Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
216 AM EDT Wed May 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A westward extension of the Bermuda High sets up into the
Southeastern States through Thursday night. A frontal boundary
slowly approaches on Friday, stalling across the area overnight
into Saturday. High pressure briefly returns for Sunday before
another frontal boundary moves through Sunday night, followed by
high pressure building down from the north through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Made minor adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints to better
match current trends, otherwise the forecast remains on track.

Deep layered ridging builds over the area tonight. The result
will be dry conditions and decreasing cloud cover.

Lows tonight will be around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The region remains on the northern periphery of a northwestern
extension of the subtropical ridge Wednesday and Wednesday
night. The result will be above normal temperatures, with
minimal cloud cover and no precipitation.

Highs on Wednesday should run 15-20 degrees above normal.
temperatures will mainly range from around 80 to the mid 80s.
Some readings in the upper 80s possible over interior portions
of NYC and urban portions of NE NJ. The main exception however,
will be over coastal SE CT, the Twin Forks of Long Island and
near the immediate Atlantic/Great South Bay Coast of Long Island
where temperatures should generally be in the 70s. With low
dewpoints over the area though, heat indices will run below the
air temperatures over the region.

Lows Wednesday night should be around 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A summer-like pattern will prevail by mid-late week with strong
upper ridging and an attendant subtropical high centered off the
Southeast coast, leading to southwest flow and strong warm advection
across the area. Temperatures on Thursday will be close to 20
degrees above climatological normals across the interior, while
south-southwest flow off cool ocean temperatures will keep coastal
locations closer to 10-15 degrees above normal. The chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms remains somewhat uncertain at
this time. The frontal boundary will be well to the north, and with
a series a series of short waves passing along the northern
periphery of the high, there will be a chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms as west-northwest flow allows them to propagate
towards our area, mainly across northern NJ, the lower Hudson Valley
and portions of Connecticut later in the day. Although a thermal
surface trough should develop across NJ into western CT, subsidence
due to the high may hinder any development. If any storms can
develop from either boundary, modest deep layer flow and a
relatively dry sub-cloud layer will be supportive of a few strong
wind gusts in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

The frontal boundary passes to the north of the area overnight,
continuing a chance of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder in
warm advection. Friday once again will feature well above normal
temperatures, though a few degrees cooler than Thursday across
coastal areas with a more southerly flow. There will be a chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms with the potential for strong
wind gusts again as a prefrontal trough develops, and again with the
frontal passage in the evening.

The front then stalls across the area into Saturday, with
temperatures remaining a few degrees above climatological normals.
At least isolated showers may be possible early in the day,
otherwise mid-high level cloud cover will be prevalent with the sub-
tropical jet over the area.

Temperatures then return to more seasonable values Sunday into
Monday as brief high pressure builds across the area again.
Maintained the potential for isolated showers Sunday night into
Monday with a cold front expected to move through, though
instability will be weak at best.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains nearly stationary off the southeast coast
today, and then begins to give way to an approaching frontal
system to the NW on Thursday. This will keep the area in a SW
flow during the period.

VFR.

WSW/SW winds increase later this morning with gusts to 20 kt
likely developing . Gusts 25-30 kt likely in the afternoon.
Afternoon S-SSW seabreeze development likely for JFK, KBDR,
KGON, and KISP.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday Night...VFR. SW winds 10 kt or less.
.Thursday-Friday...Mainly VFR. Late afternoon and evening
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. SW
G25-30KT possible for KLGA/KEWR/KTEB in afternoons.
.Saturday...VFR.
.Sunday...CHC MVFR in -shra.

&&

.MARINE...
A moderate pressure gradient over the waters will limit winds
to 20 kt or less over the coastal ocean waters and to 15 kt or
less over the non-ocean waters around Long Island through
Wednesday night. Seas should be 4 ft or less on the coastal
ocean waters and 2 ft or less on the non-ocean waters through
Wednesday night as well.

SCA level conditions will become increasingly likely into late week
as the pressure gradient strengthens across the area, leading to
gusts near or above 25 kt on all waters by Thursday afternoon. Winds
will gust once again Friday afternoon-evening. Ocean seas are
expected to build rapidly in response, and although flow will weaken
on Saturday, seas will be slower to subside, with SCA conditions
persisting into the evening. Thereafter, brief high pressure builds
in followed by a weak frontal passage, allowing conditions to remain
tranquil for Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tomorrow will be yet another dry day, with minimum relative
humidities down around 30 percent, except down into the mid 20
percent range over NE NJ and parts of NYC. Wind gusts should run
in the 20 to 25 mph range on Wednesday. Given the marginal case
for both relative humidity and winds, plus some uncertainty in
both, have refrained from issuing any Fire Weather headlines at
this time. However, there is some potential that at least a
Special Weather Statement will be needed over NE NJ/NYC and
possibly the Lower Hudson Valley and Interior CT on Wednesday
to address the possibility for enhanced risk of the spread of
any brush fires.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
It should be dry through Wednesday night.

No significant hydrologic impacts are anticipated into early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Thursday
May 3, 2018 along with the 24 hour forecast low prior to Midnight.

Record Max Minimum Temperature   24 Hour Forecast Low Prior to Midnight
------------------------------   --------------------------------------
Central Park........68 (2001)    69
LaGuardia...........67 (2010)    69
Kennedy.............61 (2010)    65
Islip...............60 (2010)    61
Newark..............69 (2010)    68
Bridgeport..........59 (2010)    63

The following are record maximum minimum temperatures for Friday
May 4, 2018 along with the forecast minimum temperature.

Record Max Minimum Temperature   24 Hour Forecast Low Prior to Midnight
------------------------------   --------------------------------------
Central Park........71 (2001)    68
LaGuardia...........72 (2001)    68
Kennedy.............62 (2001)    64
Islip...............59 (2001)    61
Newark..............67 (2001)    68
Bridgeport..........59 (2001)    63

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Maloit
NEAR TERM...FEB/JMC/Maloit
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...MD
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...MD/Maloit
FIRE WEATHER...//
HYDROLOGY...MD/Maloit
CLIMATE...//
EQUIPMENT...//