Alert archive / New York / High Wind Watches in 2018

High Wind Watch 1, NWS New York, NY

February 28, 20184 counties in Connecticut; 10 counties in New York; 5 counties in New Jersey

NWS New York, NY issued this high wind watch at Feb 28, 2018, 3:30 PM EST for 4 counties in Connecticut; 10 counties in New York; 5 counties in New Jersey. It took effect at Mar 2, 2018, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 28, 2018, 3:30 PM EST (20:30 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 2, 2018, 7:00 AM EST
Expired
Mar 1, 2018, 3:17 PM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS New York, NY

Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-02-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-02-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 220 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1775 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
220 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
250 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

653 
WWUS71 KOKX 282030
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
330 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-010430-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1100Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
330 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a High Wind
Watch, which is in effect from Friday morning through late Friday
night.

* WINDS...North 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Friday and Friday night, with the strongest winds from
  Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph...or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

&&

$$

Maloit
4 follow-up statements
569 
WWUS71 KOKX 010333
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-011145-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.A.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1100Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern New London-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
1033 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...North 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Friday and Friday night, with the strongest winds 
  from Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph...or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

&&

$$
222 
WWUS71 KOKX 010858
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
358 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

CTZ012-NYZ079-081-011700-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1100Z/
Southern New London-Northeastern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
358 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has upgraded the High Wind 
Watch to a High Wind Warning, which is in effect from 7 AM Friday
to 6 AM EST Saturday.

* WINDS...North 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* TIMING...Strongest winds from Friday afternoon through Friday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will be capable of downing trees and
  power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Limited 
  visibilities will make travel difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

CTZ008-011700-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HW.W.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1100Z/
Northern New London-
358 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from 7 AM Friday to 6 AM EST
Saturday.

* WINDS...North 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* TIMING...Strongest winds from Friday afternoon through Friday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will be capable of downing trees and
  power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Limited 
  visibilities will make travel difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

CTZ005>007-NJZ004-103>105-107-NYZ068>070-011700-
/O.EXA.KOKX.HW.A.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1100Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Western Union-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
358 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a High Wind
Watch, which is in effect from Friday morning through late Friday
night.

* WINDS...North 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Strongest winds from Friday afternoon through Friday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will be capable of downing trees and
  power lines. Power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Limited 
  visibilities will make travel difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph...or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

&&

$$

CTZ009>011-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-011700-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.A.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1100Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Hudson-
Eastern Essex-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
358 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...North 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Strongest winds from Friday afternoon through Friday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will be capable of downing trees and
  power lines. Power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Limited 
  visibilities will make travel difficult.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph...or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

&&

$$

JMC
015 
WWUS71 KOKX 011550
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1050 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-020000-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.W.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1100Z/
Northern New London-Southern New London-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-
1050 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...North 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* TIMING...Strongest winds from Friday afternoon through Friday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will be capable of downing trees and 
  power lines. Power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Limited 
  visibilities will make travel difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

CTZ005>007-009>011-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-078-080-176>179-
020000-
/O.CON.KOKX.HW.A.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1100Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-
Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
1050 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...North 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Strongest winds from Friday afternoon through Friday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will be capable of downing trees and 
  power lines. Power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Limited 
  visibilities will make travel difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph...or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

&&

$$
123 
WWUS71 KOKX 012017
NPWOKX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
317 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

CTZ005-NYZ068-012130-
/O.CAN.KOKX.HW.A.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1100Z/
Northern Fairfield-Putnam-
317 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Upton has cancelled the High Wind
Watch.

$$

CTZ009>011-NYZ071>075-078-080-176>179-021000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1100Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.HW.W.0001.180302T1600Z-180303T1100Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Southwestern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
317 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EST
Saturday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...North 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Strongest winds from Friday afternoon through Friday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Limited 
  visibilities will make travel difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-021000-
/O.EXT.KOKX.HW.W.0001.180302T1600Z-180303T1100Z/
Northern New London-Southern New London-Northeastern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-
317 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...North 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Strongest winds from Friday afternoon through Friday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Limited 
  visibilities will make travel difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

