Severe Thunderstorm Warning 409, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
925 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Overall forecast looks in decent shape for the rest of this
evening and overnight. As a rather strong trough/vort max
moves across the Panhandles and the northern half of Oklahoma,
widespread rain and storms will continue to form and move
east/southeast tonight. Still a little uncertain how far south
and west storms can develop through Monday morning however, so
will leave lower POPs in far southern third of Oklahoma and north
Texas counties.  Will likely see some severe wind gusts with
the storms but a little unsure about large hail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 701 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
A complex of thunderstorms is expected to approach northwest
Oklahoma late this evening and move across much of the northern
half of Oklahoma until after sunrise Monday. Strong wind gusts are
expected. These storms will move east of the TAF sites by late
morning Monday and MVFR clouds will lift during the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Few if any changes were needed in the long term, and most of the
focus today was on short term concerns. An MCS moved through
overnight and morning convection persisted behind it, and then
began forward propagating southeast. Increasing instability ahead
of it should increase the damaging wind potential into southern
Oklahoma. Locally heavy rainfall amounts and flooding/flash
flooding are possible, but the storms should have enough
forward momentum to preclude a significant flash flood threat.
The greatest concern may be from near Velma, to Sulphur, to Atoka
where heavy rainfall fell yesterday morning.

Uncertainty is above normal tonight given effects from significant
convection ongoing. Overturning may limit instability some but a
strong low-level jet may replenish low level moisture and
instability this evening/overnight to support maintenance of High
Plains MCS that is expected to evolve and most east-southeast. At
least some severe weather potential is possible, with the greatest
chance of significant severe and hail to our west, evolving into
mostly a wind/heavy rain threat tonight. If convective intensity
maintains into central Oklahoma, moisture transport vectors and
strong theta-e advection along with decreasing Corfidi vectors may
lead to localized flooding becoming the main threat later tonight.

We increased rain chances Monday within band of particularly high
PWAT values, along synoptic boundary, although best forcing for
ascent will be north of us with departing trough. Any convection
that occurs could produce heavy rainfall amounts and a localized
flooding/flash flooding threat especially where the ground is
saturated.

A drier/warmer pattern is expected for the rest of the week.
Little/no changes were made as the focus has been mostly on short
term hazards.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  84  72  95 /  70  50  50  10
Hobart OK         70  88  72  99 /  60  30  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  75  98  76  99 /  20  10  40   0
Gage OK           64  85  69  98 /  90  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     67  83  72  96 /  80  50  50  10
Durant OK         72  93  75  95 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-260345-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1034 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms overnight.

Location...
The slight risk is generally along and west of an Alva to Clinton
and Seymour, Texas line. A marginal risk covers the area east of
the slight area to around Interstate 35.

Timing...
After 11 PM through 5 AM Monday.

Impacts...
Damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph.
Heavy rainfall that may cause localized flooding.
Hail up to the size of golf balls.

Discussion...
Thunderstorms over southeastern Colorado and western
Kansas will move through parts of Oklahoma overnight. Strong
damaging winds will be the main risk with some hail and heavy
rainfall possible.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk area should prepare for severe weather operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
There will be a chance for thunderstorms Monday into early
Tuesday. A few strong thunderstorms are possible Monday.

.Heat...
Heat index values from 100 to 105 degrees are forecast through
much of this week. If you will be outdoors, limit strenuous
activities and take frequent breaks.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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