Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
622 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread rain along with MVFR and IFR conditions expected to
continue across much of the area into the afternoon hours. Much of
the precip should push out this afternoon into the this evening
from west to east, but MVFR ceilings will hang tough until after
06Z when CSM/LAW/SPS should see ceilings dissipate and VFR
conditions return. Will also have a front that is currently in
northwest Oklahoma push southeast across the area this afternoon
and evening. This will bring a shift in surface winds from
south/southwest to the northwest.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Continuing threat of heavy rain and flooding through Tuesday
evening remains the main forecast concern. After a brief break from
rain on Wednesday and Thursday, rain chances will return going into
the weekend. Details for both of these events are below.

A deep trough continues to trudge eastward over the four corners
region around toward western Kansas. As this system makes its way
out, we'll see one last batch of rain through the day. This will
develop over western Oklahoma and push eastward through the day with
rain ending west to east this afternoon and evening.

Heavy rainfall continues to be the main concern with these showers
and storms. PWATs are hovering around 1.5 inches. With this rainfall
falling on already saturated ground (due to the extensive rainfall
we've already received over the last several days), flash flooding
will continue to be a risk. Will keep the flood watch going with no
changes.

There will also be enough instability and wind shear to support a
few strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening across south
central and central Oklahoma.

A cold front will move through late Tuesday evening and overnight,
clearing the area of moisture. We'll have a few dry days (Wednesday
and Thursday) before rain chances pick back up again. In addition,
this front (and a subsequent one on the weekend) will usher in some
cooler weather with highs in the 50s and 60s.

Moisture returns from the gulf on Thursday. This will interact with
a long wave trough and associated front to bring rain chances back
for through the weekend starting late Thursday night. In addition,
models currently show the remnants of hurricane Sergio moving up
through our area on Saturday. After the cold front moves through
Sunday, we'll see next week likely start out cool and dry.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  47  63  44 / 100  40   0   0
Hobart OK         71  45  64  45 / 100  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  74  50  68  48 / 100  10   0   0
Gage OK           59  40  60  42 / 100   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     73  47  61  41 / 100  60   0   0
Durant OK         78  56  70  49 /  90  80   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

30/14/30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
412 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-100915-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
412 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of
central and southern Oklahoma and portions of western north
Texas.

Location...
The slight risk is south and east of a line from Stillwater to
Lawton Oklahoma to Burkburnett and Holliday Texas. A marginal
risk surrounds the slight risk and is east of a line from
Alva to Elk City to Mangum Oklahoma to Quanah to Knox City Texas.

Timing...
Most likely time for severe storms will be from noon through 8pm.

Impacts...
Wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph, hail to the size of quarters and
locally heavy rainfall will be the main impacts. A tornado or two
is also possible.

Discussion...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will develop over western
Oklahoma this morning and move eastward through the day. Some of
these storms could become strong to severe during the afternoon
across central and southern Oklahoma. Storms are expected to
weaken after sunset.

.Heavy rain...
Heavy rainfall is likely through tonight, especially across the
western half of Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas. This
will likely result in flooding and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

.Thunderstorms...
Chances for thunderstorms will return Thursday night through
Sunday.

.Heavy Rain...
Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible with any showers and
storms that develop this weekend. These rains in addition to all
the rain that has fallen over the last several days will make
localized flooding possible.

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