CTZ006-007-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ069-070-021000-
/O.UPG.KOKX.HW.A.0001.180302T1200Z-180303T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0001.180302T1600Z-180303T1100Z/
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-
Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Western Union-Eastern Union-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
317 PM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Wind Advisory,
which is in effect from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday. The
High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...North 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* TIMING...Strongest winds from Friday afternoon through Friday 
  night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Limited 
  visibilities will make travel difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph,
or gusts of 46 to 57 mph, are expected or occurring. Winds this
strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles, in open areas, and on elevated roads and bridges. Use
extra caution.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind watch went out at Feb 28, 12:51 PM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 12:51 PM EST, 2 hours 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1251 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves further offshore this afternoon. Weak low
pressure passes north of the region tonight. A large complex
frontal system will approach the area on Thursday. Deep low
pressure will impact the area for the end of the week, then
slowly exit over the weekend. Another system may impact the
region next Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track heading into the afternoon. Have adjust sky
cover down a bit for the first part of the afternoon with just
some patches of cirrus.

High pressure moves further offshore today with a nearly zonal
flow in the mid levels. Increasing SW flow will advect warmer
air into the region with temperatures a few degrees warmer than
Tuesday. Highs will reach the middle and upper 50s for most
locations.

Clouds should begin to increase late ahead of approaching upper
shortwave.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tonight, core of subtropical jet starts to move into the region,
originating from Pacific and the South Central US. In the mid
levels a shortwave passes north of the region. This continues
to move in Thursday, ahead of a sharp mid to upper level
shortwave.

Weak surface low pressure passes north of the region tonight
sending a cold front towards the area. The front will likely
stall to our north, but cannot rule out a few showers. Will
continue with slight chance PoPs. Mainly dry conditions are
expected into early Thursday. The winds eventually become
easterly Thursday and increase in strength during the day when
stronger low pressure approaches from the south and west.

A larger more widespread increasing chance of rain can be expected
Thursday afternoon. The cold front near the region will become
stationary and part of a frontal system approaching from the west.
Another area of low pressure will begin developing east of the
Delmarva as well.

Regarding temperatures, went more mild for lows tonight. Used NAM12
in combination with MAV/MET/ECS MOS to get a relatively warmer
solution, with lows ranging from upper 30s to mid 40s. On average,
expecting temperatures a few degrees cooler Thursday compared to the
previous day due to the extra clouds and increasing chances of rain
in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main focus is on the storm Thu ngt into Sat.

Most of the 00z data clustered the deepening low basically over and
along the latitude of Long Island. If this were to verify, impacts,
particularly wind, coastal flooding and snow, would be minimized, at
least until the low drifted s Fri ngt. By that time, the occluded
low would, while still being a wind machine, lose the strong
advection and hvy pcpn rates. However, the ECMWF has been
consistently s, and the 00z run was no exception. Although the
overall trend of the model was nwd, it did keep the low s of
Long Island. As a result, the fcst is based on a track close to
the consistent ECMWF, with room for nwd adjustment if the
overall model trend continues.

Most of the action with the sys will be n of the low, where strong
ely component flow will produce high winds. In fact, GFS boundary
layer vectors are 55kt, which tend to be a conservative proxy for
sfc wind gusts. The grids have been populated with high wind wrng
data for ern LI.

For snow, dynamic cooling will be needed, and it looks like the nwrn
interior, and in particular the higher elevations, will run the
greatest risk for wrng lvl snow. It may be difficult to accumulate
much if anything across the rest of the area with a warmer boundary
layer, and with the heaviest pcpn occurring during the day. Along
the coasts it could be predominately rain mixing with or changing to
snow at times during the heaviest activity, then back to rain, with
no accumulation really occurring.

As the low drifts swd and out to sea on Sat, remaining windy with a
period of lgt pcpn likely. With large occluded systems such as this,
the models tend to underdo the amount of moisture wrapped up, so
fcst pops are higher than the model blend.

Sunny, brisk and seasonable on Sun, with less wind on Mon. Another
sys may then approach from the w. The GFS is faster than the ECMWF,
so pops are low with increasing clouds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak low pressure moves along the US and Canadian border, east
of Lake Ontario, this afternoon into this evening, then through
northern New England tonight as a weakening cold front passes
through the terminals. Deepening low pressure begins to approach
from the southwest midday Thursday.

VFR.

