Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS New York, NY

305 
WGUS71 KOKX 142049
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
449 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

NYC005-047-061-081-142058-
/O.CAN.KOKX.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-180814T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Queens NY-Bronx NY-Kings NY-New York (Manhattan) NY-
449 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR QUEENS...BRONX...KINGS AND NEW YORK
(MANHATTAN) COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4063 7405 4066 7403 4068 7403 4068 7405
      4069 7406 4071 7404 4071 7403 4072 7402
      4075 7402 4081 7396 4089 7381 4088 7379
      4076 7382 4061 7405

$$

JM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
203 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system will be in the vicinity
today, then exit eastward tonight. Weak high pressure will then
slide across Wednesday into Thursday night. This will give way
to a frontal system and low pressure late Friday or Friday
night. Weak high pressure builds to the north this weekend and
into next week as a frontal boundary remains stalled just south
of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move into western
portions of the forecast area - over northeastern NJ and
southern NY. A few areas have seen over a quarter of an inch of
rainfall thus far. The upper low's forward/eastward progression
will keep cells moving and help mitigate flash flooding threat.
Thunderstorms not expected to become severe, but cannot rule out
a isolated strong wind gust.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and storms exit east tonight with the low aloft and a
surface trough shifting out of the tri-state area. Dry for the late
night hours, and dewpoints will be dropping into the 60s.

For Wednesday, partly to mostly sunny with high pressure ridging.
Forecast 850mb temps are 16-17C, and with a westerly flow, highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s across most spots. The westerly flow and
dewpoints aloft should help mix out surface dewpoints in the
afternoon, so have gone slightly below guidance. Heat indices should
therefore be just a degree or two higher than the actual
temperature. Spotty 95 degree heat index values could occur in the
city and immediate surrounding suburbs, but not enough coverage for
heat advisory consideration.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aloft, ridge builds ahead of next shortwave Wednesday night through
Friday. The shortwave will result in lowering heights across the
northeast this weekend before ridge builds Monday.

At the sfc, high pressure builds Wednesday night-Thursday. An area
of low pressure then tracks across the Great Lakes region Thursday
night and Friday, passing to the north. A warm front lifts to the
north ahead of the low early Friday, followed by a cold front that
looks to pass Friday night or early Saturday per global model
consensus.

The front slowly traverses across the area Saturday, and remains
stalled just south of the area Sat night-Monday as waves of low
pressure ride along it. In the meantime, weak high pressure builds
to the northwest.

As for sensible weather, dry conditions Wed night-Thursday will give
way to an increasing chance for showers/thunderstorms Friday and
into Friday night. With marginal instability in place, thunder
mention remains in the forecast, and cannot rule out heavy downpours
as PW values rise and exceed 2 inches as progged by global models.

In general, dry conditions are anticipated later Saturday through
Monday, with perhaps an isolated shower/thunderstorm through this
period.

As for temps, Thursday will be a hot day with many locations
reaching or exceeding 90 degrees. Even coastal locations should
reach 90 with westerly flow expected.

This could result in heat indices in the middle 90s. On Friday,
temps will be warm to hot, but more cloud cover and southerly flow
ahead of the cold front should keep 90 degree temperature readings
confined to NYC metro, and metro NJ.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level low will approach and move across the region
tonight. Weak high pressure will build into the region on
Wednesday.

Mainly VFR for the remainder of the TAF period, except MVFR or
even IFR conditions may develop in areas of showers and/or
thunderstorms. Any of these showers will be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall along with gusty/erratic winds.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be through
about 00z.

S-SW flow around 10 kt with a few gusts 15-18kt at the NYC
metros and KISP today. Winds become westerly tonight behind any
storms, with VFR re-developing everywhere.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Showers or thunderstorms may briefly lower
conditions to IFR.

KLGA TAF Comments: Showers or thunderstorms may briefly lower
conditions to IFR.

KEWR TAF Comments: Showers or thunderstorms may briefly lower
conditions to IFR.

KTEB TAF Comments: Showers or thunderstorms may briefly lower
conditions to IFR.

KHPN TAF Comments: Showers or thunderstorms may briefly lower
conditions to IFR.

KISP TAF Comments: Showers or thunderstorms may briefly lower
conditions to IFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday afternoon-Thursday...Mainly VFR.
.Friday...MVFR or lower conditions possible in late day/evening
showers/tstms from the NYC metros north/west.
.Saturday and Sunday...sub-VFR in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels today although any tstms
that develop could produce locally hazardous conditions. A brief
period of increasing southwesterly flow tonight into early Wednesday
could produce waves close to 5 ft, but will hold off on any SCA
issuance.

Winds and seas remain relatively tranquil Wednesday night through
Thursday night as weak high pressure builds. Southerly winds
increase somewhat Friday into Friday night ahead of low pressure and
a cold front. At this time, expect winds to remain below 25 kt, and
seas to remain just below 5 ft over the ocean waters. Non ocean
waters remain safely below SCA thresholds.

On Saturday, winds lighten as they shift to the west behind the
front, and seas will subside.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts through tonight should average below a half
inch, however locally up to an inch or two of rain is possible
in any heavier showers and/or thunderstorms. Any area that does
experience locally heavy rainfall, given wet antecedent
conditions, could experience localized flash flooding.

An approaching frontal system could produce showers/tstms with heavy
rain Friday afternoon and evening. Given PW increasing to over 2
inches and deep layer SW flow nearly parallel to the approaching
frontal boundary, there is potential for heavy rain with individual
cells and also training of cells, mainly from the NYC metro area
north/west.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide levels will be very close today and again tonight.
As such, will issue a coastal flood statement for tidal locations
along southern Nassau, and southern Queens, along the south shore
back bays. This is based on what was observed with the earlier high
tide cycle.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JC/PW
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
343 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

NYZ178-179-151945-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
343 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Coastal waters will near minor flooding during high tide tonight for
tidal locations along southern Nassau and southern Queens, along the
south shore back bays.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet
National Weather Service warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176-177-151945-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwestern Suffolk-
Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-Southeastern Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
343 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

An isolated risk for flash flooding exists this afternoon and
evening as showers and thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet
National Weather Service warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-151945-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
343 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet
National Weather Service warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches...warnings and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

KGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
229 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

NYZ067-141930-
Orange-
229 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...

At 229 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Newburgh,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Hail up to a half inch is possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Orange
County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4160 7409 4161 7407 4158 7405 4159 7395
      4153 7400 4150 7399 4146 7400 4144 7398
      4139 7402 4159 7424 4160 7422 4158 7413
      4161 7413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 227DEG 22KT 4149 7401

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
327 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

NJZ006-106-108-NYZ072>075-176>179-142030-
Hudson-Eastern Union-Eastern Essex-Northern Queens-Southern
Queens-Bronx-New York (Manhattan)-Northern Nassau-Richmond (Staten
Is.)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Southern Nassau-
327 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HUDSON...SOUTHEASTERN ESSEX...
QUEENS...RICHMOND...BRONX...KINGS...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) AND NASSAU
COUNTIES...

At 326 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Jersey City,
moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Jersey City, Jamaica, Flatbush, Flushing, Bayonne, Mott
Haven, Levittown, Hoboken, East Tremont, Freeport, Valley Stream,
Glen Cove, Plainview and Coney Island.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4076 7421 4078 7414 4076 7409 4079 7408
      4082 7402 4080 7399 4085 7395 4089 7383
      4089 7379 4084 7375 4088 7372 4086 7366
      4091 7364 4092 7351 4084 7345 4068 7343
      4056 7399 4060 7404 4054 7413
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 252DEG 26KT 4067 7406

JP