River Flood Warning 19, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The 18Z aviation discussion follows....

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread rain, some heavy, will continue over most of Oklahoma
and north Texas into the night. Some clearing is expected in
northern and far western Oklahoma, but timing is very
uncertain...most likely this afternoon or early evening just
outside the rain area. Elsewhere, low ceilings should persist at
least through midday tomorrow, along with periodically lowered
visibilities in rain. Overall, the basic trend this
evening/overnight will be a decrease in rainfall, and a
corresponding improvement in visibilities...although areas of BR
may prevent improvement overnight in some locations. A band of
heavy rain, possibly thunderstorms, is also forecast to form later
this afternoon between Vernon and Wichita Falls, Texas (extending
south from there), then move east along/south of the Red River,
affecting KSPS approximately 21Z to 01Z.

CmS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 608 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
For the 12z TAFs:

Periods of rain, occasionally heavy with visibility reductions
temporarily as low as 2 to 3 SM will occur at most TAF sites.
Gradual decrease in heavy rain potential will occur at most TAF
sites by later today. Thunderstorms are possible with occasional
lightning, but for most sites we handled this with VCTS. MVFR
ceilings should prevail through the TAF period except in northern
Oklahoma where a return to VFR is likely by late afternoon or
evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Heavy rainfall event continues to unfold with approaching cold
front, combined with phasing of northern/central plains s/wv trough
and weakening remnants of weak tropical disturbance. Greatest
influence of tropical moisture will remain confined to far southern
portions of Oklahoma and northern Texas late today through tomorrow
given delayed lower level return and advected layered precipitable
water trends. Highest QPF values are expected south of the OKC
metro, down toward Ardmore, Ada, and Durant and primarily from late
this afternoon through Saturday morning. Rainfall totals of 5 to 8
inches certainly appear possible over these areas. With heavier
precipitation ending across western parts of Oklahoma by evening, we
will move the expiration of the Flood Watch up to 00Z this evening
across the western-third or so of Oklahoma. Will keep rest of watch
going and let later shifts adjust as needed. 00Z NAM and last couple
runs of the ECM slow progression of southern wave over northern
Texas, allowing for heavy rainfall to potential last into much of
Saturday across the Red River Valley. Higher probabilities will be
maintained through the day.

In addition to the widespread rainfall, much cooler air will spread
into the region today and tonight. Below average temperatures will
be forecast through the weekend, with temperatures moderating on
Monday ahead of next frontal boundary. An evolving central U.S.
trough will be reflected at surface with passage of cold front on
Tuesday. Along with a downward trend in temperatures, rain chances
will return with this frontal boundary Tuesday into Wednesday. A
more clipper type system progd to dive into the northern plains
Wednesday into Thursday, allowing yet another front to move in late
in the week. This front has the potential to usher in the driest air
we have seen in quite some time, with dewpoints likely to fall into
the 40s over a larger area than currently forecast. With moisture
less abundant by this time, chances for showers and storms appears
lower and will keep pops at or below guidance values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  59  71  60 / 100  90  40  20
Hobart OK         73  59  73  59 / 100  50  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  77  61  70  62 / 100  90  70  30
Gage OK           71  50  75  54 /  80   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     74  55  76  58 /  90  20  10  10
Durant OK         80  67  71  64 / 100 100  90  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ018>020-023>032-
     037>048-050>052.

     Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ014>017-021-022-
     033>036.

TX...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for TXZ084>090.

     Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083.

&&

14/23/23

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221645-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1132 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Periods of rain will be heavy at times and this could cause
flooding of low-lying and poorly drained areas. The greatest
chance of flooding or flash flooding will be over the southern
half of Oklahoma and north Texas.

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms are possible today. Severe storms are not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

.Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
Heavy rain chances will continue through Saturday across southern
Oklahoma and north Texas. This could cause flooding of low-lying
and poorly drained areas.

.Thunderstorms...
A few thunderstorms are possible Saturday, mainly across southern
Oklahoma and north Texas. Low chances of storms will return
Monday and continue through next week. Severe storms are not
expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
151 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PONTOTOC                34.49N 96.63W
09/21/2018                   JOHNSTON           OK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 377 IS CLOSED FROM HIGHWAY 7 NORTH
            TO FITTSTOWN.

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
154 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DAVIS                   34.50N 97.12W
09/21/2018                   MURRAY             OK   PUBLIC

            WATER UP TO THE FOUNDATION OF SEVERAL HOMES
            IN DAVIS.

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
157 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KNOX CITY               33.42N 99.82W
09/21/2018                   KNOX               TX   911 CALL CENTER

            VEHICLE STALLED IN FLOOD WATERS IN KNOX CITY.

&&

TLINDLEY