River Flood Warning 9, NWS Norman, OK

818 
WGUS84 KOUN 310105
FLSOUN
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
805 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

OKC093-151-153-310135-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180531T0600Z/
/WANO2.1.ER.180530T1945Z.180530T2230Z.180530T2312Z.NO/
805 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Cimarron River near Waynoka. 
  
* At 7 PM Wednesday the stage was 7.9 feet.
  
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
  
* Forecast: The Cimarron River has fallen below flood stage and is 
  forecast to continue to fall. This will be the last statement for 
  this location for this event.
  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 18z TAFs:

The biggest change was to prevail thunder later this evening and
early tonight at northern TAF sites given increased confidence in
a thunderstorm complex moving into the area. Severe thunderstorms
with some hail and wind gusts over 50 knots are possible.
Southward extent of the MCS is in question but OKC and OUN has at
least a low chance of thunder later tonight. Outside of
thunderstorms, VFR conditions are likely.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 916 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Quick update to significantly raise precipitation probabilities
tonight given expected MCS that will organized from High Plains
convection this evening. Also, added more temporal detail and
emphasized the severe risk. Damaging winds will be the primary
threat with forward propagating MCS late this evening and through
the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018/

AVIATION...
A small area of low clouds and fog near WWR (LIFR), should
dissipate rather quickly between 12-13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected this morning through the early evening.

Thunderstorms are expected to move across northern Oklahoma
this evening and overnight. The stronger storms will lower
visibility to around 1 mile with MVFR ceilings possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A small area of thunderstorms over southeastern Oklahoma will
gradually dissipate or move east by sunrise.

Modest height rises will occur today as a trough moves northeast
of the area. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough over Arizona,
will move east and north along the northern periphery of a mid
level ridge. Lift associated with the trough and daytime heating
will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms over the High
Plains. By mid evening, storms are expected to enter western
Oklahoma, with a risk of hail and strong winds. Warm mid level
temperatures should limit thunderstorm coverage south of I-40 in
western Oklahoma. During the late evening and overnight, at least
scattered storms will move across north central Oklahoma and
perhaps central Oklahoma.

After Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, our attention
will turn to very hot temperatures that will build across the
western half of Oklahoma and western north Texas. Heat advisories
will likely be needed for at least Friday and perhaps Thursday.

Late Friday into Saturday, a trough will move across the central
and northern plains.  This will help push a weak cold front into
Oklahoma and north Texas. Although little if any storms are
expected with the frontal passage, temperatures will cool to near
average for early June.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  74  94  74 /  10  50   0   0
Hobart OK         97  73 101  74 /   0  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  99  77 103  77 /   0  10   0   0
Gage OK           90  66  94  70 /   0  60   0   0
Ponca City OK     92  71  92  72 /  10  70   0  10
Durant OK         93  74  94  74 /  70  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-311200-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1154 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms tonight.

.Location...
The Enhanced Risk area covers most of the northern half of
Oklahoma, and is generally north of a line from Arnett to
El Reno to Shawnee. Surrounding the Enhanced Risk is a Slight
Risk north of a line from Cheyenne to Norman to Holdenville.

.Timing...
The most likely time for severe storms will be from 7 PM to 3 AM.

.Impacts...
Damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph is the primary threat. Hail up to
the size of golf balls is also possible, mainly early in the
evening in northwest Oklahoma. The potential for tornadoes is
low. Excessive rainfall could result in flash flooding across
portions of northern Oklahoma.

.Discussion...
Thunderstorms will develop late today across the High Plains to
our west and grow into a complex of storms that will reach
northwest Oklahoma mid to late evening. These storms will then
track eastward over roughly the northern half of Oklahoma
overnight.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across the
risk areas should prepare for severe weather operations from about
7 pm through 3 am.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms will remain possible over northern and central
Oklahoma through early Thursday morning.

.Heat...
Excessively hot conditions are expected across the western half of
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas Thursday and Friday.
A few locations may experience high temperatures over 107 degrees.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 AM     HAIL             DURANT                  34.00N 96.39W
05/30/2018  E1.00 INCH       BRYAN              OK   PUBLIC

            VIA TWITTER.

&&

JP