Gale Watch 23, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
144 AM EDT Thu Oct 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds into the area through the end of the
week. A coastal will then impact the area over the weekend.
Another low pressure system may affect the area Monday, followed
by high pressure building in Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Quiet and unseasonably cool through the end of the week as the
departing upper trough lifts northeast and heights build aloft.
Surface high pressure around the Great Lakes region builds
slowly east overnight, while deepening low pressure lifts north
from the Gulf of Maine into the Canadian Maritimes.

Northwest winds persist, lightening some overnight, with
occasional gusts up to 20 mph near the coast.

Lows will generally be in the 30s, with some lower 40s for the
NYC metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds east on Thursday, then across the area
Thursday night and offshore on Friday.

Gusty Northwest winds up to 25 mph will continue Thursday,
strongest over eastern portions of CT and Long Island. Winds
diminish Thursday night with the high building overhead and
then become light southerly on Friday.

As mid latitude shortwave trough over the Mississippi Valley
interacts with Pac energy along the Gulf Coast, coastal low
tracks NE into the Mid Atlantic region by Friday evening.
Clouds will increase ahead of the system on Friday with dry
conditions to hold on.

Highs and lows Thursday into Friday will remain 5 to 10 degrees
below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with a deepening upper level trough
over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley's Fri night and Sat which
gradually broadens over the eastern US through the remainder of
the weekend. The trough then slowly shifts off the east coast
early next week.

The remnants of Willa will track across the Gulf Coast states
eventually consolidating with the energy from the digging upper
trough. The primary area of low pres becomes established near
the Mid Atlantic coast Fri night and continues to track NNE,
passing over/near the Tri-State area late Sat/Sat night. Rain
is expected to overspread the area from SW to NE Fri eve and
continue through the day Sat before tapering off Sat night as
the low departs. Models are indicating some weak instability
over eastern portions of the forecast area on Sat, but have not
included thunder just yet.

The pressure gradient will tighten between departing high pres
and the approaching low Fri night with winds of 25-35G35-45mph
possible at the coast late Fri night into Sat, slightly weaker
inland. Winds will gradually diminish late Sat aftn and Sat
night. The other potential hazard is coastal flooding. Please
see the coastal flooding section below for additional
information.

Pcpn will taper off Sat night to light rain and/or drizzle as
the low traverses the local area and departs.

Models somewhat diverge with timing of the next system early
next week but the signal is there for a weaker coastal low to
pass S and E of Long Island Mon night into Tue. Additional
rainfall and gusty winds will accompany this.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR through the forecast period.

High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley builds
slowly east through Thursday.

Winds remain NW, at or just to the right of 310 true at 10 to 15
kt, diminishing to around 10 kt late. Then the winds increase
Thursday to 10 to 15 KT with gusts to around 20 KT. The wind
direction may average around 310 true. Gusts may end 22Z to 00Z,
with sustained winds slowly diminishing late in the forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
*** HIGH IMPACT COASTAL STORM LIKELY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
***
.Thursday night-Friday...VFR.
.Friday night-Saturday...Rain developing after midnight. IFR conds
and NE winds G30-40KT likely late Fri night into much of daytime
Sat.
.Saturday night...Rain likely, with IFR conds possible. NE winds G20-
25KT mainly before midnight.
.Sunday-Monday...Chance of rain showers with MVFR conds possible at
times.

&&

.MARINE...
A gusty NW flow will continue to produce SCA conditions into
the night, mainly for the ocean waters, and eastern portions of
the sound and bays. There is the potential that marginal SCA
gusts could linger into ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet
Thursday into Thursday evening. High pressure then builds across
the waters Thursday night into Friday.

Winds will rapidly increase Fri night as the pres gradient
tightens between departing high pres and an approaching low.
Gale force winds look likely late Fri night and Sat, and could
approach storm force on the ocean. Gales should subside to SCA
late Sat/Sat eve falling below SCA levels on all waters by Sun
morning. Seas on the ocean will likely remain above SCA levels
through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Up to an inch and a half of rainfall is possible late Friday night
through the upcoming weekend as a coastal storm moves northeast
along the coast. Higher totals may be forecast as the event draws
closer, but as of right now any hydrological impacts do not appear
to be significant.

A widespread 1 to 2" of rain is expected through Sat. Antecedent
dry conditions and long duration of the rainfall is not expected
to result in any hydrologic concerns.

Additional light amounts are expected Sat night, followed by
another rain event late Mon into Tue. There is uncertainty with
timing and amounts of this event however, amounts do not appear
to be high enough to cause any issues at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will be decreasing over the next couple of
days following today's full moon. However, moderate to strong NE
winds associated with a passing Nor'easter this weekend will
bring the potential for coastal flooding. At this time,
widespread minor to locally moderate thresholds are expected to
be met, however there is significant spread in the guidance on
how bad the impacts will be. There is definitely the potential
for widespread moderate coastal flooding thresholds to be met on
Sat, especially during the morning tide cycle which is the
higher cycle of the two.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ330-340-350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...24/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/PW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...24/DW/PW
HYDROLOGY...24/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

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