Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
624 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms popped up once again today and by this
evening are expected to be confined mainly to southern and eastern
parts of the Mid-State, before undergoing the typical diurnal
dissipation.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop yet again on
Sunday, especially over southern and eastern areas, with very
similar conditions on Monday. It still looks like a band of
subsidence, on the outer fringes of subtropical storm Alberto,
will likely work its way northward into our area Sunday night into
Monday night, as Alberto's center approaches the Gulf Coast, and
should help keep convection limited to the scattered variety for
our neck of the woods. However, expect showers to become numerous
on Tuesday, as Alberto's main moisture field finally starts to
push into the Tennessee Valley. A few thunderstorms will also be
possible on Tuesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, but then should
diminish from the southwest, as the remnants of Alberto pull north
and east of Middle Tennessee.

Even though Alberto will be nothing more than a memory by late
week, our atmosphere will remain infected by sufficient moisture
to keep scattered showers and thunderstorms running each day.
There should be more sunshine, however, by late week, which will
allow highs to push back into the middle 80s to around 90 degrees
by next Friday and Saturday.

The bulk of our rains this upcoming week are expected to occur on
Tuesday and Wednesday, with the western two-thirds of Middle
Tennessee forecast to see between one and two inches of rain, with
locally higher amounts to around 3 inches possible. This will be
in areas just east of Alberto's circulation center, that is
forecast to track northward, very close to the Tennessee River,
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. An additional inch or so of
rain could fall Thursday and Friday, meaning that some folks could
see upwards of 4 inches during that four-day period. Localized
flooding could become a problem at some point during that four-day
period, and an ESF may be issued at some point over the next day
or so.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Radar trends show CKV, BNA, and MQY are VFR, while CSV could see
a possible shower or thunderstorm over the next few hours. All
sites recorded some precipitation this afternoon so have MVFR VIS
reduction late tonight into early tomorrow. BNA and MQT will need
to be monitored for possible IFR VIS late as they saw the more
significant rainfall. After 14Z expect VFR conditions with SCT
dirunal CU and lesser chances for convection than today.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........05