Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
251 PM CDT Sun May 6 2018

.DISCUSSION...

After a foggy start, the day has been sunny with temperatures
warming into the 70s to around 80. Recently a few patches of
cumulus have popped up, and a couple of these cumulus clouds have
grown tall enough to become showers. Looking upstream, at least a
couple of strong thunderstorms were detected over Western Ky. For
this evening, we will continue to see development of scattered
showers and thunderstorms as a shortwave trough comes down from
the northwest. Conditions will be unstable enough for a couple of
strong to marginally severe storms. Steep low to mid level lapse
rates, dry layers near the sfc and mid levels, and favorable wbz
values indicate the potential for localized strong wind gusts and
hail. Shear looks weak, so any severe storms will be very
localized and brief. Coverage this evening is expected to be 20-40
percent. Coverage and intensity will decrease after midnight, but
there will still be some shower/storm potential as a weak surface
boundary drops across the area in the late night hours. By
daybreak Monday, lows will fall to the mid 50s. There may be a few
patches of fog around daybreak, but not as much as we saw this
morning.

Our new forecast for Monday will be dry. The latest models show
high pressure pushing in from the north and shutting off the rain
potential. Skies will be mainly sunny with highs in the 70s.

Dry wx will continue with high pressure for Monday night and
Tuesday as well. Lows will be seasonably cool, in the lower 50s,
with highs in the 70s.

Temps will warm up Wednesday as heights rise ahead of an
approaching shortwave. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s will result
in some destabilization, and the approaching system could bring a
few showers or thunderstorms.

Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous Wednesday
night through Thursday, but we will continue to advertise
"scattered" coverage as the bulk of the energy with the shortwave
trough will lift off to our north. The atmosphere will
destabilize, so a few strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible Wednesday evening and Thursday.

The trend going into the weekend will be for warmer temperatures
and only isolated thunderstorms if any. High temperatures will
push well into the 80s late week, with some spots likely to touch
90 for the first time this year. Increasingly muggy air will
result in lows in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. Some cumulus and cirrus will affect airports this TAF period
along with northwest winds up to 11 knots. An isolated SHRA/TSRA
cannot be ruled out near airports late this afternoon into the
evening but confidence is too low to include in TAFs attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      58  77  53  78  55 /  40  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    55  75  51  76  54 /  30   0   0   0   0
Crossville     55  72  50  74  54 /  40  10   0  10   0
Columbia       57  77  51  77  53 /  30  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   55  77  50  77  53 /  30  10   0   0   0
Waverly        55  77  52  77  55 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........Shamburger

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
256 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2018

TNZ006-007-062100-
Robertson TN-Montgomery TN-
256 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHWESTERN ROBERTSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 255 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pembroke, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville, Adams and Cedar Hill.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3656 8691 3645 8711 3645 8715 3642 8715
      3641 8716 3643 8717 3641 8718 3641 8721
      3634 8729 3664 8748 3665 8700
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 322DEG 23KT 3675 8740

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2018

TNZ005-062100-
Stewart TN-
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL STEWART COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

At 300 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Land Between The Lakes Area, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Big Rock and Land Between The Lakes.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8764 3656 8763
      3638 8786 3657 8804 3660 8804 3665 8807
      3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 316DEG 15KT 3673 8803

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