Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
631 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered TSRA will likely persist until around 09Z in/near the
northwest corner of Oklahoma. Most other convection is more
likely to die out before 03Z. With little change in the overall
pattern and moisture configuration, we should generally see
similar conditions tonight/tomorrow as we saw last night/today.
There is some signal in the models for fog early Thursday in
southeast Kansas and north-central/northeast Oklahoma. This does
not appear to be fully consistent with the other weather
conditions forecast by the same models, so we will omit any
significant restrictions to visibility at KPNC for now.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 407 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers/storms have developed this afternoon and may
persist across southeast Oklahoma until sunset. Additional
showers/storms may approach western Oklahoma/adjacent parts of
north Texas from the High Plains late this evening or tonight.
Severe weather is not expected.

For Thursday afternoon, an elongated area of mid-level vorticity
will continue to be a focus for diurnal thunderstorms across the
eastern half of Oklahoma. Mid-level temperatures are expected to
be cooler in this area (~6-7C).

By Friday afternoon, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast pass
by the Central Plains. Ascent from this wave is forecast to lift
the capping layer, which will reduce convective inhibition. In
addition, there are some indications that an outflow boundary
and/or a remnant MCV from convection may move into northern
Oklahoma. Consequently, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop across north central
Oklahoma.

The mid-level weakness across eastern Oklahoma is expected to
move eastward. Therefore, coverage across eastern/southeastern
Oklahoma is expected to be less on Friday afternoon.

Forecast soundings across northern Oklahoma indicate large
downdraft CAPE (>1500 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse rates in the
subcloud layer, so damaging wind gusts from downbursts will be
possible. Large hail will also be possible with large/wide CAPE in
the hail-growth zone.

For Sunday and Monday, isolated thunderstorms may affect
northwestern Oklahoma within an area of stronger mid-level flow.

The extended forecast will be modulated by the location of the
mid-level ridge. Overall, it appears that low rain chances will
persist across northern, western, and southeastern Oklahoma (on
the periphery of the ridge) with most locations remaining hot and
dry.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  89  69  91 /  10  20  20  10
Hobart OK         68  90  69  96 /  20  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  68  91  70  95 /  20  10  10  10
Gage OK           66  91  68  97 /  40  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     67  89  70  91 /  20  30  30  20
Durant OK         68  89  70  91 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

11/23/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241700-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1150 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area
this afternoon. Lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds can be
expected with any storms that develop, but severe thunderstorms
are unlikely. There is also a low chance remnant thunderstorms
could affect far western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north
Texas tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible
Thursday, especially during the afternoon. An isolated severe
storm or two is possible, with the greatest concern being brief
localized damaging wind gusts.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could occur Friday afternoon
and Saturday afternoon and a few could be severe with damaging
wind gusts being the main threat. Widespread severe weather is not
expected.

A few thunderstorms could move eastward into western Oklahoma
during the evening hours Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Severe
thunderstorms are unlikely during this period.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Mahale

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
844 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

OKZ005-006-240215-
Alfalfa OK-Woods OK-
844 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Alfalfa and
northeastern Woods Counties Until 915 PM CDT...

AT 840 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest of
Capron, moving north at 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

LAT...LON 3673 9853 3679 9879 3700 9878 3700 9836
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 200DEG 6KT 3694 9863

MAD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
915 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

OKZ005-006-240245-
Alfalfa OK-Woods OK-
915 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Alfalfa and
northeastern Woods Counties Until 945 PM CDT...

AT 908 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Capron, moving
northeast at 10 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

LAT...LON 3684 9854 3685 9867 3700 9870 3700 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 211DEG 8KT 3694 9859

MAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
931 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

OKZ004-240300-
Harper OK-
931 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR northwestern Harper County Until
1000 PM CDT...

AT 925 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles southeast
of Acres, moving northeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...

LAT...LON 3700 9956 3671 10000 3700 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 229DEG 18KT 3699 9975

MAD