Alert archive / New York / Gale Warnings in 2018
Gale Warning 33, NWS New York, NY
NWS New York, NY issued this gale warning at Dec 21, 2018, 3:21 PM EST. It took effect at Dec 22, 2018, 4:39 AM EST. It was in force for 13 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 21, 2018, 3:21 PM EST (20:21 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 22, 2018, 4:39 AM EST
- Expired
- Dec 22, 2018, 6:00 PM EST
- In force
- 13 hr
- Issued by
- NWS New York, NY
The text
As transmitted.
383 WHUS71 KOKX 212021 MWWOKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 321 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ANZ353-355-220430- /O.CAN.KOKX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-181222T2300Z/ /O.EXB.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181222T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.GL.W.0033.181222T1100Z-181222T2300Z/ Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 321 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Gale Warning, which is in effect from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory has also been issued. This Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 6 AM EST Saturday. * WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt tonight. West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt on Saturday. Seas 8 to 13 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 34 to 47 kt are expected or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ345-220430- /O.CAN.KOKX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-181221T2300Z/ /O.EXA.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181222T2300Z/ South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 321 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 6 PM EST Saturday. * WINDS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west on Saturday. Gusts up to 30 kt. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ330-340-212300- /O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-181221T2300Z/ Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Peconic and Gardiners Bays- 321 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet on Eastern Long Island Sound. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 34 to 47 kt are expected or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ ANZ350-220430- /O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-181222T2300Z/ Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- 321 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...South winds 20 to 30 kt tonight becoming west on Saturday. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 34 to 47 kt are expected or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ ANZ335-338-220430- /O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181222T2300Z/ Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor- 321 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
5 follow-up statements
847 WHUS71 KOKX 212234 MWWOKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 534 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ANZ350-221100- /O.CAN.KOKX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-181222T2300Z/ /O.EXA.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181222T1100Z/ /O.EXA.KOKX.GL.W.0033.181222T1100Z-181222T2300Z/ Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- 534 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 14 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 34 to 47 kt are expected or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ330-340-221100- /O.CAN.KOKX.GL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-181221T2300Z/ /O.EXA.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181222T2300Z/ Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Peconic and Gardiners Bays- 534 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet on the Sound. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ353-355-221100- /O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181222T1100Z/ /O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0033.181222T1100Z-181222T2300Z/ Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 534 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 34 to 47 kt are expected or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ335-338-345-221100- /O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181222T2300Z/ Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 534 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... * WINDS...Southwest 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
325 WHUS71 KOKX 220939 MWWOKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 439 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 ANZ350-353-355-221745- /O.CAN.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181222T1100Z/ /O.EXT.KOKX.GL.W.0033.181222T0939Z-181222T2300Z/ Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 439 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 13 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 34 to 47 kt are expected or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ ANZ330-335-338-340-345-221745- /O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181222T2300Z/ Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 439 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...West 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ Maloit
131 WHUS71 KOKX 221546 MWWOKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 1046 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 ANZ350-353-355-222300- /O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-181222T2300Z/ Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 1046 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 34 to 47 kt are expected or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ ANZ330-335-338-340-345-222300- /O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181222T2300Z/ Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 1046 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS...West 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
182 WHUS71 KOKX 222110 MWWOKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 410 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 ANZ350-353-355-222300- /O.CON.KOKX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-181222T2300Z/ Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 410 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 11 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Gale Warning means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 34 to 47 kt are expected or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. && $$ ANZ330-335-338-340-345-230515- /O.EXT.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181223T0600Z/ Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 410 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY... * WINDS...West 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
678 WHUS71 KOKX 222308 MWWOKX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 608 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 ANZ355-230715- /O.EXP.KOKX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-181222T2300Z/ /O.EXB.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181223T1100Z/ Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 608 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY... ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 6 AM EST Sunday. * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ350-353-230715- /O.EXP.KOKX.GL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-181222T2300Z/ /O.EXB.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181223T2200Z/ Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- 608 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY... ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Small Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 5 PM EST Sunday. * WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 feet. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$ ANZ330-335-338-340-345-230600- /O.CON.KOKX.SC.Y.0117.000000T0000Z-181223T0600Z/ Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 608 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY... * WINDS...West 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Small Craft Advisory means that sustained wind speeds or frequent gusts of 25 to 33 kt and/or seas of 5 ft or higher are expected or occurring, and hazardous to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these conditions. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 21, 1:28 PM EST, 1 hour 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 21, 1:28 PM EST, 1 hour 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
128 PM EST Fri Dec 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Intensifying low pressure will track up the spine of the
Appalachians into this evening. The low will move across New
England tonight and then into southeastern Canada on Saturday.
