Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
612 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Cold front is approaching the Ohio River this afternoon. Convection
is on the upswing across the central KY area at this time.
Forcing expected to reach southward into the mid state by late
this afternoon and early evening. Gfs 18z neg energy indicates
that a cap is still in place. This should erode as the afternoon
wears on and the vertical lift picks up. Most models very stingy
with the convective development through this evening. Will go
ahead and lean toward the nam/hr3 solutions and go above guidance,
a bit. However, we are not currently outlooked. Capes come up but
w-e omegas to match the approaching front are difficult to
discern. Maybe a few strong storms, mainly along and west of I-65
where capes and forcing may be a little stronger. Will include a
late afternoon period. Pops for the late aft and evening periods
will generally range from 30 percent to as high as 60 percent.
Otw, td delta values to remain close to zero and therefore, the
low 12z dewpoint depressions could yield some patchy fog once
again.

Moving on, on Sunday the positioning of the boundary looks to be
directly across the mid state with little movement indicated. To
the north of the boundary, uniform northerly flow expected. Upper
flow showing some divergence but lowering mrh values and lower
level subsidence should keep conditions pop free. To the south of
the boundary, maybe an isol after shower or tstm so will keep 20
pops going.

On Monday, a profound intrusion of lower mrh values is indicated.
Cape to cap ratios turn sharply negative so no pops will be
included. Dewpoints drop into the lower to mid 60s so not
refreshingly less humid but slightly better. Near term temps
looking very seasonal for mid Aug.

In the ext fcst, initially, high pressure will stack across the
region. Then the pattern will morph into a disturbance ridden
westerly upper level flow. Pops will heighten on Thu and into Fri
when a frontal boundary will be on approach. The boundary will
weaken and never quite make it through our area. The moisture
channel, however, will remain in tact with descent pops into the
weekend.

The extended temperatures over the period will start out a few
degrees above normal. Then the mercury will drift downward toward
normal for highs as moisture and pops increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are approaching from the north
at issuance time. VCTS might be better suited, but KBNA/KMQY might
see direct impact from these storms over the next couple of hours.
Will maintain the TEMPO groups to handle this through 01Z. VFR
will continue until late tonight when fog might become an issue
once again. Will maintain the IFR vis at KCKV/KCSV/KMQY as fog
will likely be enhanced by this evening's precipitation.

Winds will be light out of the north most of this cycle, shy of
any northerly wind gusts from this evening's storms.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........Unger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
213 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-121915-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
213 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong thunderstorms are possible this late this afternoon and
into the early evening hours. Storms should move into areas north
of I-40 between 4 and 6 pm, push through the Nashville metro area
between 5 and 8 pm and begin weakening south of I-40 as we lose
the heating of the day. Main concern will be strong gusty winds
and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

27

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