Severe Thunderstorm Warning 447, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
625 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 00 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall, VFR conditions are expected to continue.

ISO-NUM SHRA/TSRA will affect many sites before 02 UTC; thus,
went with VCTS/VCSH with TEMPOs across several TAF sites.
Gusty variable winds as well as brief MVFR or lower conditions
are possible with any SHRA/TSRA.

Chances of TSRA/SHRA remain too low to mention after 02 UTC.

A few locations where TSRA/SHRA has already occurred may
experience MVFR or lower conditions 06-15 UTC. Did not mention at
any site due to low confidence of occurrence, though KCSM may have
slightly higher chances of occurrence compared to other TAF sites.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 321 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Determining which days have the highest probabilities for
scattered showers/storms is the primary forecast issue through the
forecast period.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing across western
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas this afternoon. Similar
to yesterday, heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard. A
secondary hazard will be damaging wind gusts with any stronger,
collapsing cores. Expect most of the convection to dissipate this
evening with the loss of daytime heating.

For Saturday, lower precipitable water values are forecast to advect
from the northeast with east-northeasterly mean 1000-500 mb flow.
This will place the highest precipitable water values across west
central and southern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas.
This is where the chance of showers/storms were confined for
Saturday. The relatively low values should prevent much convection
on Sunday--except for the southeast Oklahoma.

By Monday, higher precipitable water values--potentially near 2.0"--
are forecast to advect back into southeastern/southern Oklahoma with
southeasterly mean 1000-500 mb flow. This will be coincident with
lowered heights/a weakness in the ridge across the Southern Plains
as the mid-level ridge splits with two localized maxima. As a
result, there will be an increasing chance of showers/storms,
especially across southern/eastern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of
north Texas. There is still uncertainty on how far northwest
convection may occur, but there is a low chance at least to I-44.

A low chance of showers/storms should persist through the end of
the forecast period. Temperatures should also remain in check
near seasonal averages.

Mahale

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

23/17

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1146 AM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-071700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1146 AM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible. The greatest
coverage of storms are expected across western and southern
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas through the early
evening. The stronger storms will produce very heavy rainfall and
strong gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the area Saturday,
and also Monday through Wednesday. Severe storms are unlikely.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
709 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CADDO                   34.13N 96.26W
07/06/2018                   BRYAN              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UTILITY POLE DOWNED, MULTIPLE TREES DOWNED,
            ROOF REMOVED FROM HOUSE.

&&

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
713 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

OKZ037-070045-
Tillman OK-
713 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Tillman County Until 745
PM CDT....

AT 711 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hollister,
moving west at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...

LAT...LON 3446 9906 3443 9873 3425 9872 3421 9895
      3421 9896 3420 9897 3422 9899 3420 9901
      3421 9904 3420 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 87DEG 12KT 3434 9882

..speg.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
729 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

OKZ046-070100-
Carter OK-
729 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Carter County Until
800 PM CDT....

AT 728 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northwest of
Ardmore, moving southwest at 15 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3432 9713 3418 9705 3409 9732 3431 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 67DEG 11KT 3424 9718

..speg.

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