Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
235 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Expect storms to develop within the next couple of hours across
northwest Oklahoma with the potential of isolated to scattered
storms south along the dryline. We will likely see some severe
storms late this afternoon and this evening. Storms in northwest
Oklahoma and southwest Kansas are expected to evolve into a storm
complex that will move east and southeast toward north central and
central Oklahoma. The latest hazardous weather outlook has our
current thinking on this evolution and expected types of severe
weather. Have likely POPs associated with this complex overnight.
Storms will likely be east of our area by 12z. We may see another
complex is expected to move across northern Oklahoma on Wednesday
evening. Otherwise, hot temperatures are expected through much of
the week with not-quite-as-hot temperatures expected by this
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  93  74  98 /  40  10  10   0
Hobart OK         70  98  73 105 /  20   0  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  74 100  77 104 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           65  90  66  98 /  50   0  30  10
Ponca City OK     68  91  71  93 /  70  10  70  20
Durant OK         72  93  74  95 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
352 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-301100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
352 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms today and tonight.

.Location...
The enhanced risk is northwest of a line from Blackwell to
Kingfisher to Fort Cobb to Erick. South and east of the enhanced
risk area, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms to Tulsa,
McAlester, Sulphur, Walters, and Altus. There is a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms for the rest of Oklahoma and adjacent parts of
northern Texas.

.Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms is from 4 pm today until 3 am
Wednesday.

.Impacts...
Hail to the size of baseballs and damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph
are the primary hazards. There is a low potential for tornadoes,
mainly with isolated storms this afternoon and early evening in
western Oklahoma. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall
which would cause flash flooding in northern, central, and
southeastern Oklahoma.

.Discussion...
A dryline will move into the eastern Oklahoma and Texas panhandles
this afternoon or early this evening. Isolated or scattered storms
will develop and move into western Oklahoma this afternoon. The most
likely area for further thunderstorm development will be in
northwestern Oklahoma, although isolated or scattered thunderstorms
may form farther south on the dryline toward southwestern Oklahoma
and adjacent parts of northern Texas.

Through the evening, storms in northwestern Oklahoma and
southwestern Kansas are expected to evolve into a storm complex that
will spread east and southeast through the enhanced risk area
through the evening and into early Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel should
prepare for severe weather operations through early Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms will remain possible over central, eastern,
and southeastern Oklahoma through Wednesday morning. Scattered
thunderstorms may then develop across northern Oklahoma Wednesday
night through early Thursday morning.

.Heat...
Excessively hot conditions are expected across the western half of
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas in the second half of
the week. Daytime temperatures will range 15 to 25 degrees above
normal late-Spring values.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
313 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

OKZ004-292045-
Harper OK-
313 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Harper County Until
345 PM CDT...

AT 309 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast of
Rosston, moving northeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9963 3683 9979 3691 9999 3700 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 208DEG 16KT 3694 9985

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
350 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

OKZ004-292115-
Harper OK-
350 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR north central Harper County Until
415 PM CDT...

AT 347 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles southeast
of Acres, moving northeast at 25 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 40 MPH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9954 3687 9962 3697 9994 3700 9992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 213DEG 20KT 3697 9976

30

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