The low moves well to the north Saturday night as weak high
pressure builds into the region. A weak frontal system moves
through Sunday night into Monday. High pressure returns Tuesday
and Wednesday. Another low pressure system approaches for the
late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Axis of heavy rain continues to gradually shift east across Long
Island and Connecticut. Flooding is still expected with rainfall
rates 1 to 2 inches per hour possible. Rainfall rates along the
Hudson River corridor including NYC metro will be much less with
generally light to occasionally moderate rainfall.
The Flood Watch will remain in place. Minor river and stream
flooding is ongoing across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley.
Minor flooding may still occur even in areas where rainfall
rates have dropped off due to the significant rain already
observed. 1 to over 2 inches has already been observed. A
widespread event total of 2 to 3 inches is still forecast.
The HRRR and the RAP continue to verify much better with
current obs and VAD wind profiles regarding the low level jet.
Have cancelled the wind advisory for Nassau County and southern
Fairfield. Will hold onto the wind advisory further east for now
due to the bands of heavy rain and proximity of the low level
jet. However, it appears the heavy rain is only stabilizing the
boundary layer with winds weakening. The remaining portion of
the wind advisory may need to be dropped sooner if stronger
winds do not materialize.
12z OKX sounding shows a significant low level inversion with
surface temperature around 57 degrees and a 950 mb temperature
around 61 degrees. Do not see the inversion mixing out into the
afternoon, especially with temperatures well in the warm sector
struggling to get to 60 degrees due to the colder water
temperatures.
Of note the 12z OKX Precipitable Water was 1.66 inches. This is
close to the maximum observed precipitable water for the month
of December based on SPC Sounding Climatology.
Record high temperatures have already been set at ISP, BDR, and
LGA. Record daily precipitation records may be broken for
December 21 as well. See climate section below. Temps will be in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Patchy fog is also occurring and will continue through the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The long wave trough and attendant low level jet/moisture axis
quickly shift east of the area tonight. Although there will
still be potential for showers given the lingering upper
disturbance, rainfall rates/accumulations will be lighter
compared to today. The cold front then moves through during the
morning, with strong cold advection leading to yet another non
diurnal trend as temperatures gradually lower through the day.
Winds will remain breezy following the frontal passage.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather is expected Saturday night and Sunday as weak high
pressure builds south of the region. A weak shortwave then
passes over the region Sunday night into Monday. While the
system looks fairly weak, will introduce at least some slight
chance/chance pops for snow showers. No accumulations are
expected with the snow showers.
Drier weather is expected Monday night through Wednesday with high
pressure over the region.
The next chance of precipitation comes on
Thursday as the next low pressure and frontal system approach the
region. Will keep chance POPs in the forecast however, timing and
placement of the surface low remains uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
***High Impact Event Today***
A warm front remains to the north of the terminals today.
Mostly IFR with occasional MVFR possible late day, then
improving to MVFR this evening and possibly to VFR overnight.
Shra returns later this afternoon/early evening, however
steadier rain this aftn east of the city. Low level wind shear
at 2000 ft and lower will remain east of the city over the next
hour or two. Winds at 2000 ft may however increase back towards
40-45kt for a few hours early this evening.
Winds mostly SE-S this aftn around 10 kt, gusts confined to
mainly east of the city.
NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
KJFK TAF Comments: Timing for prevailing MVFR may be off by an
hour or two.
KLGA TAF Comments: Timing for prevailing MVFR may be off by an
hour or two.
KEWR TAF Comments: Timing for prevailing MVFR may be off by an
hour or two.
KTEB TAF Comments: Timing for prevailing MVFR may be off by an
hour or two.
KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional or prevailing MVFR possible
tonight.
KISP TAF Comments: Timing for prevailing MVFR may be off by an
hour or two.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday...VFR. W winds G25-35KT.
.Saturday night-Sunday...VFR. WNW-NW winds G20-30KT for Saturday
evening.
.Sunday night...Chance of MVFR in scattered snow showers.
.Monday...Chance MVFR in rain/snow showers early, then VFR with
chc NW wind G20KT.
-Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Strongest winds have not materialized over the waters due to
strong inversion around 1500 ft. Still could see wind gusts 35
to 40 kt on the eastern waters this afternoon. However, there
will likely be a lull in strongest winds with possible SCA or
even below SCA winds for a time. The only changes to marine
headlines are for the NY Harbor and western Sound. A small craft
advisory is now in effect on these waters through Saturday.
