Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Nashville, TN

396 
WWUS54 KOHX 172217
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
517 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2018

TNC175-172226-
/O.CAN.KOHX.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-180317T2230Z/
Van Buren TN-
517 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL VAN BUREN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3569 8529 3557 8542 3556 8544 3559 8555
      3571 8555 3575 8527 3572 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 276DEG 46KT 3562 8519 

$$

Barnwell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
423 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today has panned out to be a beautiful mostly sunny day. However,
it's not over yet. There is still the potential for some isolated
strong to potentially severe storms to develop east of I-65 ,
especially along the Upper Cumberland Plateau as we head into the
early evening hours. Places west of there should see a pretty
quiet night. Currently a cold front is located just west of the
Tennessee River, but it will progress to the east tonight along
with a surface low over Kentucky. Temperatures will dip into the
40s overnight as winds shift out of the north following the
frontal passage. Winds will remain out of the north for most of
the day on Sunday keeping temperatures cooler than they were
today, but we should still warm into the upper 60s. By the
afternoon hours a warm front will lift north bringing an
increasing chance of showers and eventually thunderstorms to the
mid state.

By Monday morning a warm moist airmass will be in place and as
temperatures rise into the afternoon hours, the atmosphere will
become quite unstable. An upper level wave will approach from the
northwest Monday afternoon. This wave coupled with a surface low
will provide plenty of low level shear for storms to develop
rotation and bulk shear to produce persistent thunderstorms.
Models seem to be in decent agreement on the placement of the low
and on the severe possibilities. The best instability exists south
of I-40, but there is certainly enough instability indicated to
suggest strong to severe storms north of I-40. Soundings indicate
that some large hail will be possible, with damaging winds and
tornadoes remaining relevant threats. The main timing for severe
storms looks to be from the early afternoon hours into early
evening. The uncertainty in all of this lies with the movement of
the upper wave and surface low and whether or not we become as
unstable in the early afternoon hours as models are indicating. By
later in the evening the low and associated cold front will have
pushed east of the mid-state. Some wrap around moisture might
provide a few more showers overnight Monday as the system
continues to move east.

The next upper wave will enter the forecast on Tuesday afternoon
bringing another round of showers and cooler temperatures Tuesday
afternoon and Wednesday morning. Temps may get cool enough for
some places to see a few flurries mix with the rain late Tuesday
night. A break in the activity will come on Wednesday and Thursday
as the upper trough moves east. Heading into next weekend a
developing low will move toward the upper Mississippi Valley
bringing another wave of warm moist air and a chance of
thunderstorms to Middle Tennessee.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Light shwrs CSV should last only thru 17/13Z at
latest. Other terminals should experience significant decreasing
cloudiness behind line of shwrs. Sfc front moving into mid state
region this afternoon could result in iso to even sct shwrs/tstms
later this afternoon, but do not have enough confidence at this
point in location development to even mention VCTS wording CSV.
High level bkn cloudiness should stream across the mid state
region thru 18/12Z. Other than some temp IFR fog BNA and
potentially IFR/MVFR fog other locations this morning, VFR
conditions should prevail thru 18/12Z. Exception to this could be
at CSV, when after 18/09Z, enough residual low level moisture
pooling could support MVFR fog development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      45  65  50  72  46 /  20   0  80  80  60
Clarksville    40  60  47  68  41 /  10  10  80  80  50
Crossville     45  63  47  62  46 /  50   0  80  60  80
Columbia       45  66  51  71  46 /  20  10  70  70  50
Lawrenceburg   45  67  51  72  47 /  20  10  70  70  50
Waverly        44  64  49  69  42 /  10  10  80  80  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......11
AVIATION........19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
419 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-182130-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
419 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening
for northeastern portions of Middle TN. Damaging straight line
winds and large hail will be possible through 10 or 11 pm
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon and evening
for all of Middle TN. All severe threats will be possible,
including large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Monday afternoon and evening.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 inch
Winds >50 mph (Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Powerlines Down

27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
432 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2018

TNZ065-078-080-172215-
Van Buren TN-Warren TN-White TN-
432 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VAN BUREN...CENTRAL WARREN AND
SOUTHERN WHITE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 432 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
McMinnville, moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
McMinnville, Spencer, Morrison, Doyle, Virgin Falls State Natural
Area, Rock Island State Park and Fall Creek Falls State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3579 8526 3579 8527 3578 8526 3571 8527
      3558 8541 3559 8589 3579 8590 3588 8525
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 263DEG 32KT 3569 8581

Barnwell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
446 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2018

TNZ077>080-172230-
Coffee TN-Van Buren TN-Grundy TN-Warren TN-
446 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COFFEE...SOUTHWESTERN VAN
BUREN...SOUTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Manchester, moving east at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
McMinnville, Manchester, Spencer, Altamont, Morrison, Beersheba
Springs, Viola, Summitville and Fall Creek Falls State Park.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 107 and 113.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 8614 3564 8615 3564 8604 3566 8601
      3573 8537 3559 8540 3557 8542 3555 8546
      3553 8561 3549 8554 3543 8554 3542 8551
      3543 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 266DEG 42KT 3556 8602

Barnwell