Severe Thunderstorm Warning 500, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
228 AM CDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The primary forecast issue is the chance of showers/storms the
next 36 hours with the potential of localized flooding this
morning.

A shortwave trough is approaching from the west this morning.
Ahead of the wave, a strengthening low-level jet and attendant
isentropic ascent has resulted in showers/storms developing along
a northwest to southeast corridor from northwest Oklahoma to
central Oklahoma.

Training thunderstorms along this line may result in localized
flooding--especially in any urban areas. Therefore, a Flood Watch
was issued for this morning. Some flooding will be a concern for
this morning's commute.

Showers/storms are expected to gradually move south-southeastward
through the morning and early afternoon hours. After this complex
of thunderstorms passes by, most locations will likely experience
a break in precipitation.

For tonight, another shortwave trough is expected to approach
from the north with additional showers/storms developing within a
corridor of isentropic ascent ahead of the wave.

There still remains some uncertainty where the greatest chance of
showers/storms will be located tonight. Currently, the greatest
ascent appears to be on the nose of a low-level jet across
southwest Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas (farther
south than this morning). This area seems to be preferred by many
convective-allowing models as well.

For Thursday afternoon and Friday, most locations should be dry;
however, showers/storms will be possible near the Red River and
north Texas. Some showers/storms could even impact western
Oklahoma by Friday.

Toward the weekend into early next week, an unsettled pattern is
still expected across the Southern Plains. Both the ECMWF and GFS
continue to indicate the presence of a closed upper-level low with
high moisture/precipitable water values. The 08/00Z GFS has
widespread 1.5 to 2.0+" precipitable water values by Sunday.

Consequently, there a daily chance of showers/storms with cooler
than average temperatures. Heavy rainfall/flooding may be an issue
in this period as well.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  70  89  69 /  80  40  10  10
Hobart OK         90  70  90  70 /  40  50  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  98  72  92  72 /  40  70  30  30
Gage OK           88  67  90  67 /  30  30  10  10
Ponca City OK     87  68  92  69 /  30  20  10  10
Durant OK         93  72  88  71 /  70  70  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

03/10

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
823 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-090130-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
823 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move across portions of southern Oklahoma this evening. Gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain will be the main
concerns with these storms.

Additional storms will be possible across portions of Oklahoma and
western north Texas overnight into Wednesday morning, mainly
toward and after midnight. A few of these storms could become
strong producing gusty winds. Heavy rain and cloud to ground
lightning will also be concerns overnight into Wednesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible across most of the area Wednesday
and Thursday. The highest chances for thunderstorms are expected
early Wednesday morning, and late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning. A few strong to severe storms will be possible
Wednesday across southwest Oklahoma and portions of western north
Texas, with a threat of damaging wind gusts.

At least a low chance for thunderstorms will continue through
Sunday, especially across the southern half of Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of north Texas.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Heavy rainfall will be possible across the northern two-thirds of
Oklahoma Wednesday morning, and then again Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning across the southern two thirds of
Oklahoma. Excessive rainfall may lead to localized flooding.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
314 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

OKZ029-030-080845-
Pottawatomie OK-Cleveland OK-
314 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Pottawatomie and
east central Cleveland Counties Until 345 AM CDT....

AT 310 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Tribbey, moving
east at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 9729 3520 9728 3520 9696 3494 9697
TIME...MOT...LOC 0810Z 279DEG 15KT 3510 9709

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
316 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

OKZ029-080845-
Cleveland OK-
316 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northern Cleveland County Until
345 AM CDT....

AT 315 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over northwestern
Norman, moving southeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Southern Oklahoma City, Norman, Moore, Noble and western Lake
Thunderbird.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 9740 3515 9741 3521 9752 3531 9757
      3538 9744 3528 9722
TIME...MOT...LOC 0815Z 305DEG 16KT 3529 9744

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
321 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

OKZ004-005-010-080900-
Woodward OK-Harper OK-Woods OK-
321 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northeastern Woodward...eastern
Harper and northern Woods Counties Until 400 AM CDT....

AT 317 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
8 miles north of Buffalo to 8 miles northwest of Freedom to 12 miles
northwest of Alva, moving south at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Freedom, Alabaster Caverns State Park, Selman, Avard and
Camp Houston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9879 3666 9867 3658 9925 3676 9973
      3700 9966
TIME...MOT...LOC 0817Z 344DEG 13KT 3696 9965 3683 9925 3691 9885

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
327 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

OKZ005-006-011-012-080915-
Major OK-Garfield OK-Alfalfa OK-Woods OK-
327 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Major...west central
Garfield...southern Alfalfa and southeastern Woods Counties Until 415
AM CDT....

AT 322 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
11 miles west of Orienta to 4 miles southeast of Aline to 4 miles
southeast of Helena, moving southeast at 30 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of dimes...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Enid, Fairview, Helena, Lahoma, Ringwood, Drummond, Carmen, Cleo
Springs, Goltry, Meno, Aline, Carrier, Vance Air Force Base and
Orienta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 9882 3629 9796 3634 9785 3659 9811
      3658 9845 3655 9877
TIME...MOT...LOC 0822Z 296DEG 27KT 3642 9867 3647 9840 3649 9822

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
354 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

OKZ011-012-015-017-018-080945-
Major OK-Garfield OK-Kingfisher OK-Dewey OK-Blaine OK-
354 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Major...southwestern Garfield...
northern Kingfisher...northeastern Dewey and northern Blaine Counties
Until 445 AM CDT....

AT 350 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Drummond to 5 miles northeast of Chester, moving southeast at 40
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 9768 3601 9864 3635 9896 3648 9802
TIME...MOT...LOC 0850Z 311DEG 33KT 3629 9802 3627 9886

03

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
356 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

OKZ004>006-010-011-080945-
Major OK-Woodward OK-Alfalfa OK-Harper OK-Woods OK-
356 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Major...northeastern
Woodward...southwestern Alfalfa...southeastern Harper and southern
Woods Counties Until 445 AM CDT....

AT 354 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
4 miles west of Dacoma to 4 miles north of Mooreland to 6 miles
northeast of Fort Supply, moving southeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Mooreland, Waynoka, Carmen, Cleo Springs, Freedom, Aline, Dacoma,
Alabaster Caverns State Park, Quinlan, Avard, Hopeton, Bouse Junction
and Camp Houston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Severe weather is not expected and no warnings are anticipated at
this time.

&&

LAT...LON 3640 9836 3626 9882 3632 9925 3659 9950
      3685 9938 3675 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0854Z 305DEG 18KT 3664 9864 3651 9920 3664 9949

03