Since the gale warning is already up through Saturday on the
ocean, do not want to make any changes to the headline with the
expectation the winds increase to gales again tonight and
continue into Saturday.
The center of the low will track through western upstate New
York and into southeastern Canada tonight. There will be a brief
period of time when winds and gusts on the ocean waters are
below gale force this evening, and remain around SCA levels on
the remainder of the waters.
Gale force gusts will return on the ocean waters tonight and
likely remain into Saturday as a cold front moves through the
waters. Winds and gusts across the rest of the waters will be at
SCA levels tonight into Saturday night. However, with the gale
warning in effect through today will not issue a SCA for the
remainder of the waters until the gale warning is over. Winds
and gusts will then be diminishing across the waters Sunday.
Wind gusts on the non ocean waters are expected to be below SCA
levels Sunday, with the ocean waters falling below late Sunday
morning into Sunday afternoon.
Winds then remain below advisory levels into the midweek
period.
Ocean seas will be elevated, well above 5 feet, into Saturday
night. Seas gradually subside late Saturday night into Sunday
evening from west to east, falling below SCA levels across the
ocean waters late Sunday into Sunday evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A flood watch remains in effect. A widespread 2-3 inches of
rainfall total is still expected areawide. Locally higher
amounts are possible and some locations could reach around 4
inches. The heaviest rainfall axis is now located across Long
Island and Connecticut with rainfall rates 1 to 2 inches per
hour. This axis will continue shifting east into the afternoon.
Outside of this band of heavy rain, rainfall rates will be much
lighter.
Flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas
remains possible. Minor river flooding is occurring on fast
responding streams in NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. The
Passaic River at Pine Brook is forecast to go into moderate
flooding Friday night.
No significant precipitation is forecast Saturday through the
middle of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels have receded below minor flood thresholds from
this morning high tide. The high tide cycle for tonight is much
lower, with 2 to 2 1/2 ft or surge needed for minor flooding.
Water levels are expected to stay below minor flood thresholds,
although the most vulnerable western Great South Bay and SW CT
locales having potential for water levels to near minor coastal
thresholds.
Better chance for localized minor coastal flooding appears to
be with the Saturday morning high tide, when only around 1 ft
or surge is needed for minor coastal flooding. At this point,
appears that lower NY/NJ harbor, Jamaica Bay, Western Great
South Bay, and SW CT shoreline will be susceptible. Since this
is an early morning high tide, will issues a coastal flood
statement. Will have to monitor tidal trends this evening to
determine is an upgrade to advisory is needed anywhere.
Along the Atlantic shoreline, breaking surf of 9-13 ft and
elevated water levels poses a risk for areas of dune erosion
during the times of high tide Friday evening and Saturday
morning. 3 to 6 ft surf at Orient Pt will pose a shoreline
erosion threat as well.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record temperatures and precipitation are possible for December
21 at the following sites. NYC previously achieved a record
record high of 65 in 2013 that is not expected to be broken.
Precipitation record for December 21 are also possible.
Maximum Temperatures for Friday, December 21:
Site Record Year Forecast
KEWR 64 2013 62
KBDR 60 1957 58
KLGA 61 2011 61
KJFK 59 2011 60
KISP 59 1973 61
Precipitation Records for Friday, December 21:
Site Record Year
KEWR 2.00 1973
KBDR 1.49 1973
KNYC 2.49 1973
KLGA 1.92 1973
KJFK 1.32 1973
KISP 1.81 1973
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NYC Central Park winds are out of service until further notice.
Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order.
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Saturday for CTZ005>012.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ007-008-
010>012.
NY...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ078>081.
NJ...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Saturday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ335-338.
Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MD
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 21, 11:23 AM EST, 3 hours 58 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 1123 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>070-221630- Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex- Western Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester- 1123 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. CTZ007-008-221630- Northern Middlesex-Northern New London- 1123 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ANZ330-340-221630- Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Peconic and Gardiners Bays- 1123 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ANZ335-338-221630- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- New York Harbor- 1123 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ANZ350-353-355-221630- Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 1123 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. CTZ009-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-176>179-221630- Southern Fairfield-Hudson-Eastern Essex-Eastern Union- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 1123 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ANZ345-221630- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- 1123 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-221630- Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London- Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk- Southeastern Suffolk- 1123 AM EST Fri Dec 21 2018 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Dec 21, 11:58 AM EST, 3 hours 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1158 AM EST FRI DEC 21 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1154 AM FLOOD LODI 40.88N 74.08W
12/21/2018 BERGEN NJ EMERGENCY MNGR
MAIN STREET IS CLOSED AT ROUTE 46 DUE TO FLOODING FROM
THE SADDLE RIVER.
