Heat Advisory 7, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
147 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough moves across the area through tonight. Bermuda
high pressure will otherwise remain in place across the Western
Atlantic into early next week. A cold front approaches for the
middle of next week, slowly making its way across the region
Wednesday night into Thursday. The front may linger just
offshore during the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Short wave trough observed on water vapor imagery is, as of 130
pm, moving into western CT and NYC, while the mesolow that has
been leading to heavy rainfall is moving east of eastern CT and
Long Island. Until the short wave fully moves through, isolated
showers capable of heavy downpours will be possible. Overall
though, the flash flooding threat has ended, therefore the
watch has been cancelled for remaining areas.

Temperatures initially will stay in the upper 70s due to precip
and clouds, but should see enough clearing for temperatures to
get into the middle 80s from NYC on west. Further east,
temperatures may only reach the low 80s.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at the
Atlantic ocean beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The surface trough moves offshore tonight with Bermuda high pressure
building back over the area for Sunday. There will not be much
change to the air mass with dew points only lowering into the upper
60s and low 70s on Sunday. Middle and upper level ridging builds
over the area Sunday with 850 mb temperatures approaching 18C.

High temperatures in urban NE NJ and NYC will reach the lower 90s
with upper 80s expected elsewhere. Heat indices in the afternoon
should end up around 95. If dew points do not lower into the upper
60s to near 70, then the heat index could be a bit higher. Sunday
looks marginal and with uncertainty on how much the dew points mix
out, have elected to hold off a heat advisory for NE NJ and NYC at
this time.

There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the
Atlantic ocean beaches on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Bermuda high returns remains in control on Monday with upper
ridging overhead. The ridge moves offshore Monday night into
Tuesday with the approach of the next shortwave trough. This
trough may then linger across the northeast for the remainder of
the week.

Highs on Monday will be a few degrees higher than on Sunday
which should push heat indices to around 95-97. Highs on Tuesday
may end up in the upper 80s to near 90 with heat indices
similar to Monday due to higher dew points in the low 70s.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday through the rest
of the forecast going through Friday. Bermuda high pressure will
gradually weaken and give way to an approaching trough of low
pressure from the west. This will have an associated cold front that
will slowly approach. The front slowly moves across Wednesday
night into Thursday. The chances of showers and thunderstorms
remain through Thursday.

Not expecting any day to be a washout, just periodic showers and
thunderstorms. The extra clouds and rain will make for cooler
daytime highs which are forecast to be more in the mid 80s for mid
to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak low pressure center east of the NYC terminals continues
to head farther east.

VFR. Winds NW-W at around 10kt or less. Low-moderate chance of
sea breeze shifting winds SW-S at KJFK after 21-22z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday PM through Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...Chance of aftn showers/thunderstorms with MVFR or
lower conditions NW of the NYC metros.
.Tuesday night thru Wednesday night...Chance of
showers/thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conds.
.Thursday...CHC am showers with MVFR of lower conds, then VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA was posted for ocean waters through today. Gusts to 25 kt
will be possible along with a brief increase in seas to around 5
ft. Otherwise, sub- SCA conditions are expected across the
waters through the remainder of the weekend. With a weak
pressure gradient in place, conditions stay below SCA minimal
criteria through the middle of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The flash flood watch has been cancelled. Although isolated
showers with localized heavy downpours will be possible this
afternoon, the threat for flooding rains has ended.

Showers or thunderstorms are possible during the middle to late week
and will be capable of producing heavy downpours that could cause
localized flooding.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JM/DS
NEAR TERM...MD/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JM/DS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM/DS
HYDROLOGY...JM/DS
EQUIPMENT...

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1053 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SCOTCH PLAINS           40.63N  74.37W
08/04/2018                   UNION              NJ   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLOODING CLOSING ALL LANES ON US ROUTE 22 WESTBOUND
            WEST OF COUNTY ROUTE 655 AT BONNIE BURN ROAD AND PARK
            AVENUE

&&

JE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1136 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SUMMIT                  40.71N  74.37W
08/04/2018                   UNION              NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BOTH LANES CLOSED ON DIVISION AVENUE DUE TO FLOODING

&&

JE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1153 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MILLBURN                40.74N  74.32W
08/04/2018                   ESSEX              NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OLD SHORT HILLS ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

JE

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