Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Nashville, TN

422 
WWUS54 KOHX 072325
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

TNC061-175-177-072335-
/O.CAN.KOHX.SV.W.0152.000000T0000Z-180807T2345Z/
Van Buren TN-Warren TN-Grundy TN-
625 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN VAN BUREN...
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN AND NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3546 8584 3571 8559 3557 8542 3556 8545
      3555 8546 3554 8554 3553 8556 3553 8561
      3549 8554 3543 8554 3542 8551 3541 8551
      3540 8549 3539 8550 3533 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 235DEG 20KT 3551 8556 

$$

Barnwell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
306 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Another hot and fairly muggy afternoon across Middle Tennessee as
showers and a few thunderstorms sprinkle the radar currently. There
is a chance of some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms
developing this afternoon. Model soundings portray a weak cap in
place this afternoon with plenty of CAPE to get a few of these
storms going. Will monitor through the rest of the afternoon. If any
storms do become marginally severe, damaging winds is our primary
concern. Luckily, coverage of these showers will begin to decrease
shortly after sunset. Skies will become increasingly cloudy through
the second half of the overnight hours as showers move towards our
area.

The real question now will be when showers move in overnight and how
much rainfall we will see. Models have backed off a bit today
with PoP over the area, so tomorrow's showers may be more of periods
with numerous showers and periods without rather than showers the
entire day consistently. Timing is a little inconsistent between
models, but generally our northwestern counties could begin seeing
showers in the early AM hours with the rest of the area beginning to
see showers into the AM to lunchtime hour. PWAT values look to be
around 2", so there will be plenty of moisture available tomorrow to
get some periods of heavy downpours. Widespread flooding is not
expected, but would not be surprised if some localized flooding
occurs especially during periods of heavy rainfall and if one of
these rain bands sets up over an area. In terms of severe weather,
things still really do not look all too impressive. Will have about
2,300 J/kg of CAPE in the afternoon, but really think heavy
downpours will be the thing to keep an eye on.

An upper-level trough will remained draped over the Ohio River
Valley keeping our pattern pretty unsettled heading into the
weekend. Thursday appears to be the wettest day of the
bunch with likely showers throughout the day. Friday showers do
not appear to be as numerous as Thursday, but chance of showers
remains across our area especially over our southern counties. Think
showers may begin to back off a bit more by Saturday and Sunday and
should be primarily diurnally driven. Overall temps look to remain
near to below normal now through the weekend.

Model solutions begin to diverge by next Monday with the GFS
suggesting a weaker upper-level low pressure system that would allow
Middle TN to dry out towards the beginning to middle of next week.
Euro on the other hand allows the upper-level tough to extend deeper
into the southeast, keeping plenty of moisture in our area for
showers. Lean a bit towards the Euro given models were lining up
with this solution more yesterday. Due to the uncertainty, have just
left in slight chance of PoP for now in the extended period given
the uncertainty. Temps will remain near to a few degrees below
normal into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Surface ridge is situated to our immediate east
this afternoon as an upper trough approaches from the west.
Already a few showers are popping up on radar, but the morning
sounding from OHX also shows a partial cap in the mid-levels that
will at least help retard convection. Still, scattered
development is expected during the next few hours, so am including
VCTS/CB remarks for the afternoon portion of the TAF's. Am
leaving out overnight fog, as this seems to be the norm in our
current air mass. Expect more widespread activity tomorrow as the
aforementioned shortwave draws closer to Middle Tennessee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  88  72  87  72 /  40  60  50  60  30
Clarksville    72  85  71  84  70 /  40  60  50  60  20
Crossville     67  83  67  80  67 /  30  60  50  60  30
Columbia       72  87  70  85  69 /  40  60  50  60  40
Lawrenceburg   70  88  68  85  68 /  30  60  50  60  40
Waverly        71  86  70  82  68 /  40  60  50  60  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......MacDonald
AVIATION........08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-081030-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
1157 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across Middle
Tennessee this afternoon and evening, especially in our
northwestern counties. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any severe weather observed should be reported to the National
Weather Service.

MacDonald

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
544 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

TNZ077>079-072330-
Coffee TN-Grundy TN-Warren TN-
544 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COFFEE...
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN AND GRUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 543 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Tracy City, or 15 miles east of Manchester, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gruetli-Laager, Altamont, Coalmont, Palmer and Beersheba Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 8596 3570 8569 3562 8559 3553 8556
      3553 8561 3549 8554 3543 8554 3542 8551
      3541 8551 3540 8549 3539 8550 3538 8549
      3536 8551 3526 8582
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 232DEG 18KT 3538 8582

Barnwell