River Flood Warning 38, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1033 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Rain and thunderstorms will persist through Monday, more
widespread over the western third of Oklahoma. IFR conditions in
low ceilings are expected overnight north of a front in western
and northern Oklahoma, with MVFR conditions in most other areas
and continuing through the day Monday. Thunderstorms will increase
in coverage Monday evening from west to east across Oklahoma.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 647 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Rain and thunderstorms will persist through Monday, more
widespread over the western third of Oklahoma. IFR conditions in
low ceilings are expected overnight north of a front in western
and northern Oklahoma, with MVFR conditions in most other areas
and continuing through the day Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A slow moving warm front will continue to lift across Central
Oklahoma, as an upper long wave trough will continue to approach
from the west. Rain showers behind the warm front will remain more
scattered through this evening across southeast into portions of
central Oklahoma. However the meridional flow aloft across
western Oklahoma will maintain widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms across our west and into northwest Oklahoma through
this evening. There is sufficient instability and marginal shear
for a few of the stronger storms to become severe, especially this
evening as a low level jet increases. A marginal risk is in place
across most of our area, with winds and flooding as the main
hazards.

Meanwhile, moisture from a strengthening tropical cyclone in the
Gulf of Mexico will continue to increase across the southern
plains for the next couple of days. The increasing moisture will
be interacting with the aforementioned upper trough as it starts
digging into our area early this week, maintaining periods of
showers and thunderstorms through at least Tuesday night.
Flooding will also be a hazard, with another 2-3 inches expected
in addition to todays rainfall. A cold front will begin moving
through late Thursday, ending the rain and bringing in much
unseasonably cooler air for the rest of the seven day period.

By Friday, an upper short wave will bring back chances for rain
into Saturday. However at this point, the atmosphere is expected
to remain stable enough to inhibit any thunderstorm development.
The rain chances also remain low, as sufficient moisture return is
in question.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  77  67  73 /  70  50  80  90
Hobart OK         68  75  63  71 /  80  80  90  90
Wichita Falls TX  70  80  68  74 /  70  60  80  90
Gage OK           59  72  56  61 /  80  80  80  90
Ponca City OK     67  80  68  73 /  80  50  80  90
Durant OK         70  82  70  78 /  30  30  40  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

26/09/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1048 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-082215-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1048 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue across
western Oklahoma.

.Heavy rain...
Heavy rainfall is likely through tonight, which could cause
flooding and flash flooding, particularly in western Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across parts of Oklahoma
and north Texas through Tuesday. Strong to severe storms will be
possible at times, especially during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the
primary hazards with any severe storms. Heavy rainfall associated
with the stronger storms could cause localized flooding.

After a brief break, thunderstorm chances return late this week.

.Heavy Rain...
Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is likely through Tuesday,
which could lead to flooding and flash flooding, especially of
low lying and poorly drained areas. The prolonged period of
moderate to heavy rains will also create elevated levels on
mainstem rivers.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
859 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

OKZ018-019-024-025-080230-
Kingfisher OK-Oklahoma OK-Logan OK-Canadian OK-
859 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Kingfisher...
northwestern Oklahoma...southwestern Logan and northeastern Canadian
Counties Until 930 PM CDT....

AT 857 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
near Cashion to northwest Oklahoma City just northwest of Bethany.
The storms were moving northeast at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Heavy rainfall producing areas of flooding...

LAT...LON 3605 9745 3555 9744 3545 9773 3589 9776
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 244DEG 19KT 3585 9769 3552 9767

..speg.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N ALTUS               34.72N 99.33W
10/07/2018                   JACKSON            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            9 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER HWY 283. 5.6 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL MEASURED IN 3.5 HOURS.

&&

TLINDLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
930 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

OKZ012-013-019-020-080300-
Garfield OK-Payne OK-Logan OK-Noble OK-
930 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Garfield...west
central Payne...northwestern Logan and southwestern Noble Counties
Until 1000 PM CDT....

AT 928 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northeast of
Crescent, moving northeast at 45 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Crescent, Mulhall, Orlando, Lovell and Lucien.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 173 and 184.

LAT...LON 3622 9722 3589 9754 3598 9768 3605 9767
      3631 9746
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 212DEG 38KT 3601 9755

WR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CORDELL                 35.30N 98.98W
10/07/2018                   WASHITA            OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF POLICE CAR FLOODED IN CITY STREETS.

&&

TLINDLEY