Severe Thunderstorm Warning 516, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
259 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
With the exception of far southeast Oklahoma, most of the widespread
areas of precipitation have dissipated this morning.
Destabilization will continue through the afternoon resulting in
weak to moderate instability. Initial storm develop may be across
northwest Oklahoma by mid afternoon as a frontal boundary
approaches. More numerous showers and storms are expected as
the initial storms move east and southeast.

Effective shear values around 25-30 kts and sufficient
instability will result in a few strong to severe storms. A rather
moist air mass remains in place, therefore locally heavy rainfall
will also be a concern. At this time, will keep higher rain
chances across north central/central Oklahoma this evening with a
a shift to the east and southeast overnight.

Height rises will occur later tonight into Wednesday as a mid-level
low over Kansas moves east. This will favor much lower rain
chances compared to Monday and today. Better rain chances
Wednesday into Wednesday night will be across southern Oklahoma
and western north Texas.

A shortwave trough will move southeast across the central Plains
Thursday into Friday. Thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday
into Friday, but better chances appear to be north and east of
the area.

A strong trough will approach the central and southern Plains late
Saturday through Sunday. This will bring a better chance of
widespread showers and storms along with below average
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  87  71  92 /  80  10  10  20
Hobart OK         71  92  73  95 /  50   0  30  20
Wichita Falls TX  73  92  75  96 /  20   0  20  10
Gage OK           64  88  67  93 /  20   0  30  20
Ponca City OK     68  87  66  90 /  80  10  10  10
Durant OK         71  90  75  94 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1159 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
This afternoon and evening, a few strong to perhaps severe
thunderstorms may develop across southwest, central and north
central Oklahoma. The stronger storms may produce damaging wind
gusts over 60 mph, hail larger than quarters, and locally heavy
rainfall. Thunderstorm intensity will decrease around sunset. The
most likely time for strong to severe storms will be from 4 pm
through 9 pm.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall amounts will occur with thunderstorms today
and this could lead to flooding in some areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday, but
better chances will begin Thursday night and continue through
Monday. Severe storms are unlikely during this period.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
423 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

TXZ085-086-142200-
Wichita TX-Wilbarger TX-
423 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Wichita and
southeastern Wilbarger Counties Until 500 PM CDT....

AT 420 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles north of
Lake Diversion, moving northeast at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 9900 3407 9886 3391 9868 3383 9894
      3383 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 232DEG 13KT 3389 9892

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
439 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

OKZ024-025-029-142215-
Oklahoma OK-Canadian OK-Cleveland OK-
439 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Oklahoma...
southeastern Canadian and northwestern Cleveland Counties Until 515
PM CDT....

AT 437 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over southwestern
Oklahoma City, moving east at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of dimes...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Oklahoma City, Moore, Mustang, Valley Brook and Will
Rogers Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Severe weather is not expected and no warnings are anticipated at
this time.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 9746 3533 9767 3534 9768 3533 9769
      3533 9772 3541 9774 3546 9749
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 258DEG 18KT 3536 9764

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
443 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

OKZ026-142230-
Lincoln OK-
443 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Lincoln County Until 530
PM CDT....

AT 441 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Carney, moving
east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 9708 3581 9708 3583 9682 3570 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 272DEG 14KT 3576 9702

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
457 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

OKZ018-142245-
Kingfisher OK-
457 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Kingfisher County
Until 545 PM CDT....

AT 455 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest of
Okarche, moving east at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Heavy rain can lead to reduced visibility...

Locations impacted include...
Kingfisher and Okarche.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 9816 3583 9817 3591 9786 3573 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 263DEG 17KT 3579 9809

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
508 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

OKZ018-142245-
Kingfisher OK-
508 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR west central Kingfisher County
Until 545 PM CDT....

AT 506 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Loyal, moving
east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Dover and Loyal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 9818 3604 9817 3604 9787 3589 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 278DEG 15KT 3599 9810

03