Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
710 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.AVIATION...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
to become more numerous this evening and overnight. The
stronger storms will be capable of lowering visibility
to less than 1 mile and produce wind gusts in excess of
45-50 knots. Perhaps the more significant storms will
impact the terminal sites around LAW and SPS.
By 12Z most of the showers and storms should be east and
south of most of the terminal sites.  A cold front across
northwestern Oklahoma, will move slowly south tonight before
stalling on Sunday. During the day Sunday, mainly VFR conditions
are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe thunderstorms have formed over the past
hour, mainly across north central and southwest Oklahoma. An
outflow boundary that lifted northward from central Oklahoma
earlier this morning, has been augmented by afternoon convection.

Overall, additional strong to severe storms will continue to
form generally near and ahead of a cold front that extends from
the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma. Several HRRR runs,
predict storms will eventually evolve into a thunderstorm complex
or two. One may develop from western north Texas and southwest
Oklahoma and move into central/north central Oklahoma, while
another may evolve from the Texas Panhandle and impact
southwestern Oklahoma and north Texas. If this occurs, the over
hazard will likely be strong damaging winds with some hail. In the
meantime, large hail and strong outflow winds are expected.
Depending on storm evolution tonight through Sunday morning,
little thunderstorm development may occur Sunday afternoon and
evening.

Late Sunday into Monday, a trough/low is expected to move across
southern parts of the West Coast. Weak height rises are expected
over the southern plains with rather weak southwest flow,
especially the eastern half of Oklahoma. Although showers and
thunderstorms will be possible they will be rather slow moving and
mainly not severe.

As the trough lift northeast Tuesday into Wednesday, additional height
rises will occur and the overall flow across Oklahoma and north
Texas will be very weak for late May. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will be rather low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  77  63  82 /  90  30  20  30
Hobart OK         62  76  62  83 /  80  30  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  67  79  66  84 /  80  50  20  30
Gage OK           54  74  58  82 /  60  20  20  20
Ponca City OK     61  74  59  82 /  80  20  10  30
Durant OK         69  83  67  86 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
841 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-210145-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
841 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western
north Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this evening
across parts Oklahoma and western north Texas.

.Location...
The Slight Risk area is east of a line from Freedom to Woodward to
Elk City to Mangum Oklahoma to Quanah Texas, and west of a line
from Seminole to Ardmore to Marietta Oklahoma. There is a Marginal
Risk of severe thunderstorms across the remaining area.

.Timing...
Severe storms will be possible through around 2 AM.

.Impacts...
Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and hail up to the size of golf
balls will be the main hazards.

Some of the storms today will produce locally heavy rainfall which
may result in some flooding.

.Discussion...
Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible over Oklahoma and
north Texas this evening and into the early morning hours Sunday
morning. Thunderstorms across western sections of north Texas and
southwest Oklahoma may evolve into a complex of storms that will
be capable of producing damaging winds and hail. Other scattered
thunderstorms will be possible this evening across the area,
especially across the slight risk area. The chance of severe
storms will decrease in the early morning hours as atmospheric
instability decreases.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will continue Sunday through Friday across
parts of Oklahoma and north Texas. A few storms through this time
frame may be strong to severe.

.Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in a short period of time
from slowly moving thunderstorms may cause flash flooding in a
few locations across Oklahoma and north Texas Sunday through
Friday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

OKZ027-038-039-044-045-200500-
Grady OK-Cotton OK-Stephens OK-Comanche OK-Jefferson OK-
1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southwestern Grady...northeastern
Cotton...Stephens...east central Comanche and northwestern Jefferson
Counties Until midnight CDT...

AT 1127 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
5 miles east of Sterling to 5 miles southeast of Duncan to 5 miles
southwest of Waurika, moving east at 20 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to one-half inch diameter...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Duncan, Marlow, Waurika, Comanche, Rush Springs, Bray, Sterling,
Velma, Hastings, Loco, Addington, Waurika Lake, Agawam, Corum,
Central High, Empire City and Acme.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3413 9809 3415 9811 3413 9815 3414 9819
      3444 9814 3464 9831 3493 9793 3447 9762
      3408 9772
TIME...MOT...LOC 0427Z 263DEG 18KT 3473 9807 3445 9789 3412 9807

MAHALE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Norman OK
1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

OKZ010-200500-
Woodward OK-
1130 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR southeastern Woodward County
Until midnight CDT...

AT 1129 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were along a line extending from
5 miles south of Alabaster Caverns State Park to near Mooreland to
near Sharon, moving east at 5 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 MPH...
Minor flooding in areas of poor drainage...

Locations impacted include...
Mooreland, Sharon, Mutual and Quinlan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3668 9904 3666 9902 3665 9902 3660 9898
      3660 9896 3644 9896 3639 9898 3617 9922
      3622 9949 3636 9931 3647 9926 3660 9925
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 268DEG 6KT 3663 9912 3643 9919 3628 9933

BRB