S/SW wind around 10 kt. An occasional gust 15 to 20 kt possible
in the NYC metro area.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday afternoon...VFR with lowering ceilings late, possibly
becoming MVFR as light rain develops.
.Thursday night...MVFR to IFR with light to moderate rain.
NE gusts 20-30 kt developing late, gusts up to 35 kt possible
east of the NYC terminals. Potential LLWS.
.Friday...Rain with MVFR/IFR. Chance wintry mix for KSWF. NE-N
winds 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt, possibly as highs as 50 kt
KGON. LLWS.
.Saturday...VFR. N/NW 20-30kt with gusts 30-40kt.
.Sunday-Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Aside from some marginal SCA conditions due to wind gusts
occasionally reaching 25 kt on the ocean today, expecting sub-
SCA conditions on all waters today through Thursday. SCA level
conditions become more probable Thursday night with increasing
NE flow.

Deep low pres will bring gale to storm force winds Fri into early
Sat. At least small craft cond will linger thru Sun, and seas will
likely linger abv 5 ft on the ocean thru the beginning of next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Mainly dry conditions are expected through Thursday morning.

1-2 inches of rain/liquid equivalent are forecast with the
storm for the end of the week. Minor flooding will be possible
during periods of heavy rainfall rates.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A complex low pressure system will affect the region Thu into
Saturday (possibly Sunday), with increasing potential for a period
of Gale to Storm force E-NE-N winds.

With only around 1-1 1/2 ft surge needed for minor flooding and 2 to
2 1/2 ft for moderate flooding during the high tide cycles Friday
and Saturday, there is potential for several tidal cycles of minor to
moderate coastal flooding and dune erosion. It is not out of the
question that this threat continues into Sunday.

Since this is still a Day 3-4 forecast, predictability is moderate
on track and intensity of this storm, and therefore the associated
magnitude of coastal flooding. Stevens ensemble surge guidance has
been relied on heavily, with still considerable spread in location
and duration of strongest winds between models. Forecast has been
weighted slightly towards the higher end of forecast ranges.

Minor flood impacts could start as early as Thursday Night's high
tidal cycle. A coastal flood watch has been issued for the southern
and eastern bays of LI, Jamaica Bay and Atlantic Ocean beachfront,
with moderate confidence in several tidal cycles of moderate coastal
impacts Fri thru Sat. There is a low probability of isolated major
coastal flooding during this time. NOTE: For those with concerns
along the bays areas, if moderate water levels are exceeded for
several tidal cycles, flooding may linger well after high tides as
well.

In addition, the USGS coastal hazard viewer is depicting potential
for a prolonged threat for areas of dune erosion and localized
washovers Sat thru Mon.

At this point, there is too much model spread to provide exact water
level forecasts with high confidence. Surge guidance is targeting
Saturday's high tides as the when water levels could peak out, which
makes sense based on combined EKMAN effects and low pressure sink se
of the region and put the region in a more favorable NE fetch.

Confidence and clarity on local coastal impact details should
increase over the next 24 hrs, so continue to monitor subsequent
forecasts for the latest.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday
     night for NYZ079>081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JM/DS
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...19
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 28, 6:01 AM EST, 9 hours 29 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
601 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

CTZ009>011-NJZ006-NYZ071>075-078-176-177-011100-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Hudson-
Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
601 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Several tidal cycles of minor to locally moderate coastal flooding
are likely from late Thursday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ080-178-179-011100-
Southwestern Suffolk-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
601 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ008-011100-
Northern New London-
601 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Damaging winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to around 60 mph are
possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ079-081-011100-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
601 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Watch.

In addition to the coastal flooding threat, damaging winds of 30 to
40 mph with gusts to around 60 mph are possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-340-345-350-353-355-011100-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
601 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Storm force winds are possible Friday. Gale force winds are possible
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NJZ002-NYZ067-068-011100-
Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
601 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

There is a low probability for 6 inches or more of snow Friday,
mainly across the higher elevations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ338-011100-
New York Harbor-
601 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Gale force winds are likely on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>007-NJZ004-103>108-NYZ069-070-011100-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
601 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet
National Weather Service warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ012-011100-
Southern New London-
601 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Several tidal cycles of minor to locally moderate coastal flooding
are likely from late Thursday into Saturday.

In addition to the coastal flooding threat, damaging winds of 30 to
40 mph with gusts to around 60 mph are possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

JMC

The office that day

Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 3:42 PM ESTFlood WatchOKXGreater Bridgeport Planning Region, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region48 hr
Feb 28, 4:38 AM ESTCoastal Flood WatchOKXNassau, Queens, Suffolk40 hr
Feb 28, 3:34 PM ESTStorm WatchOKX24 hr

Nearby

High Wind Watches in New York, 2018High Wind Watches in New Jersey, 2018High Wind Watches in Connecticut, 2018Every high wind watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.