Severe Thunderstorm Warning 441, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
248 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...
No changes to 1:19 PM AFD...

On average, early afternoon temperatures (1 pm) are 5 to
15 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time.  This is mainly
a result of morning convection and extensive cloud cover.
Much of the morning precipitation over central and north central
Oklahoma has either weakened or developed to the east and south.

For this afternoon and evening, three features should aid in
thunderstorm development. First, there is an outflow boundary
that is aiding in current storm development across south central
Oklahoma. Second, a MCV that is drifting slowly northeast near our
Texas counties. Lastly, a weak cold front draped across west
central/northwest Oklahoma. Based on current radar trends and
other factors, southern Oklahoma and western north Texas will have
the best opportunity for showers and storms through the early to
mid evening. Unlike yesterday, do not expect an organized area to
develop and move/propagate over a large area. The stronger storms
will certainly produce very heavy rain along with a risk of
strong to perhaps damaging winds.

Later this evening and overnight, it's possible that more storms may
form across northern Oklahoma, as low level winds back and
increase. Models also show storm development across southwest
Texas that may reach our western north Texas counties late
tonight.

It still appears that most of Monday and Tuesday will be dry with
a return of much warmer/hotter temperatures.  The center of a mid
level ridge, currently over the mid Atlantic and Northeast U.S.,
will build to the west during the mid to later part of this week.
Meanwhile, an easterly wave may increase chances of showers
across mainly southern Oklahoma and north Texas on Wednesday.
Perhaps by next weekend, the ridge will build far enough west,
that evening storms to our west and north may enter northern
Oklahoma during the overnight/early morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  74  94  74  97 /  30  10  10   0
Hobart OK         74  98  75 101 /  30  10  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  75 101  76 104 /  40  10  10   0
Gage OK           71  95  72  98 /  20  10  20   0
Ponca City OK     74  93  74  95 /  20  10  10   0
Durant OK         76  99  75  97 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-021115-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1144 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight across
portions of the area. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon across southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas. The primary hazard with any severe storms will be
damaging wind gusts. Further, any thunderstorm could produce very
heavy rainfall resulting in some flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms are possible in northwest Oklahoma Monday
evening. Thunderstorms could occur across southern Oklahoma
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Thunderstorms are possible across
most of the area Friday and Saturday. Severe thunderstorms are
unlikely during this period.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
247 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

OKZ039-044-045-012015-
Cotton OK-Stephens OK-Jefferson OK-
247 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Cotton...
southwestern Stephens and northwestern Jefferson Counties Until 315
PM CDT....

AT 244 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of
Hastings, moving northeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

LAT...LON 3412 9821 3424 9829 3434 9803 3422 9791
      3414 9810 3415 9811 3415 9813 3411 9817
      3411 9819
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 240DEG 20KT 3420 9819

WR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
311 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

OKZ045-046-050-012045-
Love OK-Carter OK-Jefferson OK-
311 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Love...southwestern
Carter and east central Jefferson Counties Until 345 PM CDT....

AT 307 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Grady to 4 miles northwest of St. Jo, moving northeast at 15
MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Healdton, Wilson, Ringling, Leon, Grady, Rubottom, Burneyville,
Cornish, Courtney and Petersburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3384 9746 3389 9745 3391 9747 3392 9750
      3390 9755 3390 9759 3392 9760 3395 9759
      3397 9761 3399 9767 3397 9770 3405 9773
      3433 9751 3386 9726 3387 9728 3389 9731
      3385 9733 3388 9733 3382 9738 3382 9743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 208DEG 13KT 3404 9768 3375 9757

11

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