Gale Watch 18, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
127 AM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain under the influence of high pressure to the
north and a stationary front to the south through Sunday. The front
then begins to move northward as a warm front Sunday night,
lifting north of the area Monday night. An approaching cold
front will then stall or dissipate across the area Tuesday into
Wednesday. High pressure builds to the north of the area for the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Just a few minor adjustments to account for the bulk of the
light rain moving off to the east. Therefore conditions will
dry out from NW to SE the next couple of hours. Additionally,
slight adjustments were made over the next 6 hours with respect
to wind. HRRR and GLAMP blend was used here as this guidance
was lining up better with current conditions.

With the stationary front remaining south of the area and an upper
trough slowly approaching from the west, an overrunning pattern
remains over the area with occasional light showers expected through
the night, particularly across coastal areas. Precipitation chances
may briefly decrease across the Lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut
this evening as high pressure builds to the north, advecting drier
air southward. However, confidence is low in this scenario, as
precipitation has continued to redevelop through much of the day.

Otherwise, temperatures will remain below climatological normals
through the night, despite overcast skies, as cooler Canadian air is
advected into the area and onshore flow persists.

The high risk of rip currents on the ocean beaches continues into
tonight, with waves and swell increasing well ahead of tropical
cyclone Florence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Winds strengthen through the day on Sunday as the stationary front
to the south begins to slowly move northward, strengthening the
pressure gradient between the high pressure to the north. Cloudy
conditions are expected to persist, especially with opaque cirrus
ahead of the remnants of tropical cyclone Gordon to the west.
Similar to Saturday, an overrunning pattern will lead to the chance
for off and on showers through the day, gradually increasing into
the night.

Have delayed the onset of likely precipitation, as more recent
deterministic and high resolution models suggest an initial struggle
to saturate drier low levels, with the Canadian high pressure
remaining to the north. As the upper trough nears and attendant
front moves closer to the area, chances of showers will increase
overnight and towards day break, with moderate to heavy rainfall
possible at times, particularly to the north and west of the city.

The high risk of rip currents on ocean beaches continues into Sunday
and Sunday night. A high surf advisory is now in effect for
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A confluent flow between the southern and northern branches of
the polar jet will retreat to the northeast along with strong
surface high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. The cool, dry
air over New England and a southern branch low over the Great
Lakes will result in deep-layered warm advection across the region
Monday with a moderate rainfall event. This will be more of a
stratiform rain, but weak elevated instability may allow for an
isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorm.

A warm front works north of the area Monday night with the return
of a warm, muggy airmass as winds become southerly. Precipitation
will become more scattered and convective in nature Monday
night through Wednesday. A weakening cold front will then move
into the area Tuesday afternoon. There is some uncertainty as to
whether or not the boundary passes just east of the area, or
dissipates across the region through midweek. The associated
southern branch shortwave trough dampens as it lifts northeast of
the region and the western Atlantic ridge expands westward into
the Ohio Valley. This in turn will likely suppress convection for
the second half of the week with high pressure building to the
north of the region. Easterly flow will likely develop and bridge
across whatever is left of the front.

The aforementioned upper level ridge will also become a big
player in the future track of Tropical Cyclone Florence. Global
models do differ in the magnitude of the western Atlantic ridge
with a potential weakness developing late next week near the
eastern seaboard. The latest official forecast from the National
Hurricane Center takes the system westward toward the southeast
and Mid Atlantic coasts toward the second half of next week.
Outside of a prolonged period of swells, resulting in rough surf,
dangerous rips currents, and beach erosion, it is still too early
to determine if the region will experience additional impacts. To
maintain good situational awareness, please refer to the latest
official forecast from the National Hurricane Center
(www.nhc.noaa.gov).

Temperatures moderate through the period with highs in the 70s
Monday, to the lower and middles 80s for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Canadian high pressure to the north moves east today, allowing a
warm front to approach from the south.

VFR conditions are anticipated through the day today, with MVFR
ceilings and visibilities moving in by evening across NYC metro
terminals. Further east, these lower conditions will move in
several hours later.

N to NE winds 10-15KT shift to the NE/E late this morning and
into the afternoon. Speeds this afternoon increase to 10-20 kt
with gusts 20-25 kt by evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Late tonight-Monday...MVFR, with IFR possible. Rain, locally
heavy at times possible. E-SE winds 15-20KT, G20-30KT.
.Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR possible and a chance of showers/tstms.
SW winds G15-20KT possible.
.Tuesday night-Thursday...MVFR possible in a chance of showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will steadily deteriorate through the weekend,
particularly on the ocean, as swell builds and northeasterly to
easterly winds increase. The strongest winds are expected Sunday
night into Monday, and a gale watch is now in effect for the ocean
waters. SCA-level winds are expected elsewhere beginning Sunday
night. Winds will diminish late Monday, however seas will
remain well above SCA levels on the ocean due to long period
swells being generated by Tropical Cyclone Florence. To maintain
good situational awareness, please refer to the latest official
forecast from the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov).

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Around one to two inches of rain with locally higher amounts is fcst
Sun thru Mon ngt, with the greatest amounts expected across
northeastern NJ into the Lower Hudson Valley. Although the main
threat right now is for minor urban and poor drainage flooding, a
more significant flood risk will be possible if the axis of hvy rain
ends up further e than expected attm. Any tstms Tue-Fri will be
capable of producing locally hvy rain.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is possible with this evening and again
during the morning high tide cycles across portions of the
south shore back bays of Kings, Queens and Nassau counties.

The combination of increasing astronomical tides from a new moon
occurring Sunday, an increasing easterly flow and building SE swells
will bring the potential for more widespread minor to locally
moderate coastal flooding beginning late Sunday and persisting into
early next week.

Tidal departures of 1 to 1 1/2 ft are all that is needed at most
locations for minor coastal flooding benchmarks to be met, however
some of locations on the south shore of Long Island and western LI
Sound only need between 1/4 and 3/4 ft.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     High Surf Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Monday
     for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday
     for ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MD/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...MD/DW
HYDROLOGY...MD/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service New York NY
629 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>074-078-079-176-177-092230-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
629 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet
National Weather Service warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ075-080-081-178-179-092230-
Kings (Brooklyn)-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
629 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.
   High Surf Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-092230-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
629 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet
National Weather Service warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ350-353-355-092230-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
629 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.