Severe Thunderstorm Warning 484, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
926 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

...Update...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The previous forecast remains on track. Based on trends in
observations and short term guidance, we made some minor
adjustments to the forecast for tonight (mainly timing and
magnitude of precip probability and weather grids).

Latest radar mosaic and satellite imagery shows intense convection
moving southeast across eastern Colorado with a recent uptick in
lightning activity and slightly colder cloud tops on IR along its
eastern flank into western Kansas. This is moving into a modestly
unstable air mass that is moderately sheared (effective shear
40-45 knots as sampled by 00 UTC KDDC sounding). Further
downstream across Oklahoma, an even more favorable thermodynamic
environment exists with deeper boundary layer moisture and more
instability (~2200 MLCAPE on KOUN 00 UTC sounding). Although some
stabilization of the boundary layer will occur this evening into
early tonight, short term guidance maintains 1,500-2,000 J/kg
MUCAPE across much of the area through the night. Thus, storm
intensity should be at least maintained, if not increase as storms
enter northern Oklahoma around or just before midnight. Some
decrease will occur as storms move into slightly more stable and
less sheared environment over southern Oklahoma.

Upscale growth and evolution into an MCS will lower the risk of
large hail, and damaging winds will become the primary threat as
storms move in. Although heavy rainfall will be likely with these
storms given the moist environment, training/backbuilding is
unlikely so the flood threat is not high.

We adjusted precipitation chances up with 90%+ across the area
most likely in the path of MCS (based on current convection and
forward propagating Corfidi vectors). We also made minor
adjustments to winds and lowered temperatures late tonight
slightly across the north.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 652 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
A large complex of thunderstorms are expected to enter
northwestern Oklahoma after midnight and move through much of the
state shortly after sunrise. MVFR conditions will likely prevail
through late morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The primary forecast issue is the chance of showers/storms and
severe weather tonight/tomorrow morning.

Similar to last night, thunderstorms are expected to coalesce
into an MCS or two across eastern Colorado/western Kansas/western
Nebraska later today and move southeastward into northern Oklahoma
late this evening/early tomorrow morning.

Ascent/forcing appears to be greater tonight with a higher-
amplitude mid-level trough, so severe weather may occur farther
southeast than last night as there will be sufficient instability
(MUCAPE >2000 J/kg) and effective bulk shear (>40 knots) as well.
The primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts with the potential
for bowing line segments associated with the MCS(s).

For Monday afternoon, the chance of showers/storms is lower than
previously forecast as it would not be surprising if little
redevelopment occurs with the MCS pushing the effective cold-front
southeastward, well into Texas; however, will maintain a low
chance for redevelopment as the 500 mb trough axis passes by
Monday afternoon. Cooler weather is expected Monday afternoon with
temperatures 10 to 15 F below average for late July.

Deep northerly flow aloft is expected on Tuesday with the Plains
located between a high-amplitude ridge to the west and a high-
amplitude trough to the east. This should result in continued
cooler than average temperatures and low dew points for Tuesday.
Wednesday morning will be cool with dew points in the 50Fs, light
winds, and clear skies allowing temperatures to fall into the low
60Fs for many locations. It wouldn't be unreasonable for some
rural locations to fall into the upper 50Fs.

Temperatures will moderate closer to average toward the end of
the week as the eastern U.S. trough deamplifies and the western
ridge expands eastward.

There is a low chance of showers/storms may affect far western
Oklahoma/north Texas late Wednesday and Thursday; however, most
locations should remain dry after Monday through the forecast
period.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  69  80  64 /  50  90  50  10
Hobart OK         98  69  83  64 /  50  80  30  10
Wichita Falls TX 103  72  86  68 /  30  60  50  20
Gage OK           90  66  78  60 /  20  80  30   0
Ponca City OK     86  69  81  61 /  20  80  30  10
Durant OK         95  74  86  67 /  80  60  70  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
315 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-302015-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
315 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions
of northern and central Oklahoma tonight.

Location...
The Slight Risk is north of line from near Altus, to Duncan to
Holdenville, Oklahoma. A Marginal Risk covers the rest of Oklahoma
and parts of north Texas, generally north of a line from near
Crowell to Henrietta, Texas.

Timing...
The most likely time for severe thunderstorms will be 11 PM this
evening to 4 AM Monday morning.

Impacts...
Damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph.
Hail up the size of quarters.

Discussion...
A complex of thunderstorms is expected to move into northern
Oklahoma tonight and move southeastward across the state.
Thunderstorms should gradualy weaken as they move toward southern
Oklahoma and the Red River.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
northern and central Oklahoma should prepare for severe weather
operations tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are expected to continue Monday and Monday night.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across western Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of north Texas Wednesday into Thursday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
112 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2018

OKZ009-010-014>016-300645-
Woodward OK-Roger Mills OK-Dewey OK-Custer OK-Ellis OK-
112 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Woodward...
northeastern Roger Mills...Dewey...northwestern Custer and
southeastern Ellis Counties Until 145 AM CDT....

AT 110 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Chester to 8 miles southwest of Arnett, moving southeast at 35
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

Locations impacted include...
Taloga, Seiling, Vici, Leedey, Camargo, Mutual, Putnam, Moorewood,
Harmon, Roll, Angora and Cestos.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 9981 3628 9896 3616 9896 3616 9887
      3581 9880 3566 9970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0610Z 335DEG 28KT 3622 9895 3606 9989

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
123 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2018

OKZ012-300645-
Garfield OK-
123 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Garfield County Until 145
AM CDT....

AT 121 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Carrier to 4 miles southeast of Douglas, moving southeast at 25
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning...

Locations impacted include...
Enid, Waukomis, Covington, Marshall, Breckenridge, Fairmont, Carrier,
Douglas, Vance Air Force Base, North Enid and Hayward.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 9746 3617 9746 3616 9767 3641 9811
      3648 9810 3652 9781
TIME...MOT...LOC 0621Z 293DEG 23KT 3645 9803 3622 9761

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
146 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2018

OKZ009-014>016-021-022-300715-
Washita OK-Roger Mills OK-Dewey OK-Beckham OK-Custer OK-Ellis OK-
146 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northern Washita...eastern Roger
Mills...Dewey...northeastern Beckham...Custer and southeastern Ellis
Counties Until 215 AM CDT....

AT 143 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Oakwood to near Putnam to near Strong City, moving southeast at
25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts over 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3610 9864 3545 9862 3532 9959 3597 9979
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 334DEG 21KT 3593 9870 3586 9894 3567 9960

BRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
215 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2018

OKZ014-016-021-022-300745-
Washita OK-Roger Mills OK-Beckham OK-Custer OK-
215 AM CDT MON JUL 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Washita...Roger Mills...Beckham
and western Custer Counties Until 245 AM CDT....

AT 214 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
3 miles east of Arapaho to 6 miles north of Sweetwater, moving south
at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 10000 3575 9886 3512 9876 3511 9944
      3512 9978 3510 9978 3510 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 348DEG 23KT 3557 9889 3552 9993

BRB

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