Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
312 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The story continues to be widespread rainfall into the weekend,
including a potential for flooding. Only significant change from
previous forecast was to decrease POPs Tuesday night.

Current radar shows an area of showers in central and north
central Oklahoma. This activity is expected to continue through
the day today, spreading westward a bit during the afternoon. Most
of the CAMs decrease this convective activity after sunset,
giving us a relatively quiet night. Upper level support is not as
strong on Wednesday, but there is enough support combined with
the abundant moisture that the CAMs show some scattered showers
and storms. The arrival of a weak front will focus most of this
activity in the afternoon.

The highest PWATs (just above 2 inches) run along a north-south axis
through central Oklahoma. Flooding will be the primary concern
over the next few days. There will be enough instability to
support some thunder, but no severe weather is expected.

Thursday and Friday, the pattern begins to shift from the current
southwest flow regime to a more zonal regime. With this, the focus
for precipitation and the highest PWATs (still near 2 inches) will
shift toward northwest Oklahoma.

For Friday and Saturday, we will be watching the track of tropical
storm Gordon closely to assess the potential for rainfall in our
eastern counties. Latest guidance has shifted the track a bit
further east.

Finally, going into the weekend, a shortwave is forecast to move
through on Saturday clearing out a lot of the atmospheric moisture.
Rain chances won't end altogether, but they certainly go down for
early next week.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  70  84  70 /  70  30  60  50
Hobart OK         79  70  87  69 /  60  30  50  50
Wichita Falls TX  80  72  87  72 /  60  30  50  50
Gage OK           82  68  84  65 /  40  30  50  50
Ponca City OK     79  71  84  69 /  70  30  60  50
Durant OK         84  71  89  71 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

30/14

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1055 PM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-050400-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1055 PM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Overnight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move
across the area overnight. Locally heavy rainfall and minor
flooding may occur with some of the storms, especially across
central Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue across Oklahoma and
western north Texas through Sunday. Areas of heavy rainfall and
flooding will be possible. The potential for severe storms will
remain low.

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