&&
FEBLocal storm report, Dec 21, 12:18 PM EST, 3 hours 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1218 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0855 AM FLASH FLOOD ANNSVILLE 41.31N 73.93W
12/21/2018 WESTCHESTER NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
STATE ROUTE 6/202 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING BETWEEN THE
BEAR MOUNTAIN BRIDGE AND THE ANNSVILLE CIRCLE.
&&
FEBLocal storm report, Dec 21, 12:30 PM EST, 2 hours 51 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1230 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1229 PM FLASH FLOOD DIX HILLS 40.80N 73.34W
12/21/2018 SUFFOLK NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
NORTHERN STATE PARKWAY CLOSED WESTBOUND AT DEER PARK
AVENUE DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
FEBLocal storm report, Dec 21, 12:40 PM EST, 2 hours 41 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1240 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1120 AM FLASH FLOOD SMITHTOWN 40.86N 73.21W
12/21/2018 SUFFOLK NY LAW ENFORCEMENT
PRIMROSE LANE IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
FEBLocal storm report, Dec 21, 12:56 PM EST, 2 hours 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1256 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1255 PM FLASH FLOOD MERIDEN 41.54N 72.80W
12/21/2018 NEW HAVEN CT LAW ENFORCEMENT
ROUTE 15 CLOSED NORTHBOUND AT EXIT 68W DUE TO FLOODING.
&&
FEBLocal storm report, Dec 21, 2:23 PM EST, 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
223 PM EST FRI DEC 21 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ORIENT 41.14N 72.30W
12/21/2018 M65 MPH SUFFOLK NY TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
JEThe office that day
Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 4:29 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Orange, Rockland | 3 hr |
| Dec 21, 5:35 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Westchester | 3 hr |
| Dec 21, 6:04 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Queens, Richmond and 1 more | 3 hr |
| Dec 21, 6:54 AM EST | Areal Flood Warning | OKX | Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Westchester | 3 hr |
| Dec 21, 7:48 AM EST | Flash Flood Warning | OKX | Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Queens, Richmond | 107 min |
| Dec 21, 8:27 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Westchester | 4 hr |
| Dec 21, 8:54 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Nassau, Suffolk | 4 hr |
| Dec 21, 9:57 AM EST | Areal Flood Warning | OKX | Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Westchester | 3 hr |
| Dec 21, 10:12 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Bronx, Kings, Nassau, New York, Queens, Richmond | 3 hr |
| Dec 21, 10:47 AM EST | Flash Flood Warning | OKX | Nassau, Suffolk | 3 hr |
| Dec 21, 11:09 AM EST | Areal Flood Warning | OKX | Rockland, Westchester | 111 min |
| Dec 21, 11:22 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | OKX | 51 hr | |
| Dec 21, 11:37 AM EST | Flash Flood Warning | OKX | Suffolk | 2 hr |
| Dec 21, 12:24 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Orange, Putnam | 111 min |
| Dec 21, 1:00 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | OKX | Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Westchester | 3 hr |
| Dec 21, 1:09 PM EST | Coastal Flood Statement | OKX | Kings, Nassau, New York, Queens, Richmond, Westchester | 22 hr |
| Dec 21, 1:27 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Nassau, Suffolk | 4 hr |
| Dec 21, 1:47 PM EST | River Flood Warning | OKX | Orange, Rockland | 16 hr |
| Dec 21, 3:57 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | OKX | Rockland | 15 hr |
| Dec 21, 4:03 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Westchester | 3 hr |
| Dec 21, 4:00 AM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Bergen, Essex, Passaic, Union | 3 hr |
| Dec 21, 4:36 AM EST | Areal Flood Warning | OKX | Bergen, Essex, Passaic, Union | 6 hr |
| Dec 21, 5:28 AM EST | River Flood Warning | OKX | Bergen | 19 hr |
| Dec 21, 8:36 AM EST | Areal Flood Warning | OKX | Bergen, Essex, Passaic, Union | 6 hr |
| Dec 21, 2:32 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | OKX | Bergen | 88 min |
| Dec 21, 10:55 AM EST | Flash Flood Warning | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region | 3 hr |
| Dec 21, 1:36 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region | 4 hr |
| Dec 21, 5:34 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Naugatuck Valley Planning Region | 4 hr |
| Dec 21, 6:53 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region | 2 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.