now across mainly southern Oklahoma.

Showers and storms should decrease Thur-Fri but could linger near
the Red River, but most of the area will be dry and cooler than
has been seen the last several days. A closed low and return of
deeper moisture could bring an increase in convective coverage
late this weekend into early next week. Little/no change was made
to this portion of the forecast.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  83  69  88 /  80  70  50  10
Hobart OK         75  87  70  90 /  50  40  60  20
Wichita Falls TX  78  92  72  90 /  40  30  70  30
Gage OK           70  86  65  90 /  80  30  30  10
Ponca City OK     73  88  68  91 /  50  50  20  10
Durant OK         75  90  72  88 /  40  60  70  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

09/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
318 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-082030-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
318 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
This afternoon and evening, thunderstorms will be possible, mainly
across central and eastern Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma City
area. Additional thunderstorms are possible across much of the
area late tonight. A few storms could be strong to severe with the
primary hazard being damaging wind gusts to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible across most of the area Wednesday
and Thursday. The highest chances for thunderstorms are expected
early Wednesday morning, and late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning. A few strong to severe storms will be possible
Wednesday across southwest Oklahoma and portions of western north
Texas, with a threat of damaging wind gusts.

At least a low chance for thunderstorms will continue through
Sunday, especially across the southern half of Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of north Texas.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Heavy rainfall will be possible across the northern two-thirds of
Oklahoma Wednesday morning, and then again Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning across the southern two thirds of
Oklahoma. Excessive rainfall may lead to localized flooding.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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