Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
458 AM CDT Thu Oct 4 2018

.AVIATION...
Surface winds will shift around to the northeast at OKC/OUN
behind an outflow boundary through 14-15z. PNC/WWR sites are
expected for have at least MVFR ceilings for much of the day.
Showers and a few storms may linger over PNC through about 14-15Z.
SPS/LAW will have mainly VFR conditions through the period with a
southerly wind. This evening and overnight, ceilings will lower
to IFR across northern Oklahoma with areas of fog and drizzle
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 331 AM CDT Thu Oct 4 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Early this morning, a cold front/outflow boundary was moving
southward across northern Oklahoma. Although the outflow boundary
should push well into central/west central Oklahoma this morning,
the cold front by afternoon will extend from near Elk City to
Kingfisher and Stillwater/Ponca City. Post-frontal clouds will
continue to form behind the front today, which will result in
cooler temperatures for northwest Oklahoma and parts of north
central and west central Oklahoma. Widely scattered showers and a
few storms will be possible through the morning hours with better
chances across northern Oklahoma. By mid to late afternoon, other
storms may form along and near the cold front, with a few strong
storms possible.

Later this evening and overnight, the surface front is expected to
lift back to the north. This may result in some light
rain/drizzle and light fog across mainly the northern third of
Oklahoma.

Another breezy and very warm day is expected on Friday with high
temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 80s.

Another cold front will move into parts of western and northern
Oklahoma overnight Friday into Saturday. Scattered to widespread
showers and storms are expected to develop, as a shortwave trough
move across the southern and central Plains. The front is
expected to stall across southwest and central Oklahoma by
Saturday afternoon and evening.

Very strong upper flow over the West Coast late Saturday into Sunday
will result in a large trough over the western states. Several
rounds of rain and storms will likely form from Sunday into early
next week. Heavy rainfall is likely during this period which could
result in some flooding. The main trough is expected to lift
north and east by late Tuesday into Wednesday, which will
significantly decrease the chances of storms and the risk of heavy
rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  68  85  69 /  20   0   0  10
Hobart OK         88  68  86  68 /  20  10   0  50
Wichita Falls TX  90  69  87  71 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           65  58  86  55 /  40  40  20  70
Ponca City OK     68  66  86  63 /  60  20  10  60
Durant OK         88  71  85  72 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
415 AM CDT Thu Oct 4 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-050915-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
415 AM CDT Thu Oct 4 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and some thunderstorms will continue to develop and move
across portions of northern and central Oklahoma this morning. Heavy
downpours and lightning will be the main concerns with these storms.
No severe weather expected this morning.

Thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening across
portions of northern, central, and southwest Oklahoma, and western
parts of north Texas. There is a Marginal Risk of severe storms
late this afternoon and evening for areas south and west of a line
from Cheyenne and Camargo, to Weatherford and Lawton, to
Frederick Oklahoma, and to Vernon and Crowell Texas. The most
likely time for strong to severe storms will be from 4 pm to 10
pm. Hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 65 mph
will be the main concerns with any severe storms. The potential
for storms will diminish late this evening. Heavy rain and
lightning will also be concerns this afternoon and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible across at least portions of Oklahoma
and north Texas Friday night through at least the middle of next
week. Some strong to severe storms could be possible, especially the
late afternoon and evenings of Friday and Saturday when there is a
Marginal Risk. The risk area on Friday is west of a line from
Blackwell and Enid, to Weatherford and Hobart, to Altus Oklahoma and
Quanah Texas. On Saturday, the Marginal Risk is across parts of
southwest Oklahoma and all of western north Texas. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts are the main concerns with any severe storms.

.Heavy Rain...
Heavy rainfall is likely through at least the middle of next week,
which could lead to flooding, especially of low lying and poorly
drained areas. The prolonged period of moderate to heavy rains will
likely also create elevated levels on mainstem rivers.

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