Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Nashville, TN

421 
WWUS54 KOHX 221857
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
157 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

TNC087-221907-
/O.CAN.KOHX.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-180922T1915Z/
Jackson TN-
157 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3643 8555 3639 8550 3636 8550 3627 8551
      3626 8553 3625 8554 3623 8557 3623 8559
      3622 8561 3624 8572 3645 8566
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 202DEG 18KT 3632 8560 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The forecast was recently updated to refine hourly trends for
rain chances and temperatures.

At mid morning, light showers were occurring over the northwest
part of our area, including Clarksville, Dover, and Erin. Most of
the showers through the rest of the morning will remain over the
northwest, with around 20-30 percent coverage of showers
elsewhere. Skies will vary from overcast in the northwest to
partly sunny southeast.

These conditions are evidence of a stalled boundary that bisects
Middle Tennessee from northeast to southwest. The greatest
coverage of rainfall will be on the cool side of the boundary,
especially over the northwest where a couple of upper level
impulses will contribute to lift mid to late afternoon. The warm
side of the front will be mostly rain free this morning, but
showers and thunderstorms will become numerous through the
afternoon with heating/instability. A couple of strong
thunderstorms with 40 mph wind gusts could occur over the
southeast half of our area as capes push over 1000 J/kg.

There is potential for isolated flash flooding with high
precipitable water values and a stalled boundary. Again, isolated
in nature, so a Flash Flood Watch is not warranted at this time.
We will just have to monitor clusters of thunderstorms that last
for more than an hour or 2 at a particular location. Parts of
Maury, Lawrence, and Wayne had several inches of rain overnight,
so these locations may have the greatest risk.

Temperatures were raised in the morning update. Highs will reach
the 70s northwest of BNA, with 80s elsewhere, especially in the
more sunny areas of the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A stalled front over the area will give us messy wx and some messy
tafs with lots of amendments.

Scattered TSRA will form through the afternoon and evening with
mainly MVFR conditions, Expect brief IFR within the heavy
downpours. A few storms may produce gusts around 40KT.

SHowers will become more widespread tonight through Sunday morning
with isold TSRA. Mostly MVFR, but CKV will drop to IFR.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
641 AM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-231145-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
641 AM CDT Sat Sep 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Flash flooding may become an issue as several areas have already
received 2 to 4 inches of rain. An additional 1 to 3 inches is
possible today and tonight, and while there is low confidence on
the exact location of the new rain, training storms throughout the
day will increase the flooding risk generally for those west of
the Cumberland Plateau.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Excessive rainfall in possible Sunday and Monday, generally west
of the Cumberland Plateau. This extra rain could exacerbate
flooding concerns both days. Rises on area rivers might also
become a problem by the start of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may become necessary for rainfall measurements
and flooding reports today and tomorrow.

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
133 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

TNZ031>033-221900-
Putnam TN-Overton TN-Jackson TN-
133 PM CDT SAT SEP 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OVERTON...JACKSON
AND NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 133 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Baxter, or 10 miles south of Gainesboro, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesboro, Baxter, Granville, Whitleyville and Cummins Falls State
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3635 8536 3609 8566 3617 8581 3618 8579
      3619 8580 3621 8581 3621 8579 3622 8578
      3624 8578 3625 8580 3625 8581 3648 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 212DEG 21KT 3621 8571

13