Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
610 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms are still expected to impact most of the terminals
from 02-06Z tonight. Mid to high clouds will initially increase,
with increasing cumulus over the next couple of hours. Some large
hail and damaging winds could accompany the storms, especially
near CSM, PNC, and SPS. However, will not include any for the time
being and will watch closely for necessary amendments.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  84  65  84 /  60  20  40  30
Hobart OK         67  86  64  86 /  70  30  50  20
Wichita Falls TX  69  88  67  88 /  60  30  50  20
Gage OK           64  79  61  84 /  50  30  60  30
Ponca City OK     67  83  64  83 /  70  20  40  50
Durant OK         70  84  66  87 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

99/99/03

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151715-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1202 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma and western
north Texas.

Location...
The Slight Risk area is northwest of a line from Knox City, Texas
to Lawton to Oklahoma City to Cushing, Oklahoma. A Marginal Risk
area surrounds the Slight Risk area northwest of a line from
Archer City, Texas to Pauls Valley to Seminole, Oklahoma.

Timing...
4 pm this afternoon to midnight tonight.

Impacts...
Damaging wind up to 80 mph is the main hazard.
Large hail up to golf ball size is also possible.

Discussion...
Thunderstorms are expected to form again mid to late this afternoon
either near a dryline in the eastern Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles and/or near a cold front in northwestern Oklahoma. The
air will once again be moist and very unstable. The first storms
that form may be discrete and have the highest potential to
produce large hail. Storms late this afternoon and early this
evening are expected to organize into one or more lines or
clusters. These lines and clusters are expected to move southeast
tonight across parts of Oklahoma and north Texas, producing wind
gusts up to 80 mph in localized areas along with heavy rain,
frequent lightning, and possibly some severe hail. Storms are
expected to weaken through the night as they move southeastward
into a more stable and less sheared environment.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...
Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
the risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations late
this afternoon and tonight.

..Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches in a short period of time
from slow moving thunderstorms may cause flash flooding in a few
locations across Oklahoma and western north Texas late this
afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Some strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds as the
main hazard are possible Tuesday across parts of Oklahoma and
western north Texas, mainly during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Low thunderstorm chances are forecast Wednesday through Friday
across parts of Oklahoma and north Texas. Severe storm potential
remains low Wednesday through Friday.

Chances for strong to severe thunderstorms will likely return to
parts of Oklahoma and north Texas late Saturday.

Thunderstorms may linger on Sunday across parts of Oklahoma and
north Texas.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in a short period of time
from slow moving thunderstorms may cause flash flooding in a few
locations across Oklahoma and north Texas Tuesday and Wednesday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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