Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
137 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...

A broken line of convection is currently making its way across
Middle Tennessee, somewhat similar to yesterday's activity, albeit
with less severity. Despite the presence of a weak surface ridge
bisecting the mid state this afternoon, another upper trough
approaching from the west is once again providing the lift and
focusing necessary for today's convection. Additional activity
forming over West Tennessee may cross the river later on, but the
latest HRRR suggests this progressive line of storms may be the
strongest we'll see today. Atmospheric models suggest a
persistently amplified upper pattern that will send a series of
shortwaves across Middle Tennessee through Sunday night, and then
a strong upper ridge developing over the region starting on
Monday. So look for a decrease in POP's lasting at least through
the middle of next week. However, the upper pattern will remain
amplified even during this nadir of active weather, and both the
GFS and Euro bring another shortwave into Middle Tennessee by
about Thursday, with a corresponding increase in POP's. Forecast
soundings continue to show only modest levels of instability for
the foreseeable future, and the SPC isn't hinting at anything
severe for Middle Tennessee in its latest convective outlooks. As
for temperatures, readings will remain at or slightly below normal
until the middle of next week. Even then, highs will only top out
in the low 90's. So no heat-related issues are anticipated for at
least the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the
area. CSV will see this main line of storms arrive between 18Z and
19Z bringing potential IFR conditions with it. Another band of
showers developing in Western TN will move into CKV between 19Z
and 20Z bringing MVFR conditions along with it. Have left in
VCTS/VCSH at all terminals through the afternoon hours. MVFR may
develop overnight at CSV and CKV around 08Z. Fog will dissipate
around 12Z.

In terms of additional showers at all terminals, short term models
are struggling with timing early tomorrow morning through mid day
tomorrow. Have left out any mention of showers due to the
uncertainty and will re-address the issue in a later TAF cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  85  69  90  71 /  50  60  20  20  20
Clarksville    69  84  67  88  69 /  50  50   0  20  20
Crossville     66  78  64  82  66 /  50  70  30  20  20
Columbia       69  84  67  88  69 /  50  60  10  20  20
Lawrenceburg   68  84  65  87  67 /  50  60  20  20  20
Waverly        68  84  67  88  69 /  50  50   0  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........MacDonald

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
815 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-101315-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
815 AM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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