Severe Thunderstorm Warning 405, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
246 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Few if any changes were needed in the long term, and most of the
focus today was on short term concerns. An MCS moved through
overnight and morning convection persisted behind it, and then
began forward propagating southeast. Increasing instability ahead
of it should increase the damaging wind potential into southern
Oklahoma. Locally heavy rainfall amounts and flooding/flash
flooding are possible, but the storms should have enough
forward momentum to preclude a significant flash flood threat.
The greatest concern may be from near Velma, to Sulphur, to Atoka
where heavy rainfall fell yesterday morning.

Uncertainty is above normal tonight given effects from significant
convection ongoing. Overturning may limit instability some but a
strong low-level jet may replenish low level moisture and
instability this evening/overnight to support maintenance of High
Plains MCS that is expected to evolve and most east-southeast. At
least some severe weather potential is possible, with the greatest
chance of significant severe and hail to our west, evolving into
mostly a wind/heavy rain threat tonight. If convective intensity
maintains into central Oklahoma, moisture transport vectors and
strong theta-e advection along with decreasing Corfidi vectors may
lead to localized flooding becoming the main threat later tonight.

We increased rain chances Monday within band of particularly high
PWAT values, along synoptic boundary, although best forcing for
ascent will be north of us with departing trough. Any convection
that occurs could produce heavy rainfall amounts and a localized
flooding/flash flooding threat especially where the ground is
saturated.

A drier/warmer pattern is expected for the rest of the week.
Little/no changes were made as the focus has been mostly on short
term hazards.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  84  72  95 /  50  50  50  10
Hobart OK         71  88  72  99 /  50  30  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  98  76  99 /  30  10  40   0
Gage OK           65  85  69  98 /  60  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     68  83  72  96 /  70  50  50  10
Durant OK         72  93  75  95 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...High Wind Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ012-013-
     017>020-024-025.

TX...None.
&&

03/12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
351 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251115-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
351 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms.

Location...
The Slight Risk covers most of western, central and southern
Oklahoma, and parts of western north Texas. A Marginal Risk
covers parts of north central Oklahoma and parts of
western north Texas.

Timing...
Through 7 pm for severe storms over southern Oklahoma this
afternoon. Additional severe storms may move into northern
and western Oklahoma after 10 pm.

Impacts...
Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.
Heavy rainfall that may cause localized flooding.
Hail up to the size of golf balls.

Discussion...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across
south central and southeast Oklahoma through about 7 pm
Sunday.  The main risks will be heavy rainfall and strong
damaging winds. Other thunderstorms may develop along
an outflow boundary in western north Texas, but a strong
cap may prevent thunderstorm development.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to form over the High
Plains and move across parts of Oklahoma late this evening and
overnight. Strong damaging winds will be the main risk with some
hail and heavy rainfall possible.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk area should prepare for severe weather operations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
There will be a chance for thunderstorms Monday into early
Tuesday. A few strong thunderstorms are possible Monday.

.Heat...
Heat index values from 100 to 105 degrees are forecast through
much of this week. If you will be outdoors, limit strenuous
activities and take frequent breaks.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 W MARLOW              34.65N 98.12W
06/24/2018  E63 MPH          STEPHENS           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
357 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE ADA               34.72N 96.64W
06/24/2018                   PONTOTOC           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN AND BLOCKING ROADWAY AT
            STATE HWY 3/COUNTY RD 1580.

&&

PW

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